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April
11th
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
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Unhappy Unhappy, Joey Joey

by Jessica Polko

A number of events came together to bring Shane Reynolds to the Braves. Reynolds appeared set to sign with the Mets, but at the last minute, Major League Baseball overturned his deal with New York, because minor league contracts cannot include option years. Meanwhile, the Braves discovered that the injury that caused Paul Byrd to begin the season on the disabled list will keep him out much longer than originally anticipated.

Atlanta had hoped Byrd would be able to come of the DL and start yesterday's game in Philadelphia, but while his elbow reportedly was improving, he still felt soreness and was not pitching effectively in his rehab starts. Tests revealed a bone spur on his right elbow. He is scheduled to undergo surgery to remove the bone spur today. While some optimistic estimates forecast his return in as little as two months, I believe he'll likely be out at least until late July, and he may not rejoin the team until August.

The Braves signed Reynolds to a one-year, $300,000 contract with a $3M mutual option for 2004, which the Braves can buyout for $100,000. I believe Byrd was moved to the 60-day disabled list, opening up a place on the 40-man for Reynolds. Joey Dawley will likely be demoted today in order to make room for Reynolds on the 25-man roster.

Dawley has compiled a 6:2 K:BB with 12 H and 2 HR allowed in 5 IP for a 19.80 ERA over three appearances so far this season. The team might tolerate such a start from an established veteran or promising young prospect, but as a 31-year-old rookie, Dawley needed to perform immediately to hold his spot in the pen. If he duplicates his 2002 AAA performance upon his return to the minors, he may be recalled to fill an opening later in the season.

I believe the Astros made a big mistake when they released Reynolds just days before the start of the regular season. While he suffered a serious injury last season, he was pitching solidly before that problem and reportedly looks good this year. If they were concerned about the potential cost of his contract with incentives, they could have traded him after a few months, which also would have opened up a place for one of their young starters.

With a friendlier home environment from which to work and nominally the best pitching coach in the majors, Reynolds could even improve upon his pre-injury form, though I don't expect his strikeout rate to rise much above 6 K/9. The 35-year-old is a quality addition to an Atlanta staff desperately in need of help. I'll be somewhat surprised if he doesn't outperform Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz, and eventually Paul Byrd.

Hampton went down with a strained right calf less than a week before the start of the regular season, causing him to start the year on the disabled list. The Braves hoped he'd be able to rejoin the team after a minimal stay on the DL, but he evidently suffered a setback when stepping from the shower last week. Nevertheless, Atlanta still hopes he'll return within a week. Dawley made the team, because of the opening created by Hampton's injury.

Jason Marquis is already headed to the bullpen, as Reynolds' arrival and the schedule allow the Braves to skip him in the rotation. Once Hampton returns, Atlanta will need to pick a reliever to demote. Trey Hodges seems most likely to head to AAA, as he's only managed a 5:5 K:BB with 6 H allowed over 7.2 IP. While with the exception of a September call-up Hodges spent all of last season at AAA, he skipped over AA completely. Consequently, the Braves aren't likely to hesitate to have him spend some additional time working as a starter at AAA. Marquis has performed markedly worse than Hodges this season and therefore is also a candidate for demotion. However, the Braves have grown accustomed to Marquis and probably feel more comfortable carrying him as a swingman.

While Atlanta now possesses some depth among their long relievers and starters, the Braves took action last week to add some middle relief injury insurance, signing Travis Phelps to a minor league deal. Although they could have at least attempted retain Phelps while kicking him off the 40-man by sending him through waivers, Tampa Bay chose to simply release him instead, which I believe was a shameful waste of resources.

The Devil Rays drafted Phelps out of Crowder Missouri Junior College with their 89th round pick of the 1996 draft, which makes him the lowest draft pick ever to make the majors. As the draft is now limited to 50 rounds and baseball is studying making it shorter, Phelps is likely to hold that distinction for quite some time.

However, although he has not performed spectacularly in his limited major league time, he wasn't merely on the roster as a gimmick. Throughout his career, the 25-year-old's strikeout rate has hovered around a K/IP. If his walk rate ever drops below 3 BB/9, he should have a steady job in the majors. Currently, his ability to maintain a low hit rate and limit his total baserunners allowed permits him to pitch well enough to be useful as a temporary bullpen option.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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