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April
2nd
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
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Edwards and Upwards

by Jessica Polko

Last week after we started the team previews, several trades were completed. In the most significant deal, San Francisco sent RHP Livan Hernandez, C-L Edwards Guzman, and $3.2M to Montreal for RHP Jim Brower and a player to be named later.

For the last few years, if you wanted to say something nice about Livan you called him an innings eater and referenced his post-season record. His streak of post-season appearances without a loss ended in 2002, and as his new manager Frank Robinson recently pointed out innings eater isn't a particularly flattering moniker.

If they use him as a starter, the Expos can't expect him to post a strikeout rate better than 6 K/9 and probably shouldn't expect more than 5.5 K/9. While both his hit and walk rates are near target levels, neither is anything special. He's been fairly successful at keeping the ball on the ground and in the park, but the change in home fields will test his abilities in that department.

The money included covers Livan's 2003 salary with the exception of $300,000, which is the minimum wage of a major league player. He has a $6M option for the 2004 season that automatically kicks in if he pitches 217 innings this year, however I don't believe Montreal will allow him to reach that mark. Livan will spend the first week of the season in the pen, since the Expos aren't immediately in need of a fifth starter. Afterwards, he will join the rotation until his half brother Orlando Hernandez is healthy. Normally, uniting relatives is viewed as a positive clubhouse move. However, Livan and Orlando reportedly don't have the best relationship.

Unfortunately, Orlando's shoulder injury will keep him out longer than originally predicted. While the Expos don't believe his problem is serious, Hernandez will likely spend four to six weeks on the disabled list. I'm quite disappointed by this injury as I believed Orlando would have a healthy season and improve upon last year's performance. Montreal may move Livan back to the bullpen when Orlando returns.

San Francisco drafted Edwards Guzman out of Interamerican University with their 50th round draft pick in 1995. They moved him quickly through the system, so he's split the last four seasons between AAA and the majors. He doesn't have outstanding power or plate discipline, but the 26-year-old likely would be an adequate back-up if needed.

Last year was Jim Brower's first full season in the majors as well as his first year pitching solely in relief. The 30-year-old came up through the Rangers and Indians' systems and spent some time with Cincinnati before the Expos acquired him for Bruce Chen last June. The move to relief didn't significantly improve his strikeout rate, but he was able to exercise better control over the ball. He should provide the Giants with a solid middle inning pitcher, but he wasn't a high price for Montreal to pay for Hernandez.

While paying a player to pitch for another team is never an ideal situation, San Francisco needed to clear Livan from their rotation in order to make room for Kurt Ainsworth to start. Ainsworth likely was ready to pitch in the majors last year, but his rookie season was delayed a year by a full Giants' rotation. They will also soon need to make room for Jesse Foppert and eventually Jerome Williams.

Dealing Livan improves their rotation by clearing room for Ainsworth and Brower will be useful in the pen. The player to be named later could be insignificant and this would still be a good trade for the Giants. On the other hand, if the PTBNL is much more than insignificant, the Expos probably shouldn't have bothered with the deal, as they have other pitchers capable of covering for the injured Orlando.

San Francisco has joined the ranks of teams whose closers did not recover from off-season surgery in time for the start of the regular season. Robb Nen was set to begin the season on the Giants' active roster, though likely not pitching on consecutive days. Nevertheless, on Monday, San Francisco placed him on the disabled list with a strained right shoulder. This injury is not an aggravation of the problem that required him to undergo surgery this off-season, but the Giants do believe it is a result of him rushing his recovery from that surgery. He's expected to miss two to three weeks, and I expect that after this setback they will be more cautious so he could be out longer.

However, unlike the other clubs who have lost their primary closer, the Giants probably won't spend time auditioning replacements. Tim Worrell and Felix Rodriguez will cover save situations in Nen's absence.

Both pitchers are accustomed to pitching numerous innings, so they should be able to cover most of the setup and closing work. Rodriguez slipped a bit last season, but that apparently was injury related, so he should rebound this year. The 30-year-old has been viewed as a strong closer candidate for years and should be up to the job. Worrell doesn't have Rodriguez's strikeouts, but he's consistently effective. Unfortunately, although Brower helps none of their middle relief is shallow unless they move one of their young starters and/or Ryan Jensen into the bullpen.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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