Yesterday, the Yankees dealt Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, and Randy Choate to Montreal for Javier Vazquez. New York required a high quality pitcher to replace Roger Clemens in their rotation and sought to counter Boston's acquisition of Curt Schilling. Meanwhile, Vazquez indicated to the Expos that he likely would not re-sign with Montreal as a free agent after the 2004 season, so GM Omar Minaya wanted to deal him for players that would benefit the organization for years to come.

Vazquez compiled a 241:57 K:BB with 198 H and 28 HR allowed in 230.2 IP for a 3.24 ERA over 34 starts in 2003. His strikeout rate fluttered to just below 7 in 2002 after two seasons of posting more than 8 K/9 over greater than 200 innings each year. He rebounded to a stunning 9.4 K/9 in 2003, but those strikeouts led to troublingly high pitch counts in several of his games. His workload raises a red flag for possible injury trouble, however I don't see anything in his numbers to indicate he's already hurt or that the exertion will catch up with him very soon. Even if an injury causes him to lose velocity, he should remain an effective pitcher due to his control skills. The 27-year-old has allowed a greater percentage of flyballs over the last two seasons, but Yankee Stadium will be a more pitcher friendly environment than either of the Expos' parks. He even has a solid defensive reputation.

While New York didn't insist upon negotiating a contract with Vazquez before acquiring him, I can't imagine them signing him to less than a two-year deal with an option. Provided he remains healthy, he should rank among the top pitchers in the game over that time, and with improved run support and the high profile of the New York market, I suspect he'll make a run for the CY sometime soon. Despite the injury risk, I like this addition to the team better than any since Mike Mussina.

However, Montreal required a high price for Vazquez, bringing the wisdom of the Yankees end of the trade into question. Nick Johnson's excellent plate discipline and solid hitting ability make the 25-year-old one of the most productive players in the majors. Whatever his power output, his on-base skills should keep him in the top of the lineup indefinitely.

Johnson's injury problems have prevented observers from obtaining a clear view of his power potential. His G-F doesn't set him apart as a power hitter, but the fact that most of his injuries have troubled his hands and wrists, indicates that he may display more power if and when he's ever able to remain healthy. Depending on how he develops, I wouldn't be shocked to see yearly home run totals from Johnson anywhere between the low twenties and high forties.

Given his age, we can only expect improvement over the next few years. While Johnson is arbitration-eligible this season, his injury should keep his price down for 2004. In a stable organization, I would expect Johnson to sign a multi-year deal next off-season, but given the limbo created by the Expos' unusual ownership situation, I don't know that he'll pause that long in Montreal. Minaya doesn't value Johnson's skills as highly as more perceptive general managers, so provided there's no progress in obtaining new ownership for the Expos, I expect serious trade discussions to begin regarding Johnson as soon as the All-Star break and I suspect he'll be dealt for payroll reasons before the end of next December.