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April 1st 2003 |
Out of the Frying Pan |
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by Jessica Polko
American League MVP Solid power numbers combined with the RBI and Runs of a player at the heart of the best offense in the league likely will allow Ramirez to easily carry the MVP voting while his team advances to the playoffs. I don't believe ARod's spring brush with injury will haunt him during the season, so he should once again produce numbers to rival the rest of the league and more than earn second in the voting. We feel that Matsui will successfully transfer the power skills he's displayed in Japan to MLB, and his stature and prominence will garner him numerous votes. Other players likely to be in the top 10 in votes include: Magglio Ordonez, Ichiro Suzuki, Nomar Garciaparra, Eric Chavez, Torii Hunter, and Carlos Delgado.
American League Cy Young Pedro appears healthy and set to sign a lucrative contract extension to start the season, preparing him to return to his former Cy Young levels. Mulder should have the best skills on the Oakland staff this year and we believe he'll remain healthy. Halladay should put up another strong season and avoid a fade at the end of year, while his team wins more games. As we expect Tim Hudson to reach 20 wins, he'll likely pick up a few votes. Additionally, teammate Keith Foulke's performance out of the bullpen may garner some support.
American League Rookie of the Year Matsui is a veteran player with a well-established background. He should immediately rank as one of the better players in the league, allowing him to win this award. Teixeira may give Matsui more competition than previous Japanese ROYs. However, I'm uncertain of his playing time and without any AAA experience, I don't believe he'll explode onto the scene with sufficient force to topple Matsui, though he will no doubt perform impressively. MacDougal appears poised for success as the Kansas City closer, and as a result his season save total will probably garner him numerous votes. Cleveland rookies Brandon Phillips and Travis Hafner should also make a strong push to join this grouping.
American League Manager of the Year I don't believe Grady Little will significantly improve as a manager, and if anything prevents the Red Sox from winning the division, it will probably be his management. He was one of the worst managers in baseball last year. However, I believe that whoever leads the Red Sox to the division title will win the AL MOY. Ken Macha should successfully guide Oakland to the AL West championship in his rookie year as a manager. Meanwhile, Jerry Manuel will likely chaperon the White Sox to the AL central title, and be given credit for holding together a volatile clubhouse, though I'm not entirely certain he'll be successful in that quest. Joe Torre won't be far behind these three and could easily grab a spot on this list as a perennial contender for this award, particularly if he does a good job of compensating for the loss of Derek Jeter.
American League Comeback Player of the Year This list is easy to put together some years, but unless I'm overlooking someone, there really wasn't a star who missed a lot of time last year, who we expect to be back strong in 2003. However, Matt Anderson should return to his former status as a solid closer after missing the majority of last year. I'm a bit concerned that Juan Gonzalez may suffer a relapse with his hand problems, but if not he's a strong candidate. Meanwhile, teammate Chan Ho Park can't escape his new ballpark, but he should have a better season without the injury problems of 2002.
American League Executive of the Year The youngest GM in history should easily carry away the AL Executive of the Year title for his role in compiling the 2003 World Championship team. I'm not a big fan of Kenny Williams, but if Bartolo Colon remains healthy he'll receive recognition as the GM of a division winner. Billy Beane is a perennial contender for this award and will likely aid his case by fleecing Kansas City in yet another trade for one of their pending free agents.
National League MVP The voters finally appear prepared to acknowledge Barry Bonds' historic performance levels, and the Giants should remain successful giving them no excuses not to vote for him. Albert Pujols may be one of the few Cardinal position players fully healthy this year. He's been on his way to an MVP since his ROY win and should make a strong push this year. The friendly dimensions of the Expos Puerto Rican home field should boost Vlad's power numbers adding to his already typically impressive production. Other players likely to be in the top 10 in votes include: Pat Burrell, Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones, Brian Giles, Jeff Kent, Sammy Sosa, and Shawn Green.
National League Cy Young While most pitchers begin to decline well before 39, Johnson shows no signs of letting up anytime soon, and a repeat performance should equal another win. I don't think Schilling will give Johnson quite as much competition this year, but he appears in the midst of an impressive run. Meanwhile, Jason Schmidt should rack up numerous wins and crack 200 strikeouts this year. I expect the Houston pair of Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller to compete for votes with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior of the Cubs.
National League Rookie of the Year I believe Larson will probably hit for more power than Overbay and edge him out for the victory. However, if Larson spends time on the DL, I think Overbay can pull ahead of him, as Overbay is a more prominent prospect and should produce at a similar level. As a part of the Phillies offense, Byrd should be in position to receive more votes than the remaining candidates. I listed Kurt Ainsworth as someone who shouldn't be ignored in this category last year, so now that he's actually expected to spend the year in the rotation, he is a serious candidate for votes. If Hee Seop Choi weren't sharing the Chicago first base job with Eric Karros, he would definitely crack the top three in votes.
National League Manager of the Year Age and wisdom are frequently mistaken for one and the same, so as long as the Giants make the playoff Alou likely will take this title, as there isn't much competition in the National League. While demoting Joe Thurston isn't a strong start, Tracy proved last year that he is one of the better managers in the league. Dusty Baker's devotion to veterans will hold the Cubs back somewhat, but they are set for a big rebound after last year and he will receive a lot of credit for their improvement. Although his lack of confidence in Bobby Hill is troubling, we were impressed that he had the sense to place Hee Seop Choi, a big player in the Cubs future, in the Opening Day lineup despite the fact they Chicago was facing a left-handed pitcher. Mark Teixeira's presence on the bench during Texas' first game was a black mark against Buck Showalter.
National League Comeback Player of the Year Ramirez ruined his season when he injured himself charging the mound early last year. Before that injury, we felt he was set to have a break out season and although it was delayed a year we should still see it. Kevin Brown appears healthy this year, and although I don't expect a full rebound to his pre-injury status, we should see significant improvement. Now that he's almost two-years removed from Tommy John surgery, Benson appears likely to resume his position as the Pirates' ace.
National League Executive of the Year Although he wasn't particularly cost conscious in his construction of this Phillies' team and some of his moves might haunt him in the future, Ed Wade with the help of John Schuerholz has put Philadelphia in position to take the division title from Atlanta. When the Giants lost the Series, I was concerned that Bonds' may have missed his chance at a ring. However, he has assembled a team that looks at least as strong as the 2002 club. I'm not sure what he has up his sleeve this year and his job will be harder with the Cardinals tightening their purse strings, but Walt Jocketty has pulled rabbits out of his hat to keep St. Louis at the top of the division the last few years.
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