Yesterday, Montreal signed RHP Livan Hernandez to a three-year, $23M contract extension while also re-negotiating his salary for the 2004 season. Hernandez now reportedly will receive a salary of $4M in 2004 rather than $6M. His salary then will jump to $8M in 2005 and remain at $8M in 2006 before dropping to $7M in 2007.

Given the Expos' ownership status, the signing startled me, and I was initially dubious of the deal. However, after examining Hernandez's skills, I have reconsidered. Last season's 2.2 BB/9 seems abnormally low, but he demonstrated progress with his control in 2002, so he should be able to maintain a walk rate under 3 BB/9. After hitting a low of 5.5 K/9 in 2001, his strikeout rate has increased in each of the last three seasons, reaching 6.9 K/9 last year. I do not expect that trend to continue indefinitely, but it indicates he's capable of maintaining a K/9 between 6 and 7. Additionally, while his G-F isn't stunning, he keeps enough balls on the ground in order to avoid substantial home run problems. None of these figures is individually particularly impressive, but together they should add up to solid innings. I only anticipate serious trouble if Montreal allows their defense to significantly slump behind Hernandez. Despite his history of heavy workloads, Hernandez has remained healthy. There's no guarantee that he won't encounter arm problems in the future, but he does not enter this contract with pre-existing injury concerns. Talks on the extension reportedly sprang from Hernandez's desire to remain with the Expos, and the 29-year-old seems genuinely interested in contributing to the future of the organization.

Even after establishing an expectation of solid production from Hernandez, I questioned whether this contract was a wise investment for the Expos. While I feel that the bulk of their resources should be focused on their offense, I cannot deny that having a reliable source of innings is appealing when building a staff of young pitchers. The price of the deal is in line with what RHP Kelvim Escobar and RHP Sidney Ponson received and considerably less than that of RHP Bartolo Colon. I don't see a lot of upside in reducing his salary this season at the cost of paying him more in the future, however while potential purchasers of the Expos might prefer not to have so much already committed to one player, the deal shouldn't be an albatross that discourages otherwise interested investors. Consequently, even though the contract isn't one I would have pursued, I have difficulty finding fault with the signing.