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November
26th
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
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No Choi in Wrigleyville

by Jessica and Tim Polko

Despite the unceremonious dismissal of franchise icon Mark Grace and the Cubs' refusal to court Jim Thome, we still expected this day to arrive, particularly after the signing of veteran-happy Dusty Baker and the mid-season accident that effectively ended a promising Cubs' career. Of course, the shock of losing a potential franchise cornerstone still won't dissipate any time soon.

On Tuesday, Cubs' GM Jim Hendry got an early jump on the Wednesday release of Michael Crichton's Timeline by dragging the Cubs into the past. He dealt future All-Star first baseman Hee Seop Choi and a minor league player-to-be-named to the Florida Marlins, the team that defeated Chicago in an epic NLCS that ended just forty days ago. In return, first baseman Derrek Lee joins the Cubs, a franchise he likely won't leave for years after this deal. The strangest of the ironies present here is that Derrek's father Leon originally scouted and signed Hee Seop for Chicago.

Acquiring Lee fulfills Hendry's immediate goal of pushing the Cubs into the 2004 World Series. Lee finished this season as one of the major's top half dozen first basemen, and we have every reason to expect he'll remain among the game's elite at his position for the next decade. Pro Player Stadium suppresses homers among right-handed hitters by 25%, so moving to Chicago should increase Lee's homer production at home by over 42% thanks to Wrigley's winds. In 2004, Lee should outperform Choi by a significant amount. He can contain Aramis Ramirez's occasionally erratic throws and even owns very good speed, a commodity largely absent from the Cubs' lineup.

However, Choi appears on the cusp of excellence. Choi's .379 OBP and .465 SLG prior to his June concussion are eerily similar to Lee's season-long marks of a .379 OBP and .508 SLG. Although Choi will turn 25 during Spring Training, Lee just turned 28, indicating that Lee's skills soon will plateau even as Choi's abilities continue to develop. Of course, as Lee earned $4.25M in 2003, he should receive no less than $18M over the next three years and quite possibly more than $24M. Choi will earn a total between $2-3M through 2006.

Most importantly, dealing Choi is another symptom of Hendry's unwillingness to actually employ the players from the farm system he nurtured when he was both Chicago's farm director and scouting director. Cubs' fans are starved to see a homegrown position player in the lineup. Mark Grace was the last All-Star produced by the system, and while Patterson looked great in 2003, every Chicago writer seems to forget when criticizing Choi that Patterson struggled throughout 2002 before breaking out this season. Considering Choi performed quite well during April and May, we have no reason to suspect he won't immediately provide the Marlins with another above-average first baseman.

Swapping Choi for Lee also gives the Cubs yet another right-handed power hitter with lofty strikeout totals, and his salary might make Hendry more hesitant to give long-term deals to Ramirez, Kerry Wood, and Patterson. With Mark Prior also able to opt out of his contract in favor of arbitration no later than 2005, Chicago absolutely did not need another right-handed corner player making over $6 million.

The Marlins, who dumped former #1 overall pick Adrian Gonzalez when they overpaid to acquire Ugueth Urbina, perfectly replaced their former elite first base prospect. Choi will play the next two seasons for virtually nothing, and not only should he contribute nearly as much as Lee, he gives Florida the left-handed bat missing from their 2003 lineup. The PTBNL likely will be one of the many Cubs' pitching prospects crowded out of a deep system. While we hope that Chicago finally will dump Beanball Ben Christensen, AAAA right-hander Mike Wuertz is a likelier candidate, as long as no team spends a Rule 5 pick on him. Someone like Christensen may have more upside, but Wuertz is more useful now as the Marlins lack major league-ready pitchers in their upper minors.

If this move allows Florida to re-sign Ivan Rodriguez and/or Luis Castillo, thereby keeping two players both the Marlins and Cubs needed a lot more than Lee, the deal will look even better for Florida in a few weeks. Since Choi should perform as well as Lee beginning in 2005, Florida wins this trade handily unless Lee helps Chicago to a 2004 World Championship.

The Cubs and Marlins exchanged quality players, but the Orioles are the biggest losers here. Baltimore dealt for Lee earlier in the week, but they wouldn't complete the deal without signing him to an extension. After he refused the deal for personal reasons, Baltimore foolishly decided not to acquire Lee while waiting to sell him on the franchise over the next year. Now the Orioles still need a couple of cornerstone players when Lee reportedly would have cost them a lot less than dealing for Richie Sexson or signing elite free agents.


Thirteen years ago this week, Chicago signed former Cy Young runner-up Danny Jackson as a free agent, a move that resulted in headache-inducing shouts of joy among Cubs' fans desperate for any impact move. In retrospect, Jackson's performance wasn't that surprising given his declining dominance and developing health problems. Fortunately, Lee's numbers at least suggest he won't perform much worse than Choi over the next few years. Also, given his seven solid skills, Lee likely was the best veteran first baseman available. He appears more cost-efficient than any veteran first baseman in the majors, so if Hendry and Dusty Baker felt the need to make a move, acquiring Lee shouldn't make any Cubs' fan defect to the increasingly intriguing organization in Milwaukee. Losing an emerging homegrown star to a new rival will hurt for a long time, yet Chicagoans everywhere, about to celebrate a holiday with roots in the 17th century, still will continue to devote their passion to a baseball club hopelessly stuck in the 20th.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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