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April 5th 2004 |
Out of the Frying Pan |
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by Jessica Polko Yesterday, Cleveland dealt OF-S Milton Bradley to the Dodgers for OF-R Franklin Gutierrez and a player to be named later. The Indians were planning to enter the season with Bradley as their centerfielder, but an incident on March 31st led the team to decide to trade him immediately. During Cleveland's March 31st game at Houston's spring facilities, Bradley failed to run hard when he hit a popup into shallow centerfield in the second inning. The ball dropped and rather than reaching second base as he would have if he'd been running aggressively, Bradley had to stop at first base. Manager Eric Wedge pulled Bradley from the game in the third inning after learning that the centerfielder's groin was feeling tight. Wedge clearly seemed suspect of the injury and displeased with Bradley's effort, but the incident might not have led to Bradley's banishment from the organization, if the 25-year-old had not left the ballpark in a cab without permission in the sixth inning rather than staying with his teammates through the remainder of the game. Bradley has a history of poor self-discipline, and while Cleveland at one point thought he was maturing, the Indians felt this latest episode indicated that matters likely only would escalate. While Bradley was asked to leave camp, Cleveland wasn't willing to throw away someone with Bradley's baseball abilities without receiving considerable compensation. The Indians optioned him to AAA Buffalo on Saturday and would have opened the season with Bradley in the minors, if GM Mark Shapiro had been unable to complete a trade. Although L.A. clearly needed to upgrade their offense this past off-season given their dismal showing at the plate in 2003, the Dodgers only timidly pursued free agents due to their ownership transition. By the time that the new regime was in place, most clubs had already positioned their teams for the 2004 season. Consequently, it appeared L.A. would have to wait until another club decided to make a move during the season before the Dodgers would be able to make more than minor improvements to their offense. Bradley's indiscretion created an unexpected opportunity for the Dodgers to enhance their club immediately. For the moment, Los Angeles appears to be making light of Bradley's reputation. According to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, DePodesta even commented that Bradley has "done more community service in Cleveland than any player by a long shot." I'm curious as to whether that holds true if you subtract court ordered community service from the totals, since we know he was assigned 40 hours of community service this spring as a part of his punishment for driving away from a traffic stop in August of 2003 without signing his speeding ticket. I generally believe that giving Bradley a second chance with a fairly clean slate is a good idea. Discipline problems can be blown out of proportion or exacerbated by expectations of misbehavior. Hopefully, leaving Cleveland to return to the L.A. area where he was born and lives will have a settling effect on him. Meanwhile, the Dodgers definitely can benefit from his baseball skills. However, I hope that DePodesta's remarks simply were cheeky spin rather than an ignorance of the facts. Bradley compliments excellent patience at the plate with solid power and speed skills. While he's not a strong fly ball hitter, I expect his power to continue increasing for a few more years as he nears his physical peak. Bradley's speed also diminishes the downside of his unimposing ground-fly ratio, though his baserunning skills could use some attention. For a 25-year-old, Bradley's injury history is somewhat extensive, though it includes a few unlikely to recur such as a fractured eye socket and an appendectomy. Last season, he missed time with a strained right hamstring and a bruised lower back, but he logged more plate appearances in the majors than he had in any previous season and sandwiched that playing time between the injuries. Theoretically, his performance in that consistent environment should give us a better picture of his skills than his production from previous seasons when he was bouncing back and forth from the minors to the majors between injuries. I expect a small drop off in his average and OBP, because those numbers were significantly above his career standards. However, the improvements were supported by growth in his already solid walk rate, so I find it unreasonable to believe he'll automatically revert to his former levels. Dodger Stadium may have a slight affect on his average, but Jacobs Field was already suppressing his BA so I don't think the influence will be extensive. More intriguing is the fact that L.A.'s home has been increasingly more homer-friendly over the last couple of seasons while Cleveland's park significantly muffles homer run power. Consequently, I anticipate 20 HR and a .295 BA from Bradley in 2004. He will take over in centerfield for the Dodgers, pushing Dave Roberts to left, Juan Encarnacion to right, and Shawn Green to first base. Green wasn't particularly comfortable playing first this spring, but he's willing to make the switch if L.A. believes it improves the team. If Green were to remain in the outfield, Roberts would become a forth outfielder while Robin Ventura covered first. Franklin Gutierrez signed with the Dodgers as a non-drafted free agent out of Venezuela in 2000. Last season at A+ Vero Beach in the Florida State League, Gutierrez hit .282 with a .345 OBP and .513 SLG on 120 H, 28 2B, 5 3B, and 20 HR with a 39:111 BB:K and 17/22 SB% in 425 AB. His plate discipline, power, and speed all look solid but not overly impressive until you consider that he was only 20 at the time they were compiled. He performed similarly in his short stint at AA Jacksonville in the Southern League after his late season promotion. The 21-year-old should spend most of 2004 at AA, since the Indians currently are comfortable with their major league outfield. If he maintains this production through AA and AAA, I suspect he'll earn a mid-season promotion as an injury replacement during the 2005 season and have a full-time job by 2006. However, his age allows him to spend extra time in the minors if he hits a snag while still reaching the majors well before his physical prime. Considering that everyone knew the Indians were going to trade Bradley, I'm impressed that Cleveland acquired a prospect of this quality. However, I fully support the Dodgers' decision to deal Gutierrez. While his upside is evident and there was talk of him shooting to the majors as soon as the second half of 2004, he's not even really been tested in the upper levels of the minors where there are different challenges from those that face A+ players. The player to be named later supposedly will be a prospect of some note. Cleveland is picking from a list, as both sides wanted to complete the initial portion of the trade quickly. However, the PTBNL would have to be one of a select few players in order to make me feel the Dodgers made a mistake with this trade, and I already like it from the Indians' perspective.
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