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October
23rd
2004
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
The Birds and the Beans

by Jessica Polko

Both teams made changes to their rosters between the LCS and the World Series. 3B-R Kevin Youkilis will replace RHP Ramiro Mendoza, giving Boston 15 hitters and 10 pitchers. Despite the need for numerous relief innings in the ALCS, Mendoza only pitched two innings in the series. Since Manager Terry Francona does not appear to trust Mendoza in tight situations, the Red Sox are better off adding another pinch-hitter to the roster for when the series shifts to Busch Stadium. During the games at Busch Stadium, DH-L David Ortiz will play first base. Ortiz is not unfamiliar with first, as he's played the position in over 200 games during his major league career, including 34 this season. Having his bat in the lineup should more than compensate for the incidental defensive downgrade.

As he did during the regular season, C-R Doug Mirabelli will catch RHP Tim Wakefield's starts in the World Series. C-S Jason Varitek's unfamiliarity with Wakefield's knuckleball likely would lead to an excess of passed balls. Meanwhile, Mirabelli has performed admirably at the plate this year, hitting .281 with a .368 OBP and .525 SLG on 45 H, 12 2B, and 9 HR with a 19:46 BB:K in 160 AB, so the Red Sox are not making a huge offensive sacrifice.

St. Louis replaced LHP Steve Kline with RHP Al Reyes. I questioned the Cardinals' decision to carry Kline on their earlier post-season rosters in light of the 70 percent tendon tear in the index finger of his left hand. Considering Kline appears day-to-day at best due to the complications created by his gout, St. Louis would have been negligent to continue to roster him. Although RHP Julian Tavarez currently appears able to pitch despite the broken bones in his glove hand, the Cardinals did not need to carry two pitchers with questionable health into the World Series. Reyes pitched competently during September and should be able to cover an inning or two if St. Louis is forced to rely heavily on their pen.

For the games played at Fenway Park, OF-R So Taguchi will man left field while OF-R Reggie Sanders serves at the Cardinals' DH. Taguchi likely is better suited to man the Green Monster than OF-S Roger Cedeno. Despite experiencing some difficulty with lefties, Taguchi performed satisfactorily at the plate this year, hitting .291 with a .337 OBP and .419 SLG on 52 H, 10 2B, 2 3B, and 3 HR with a 12:23 BB:K and 6/9 SB% in 179 AB.

Game One: RHP Woody Williams at RHP Tim Wakefield
We expect Wakefield's knuckleball to stump the Cardinals batters at least one turn through the lineup and likely two. Meanwhile, Boston's offense should be able to get a piece of Williams, giving Wakefield a nice cushion. Consequently, we expect the Red Sox to win Game 1.

Game Two: RHP Matt Morris at RHP Curt Schilling
Given how well Schilling was able to pitch in Game 6 of the ALCS, we do not believe his ankle will create problems for him in this game. Even though St. Louis should be fairly familiar with his repertoire, we do not expect the Cardinals to be able to do much against him. We never like to see guys attempt to pitch on short rest in the playoffs when they've had no previous experience with it, and Morris will be pitching on three-days rest for the first time in his career. The Game 2 score should be quite lopsided in the Boston's favor.

Game Three: RHP Pedro Martinez at RHP Jeff Suppan
We would have preferred to see Martinez pitch at home, and with St. Louis returning home after two losses, we suspect the Cardinals' bats will demonstrate the power that made them the most productive offense in the National League. Suppan has pitched solidly this post-season and should be able to keep the Red Sox within range of St. Louis's offense, so the Cardinals should take Game 3.

Game Four: RHP Derek Lowe at RHP Jason Marquis
While Lowe normally requires strong defense behind his groundball pitching, David Ortiz's bat should be able to compensate for any problems caused by his move into the field. We do not expect Marquis to hold up to Boston's offense, so Lowe or Lowe and Bronson Arroyo will just need to keep St. Louis from putting too many crooked numbers on the board. The Red Sox should pull within one game with a Game 4 win.

Game Five: RHP Tim Wakefield at Woody Williams
Game 1 should give the Cardinals enough of a look at Wakefield to be able to drive him out early in Game 5, and Williams should be able to pull out a victory in front of his home field crowd, sending the series back to Fenway.

Game Six: RHP Matt Morris at RHP Curt Schilling
We expect Morris to remain fatigued after pitching on short rest in Game 2, while Schilling should stay strong as long as his ankle can endure a third procedure. Throw in a David Ortiz homer for good measure and Boston will win their first World Championship since 1918.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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