Greg Maddux settled on a one-year, $14.75M deal with the Braves on Monday. I was a bit surprised that the two sides reached a compromise, as I thought there was a good chance they'd head to arbitration. However, they ultimately agreed on the mid-point between Atlanta's $13.5M offer and Maddux's $16M request.

Even if Maddux had gone to arbitration and lost, he still would have received the largest one-year contract in baseball history, as the previous high was David Cone's $12M 2000 contract. This deal represents a $1.65M raise over Maddux's 2002 salary of $13.1M.

Many observers expect that the Braves will continue to cut payroll for the 2004 season and will therefore not retain Maddux after 2003, but I think that they're still a long way from making that decision. Maddux's 2003 performance will likely have a substantial affect on his earning power next off-season. The fact that he spent time on the disabled list for the first time in his career last season and the injury problems that nagged him throughout last season dampened the market this year. However while his skills suffered due to his health problems, he hardly pitched poorly. His injury problems did not appear to be of a chronic nature, and with an entire off-season of rest, I expect the 36-year-old to remain healthy for the whole of 2003. Unfortunately, I don't believe he'll receive much improved run support, so I don't think he'll win even 19 games.

Javier Vazquez lost his arbitration case and will receive a $6M salary in 2003 rather than the $7.15M he was seeking. Vazquez's strikeout rate dropped last year, but that appears to have been the result of a minor elbow strain he suffered in Spring Training, which lingered into April. He otherwise pitched very similarly to his 2001 performance with less defense and run support. The 26-year-old has a fairly clean injury history and should continue to improve in 2003. Montreal has also shown they're comfortable with him as the solo ace of the staff, having traded away Bartolo Colon. Consequently, he probably should have won his arbitration case, though I think his request was a little high. However, he posted a losing record of 10-13 after a 16-11 season in 2001, which likely swayed the vote in favor of the Expos.

I think Montreal really should have tried very hard to sign Vazquez to a multi-year deal, but given their ownership situation, I don't think they're overly interested in multi-season contracts nor are players particularly comfortable committing to a franchise with such an unknown future. Vazquez will not be a free agent until after the 2004 season, so they still have one more year to work something out. However, I believe he'll probably be considerably more expensive after this coming year, as while I don't think he'll be able to improve his record substantially, his strikeout rate should rebound and he'll have yet another season of experience. Locking him into a four-year deal this off-season, probably would have been a selling point to potential franchise purchasers rather than a negative.

Freddy Garcia won his arbitration and will make $6.875M in 2003 rather than the $5.9M the Mariners were offering. Garcia had an interesting season. He had an excellent first half with a 7.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9, and his numbers were still good in the second half even if they fell to a 6.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. The 26-year-old's decline in the second half really took place in the month and a half after the All-Star game in which he was left waiting on the mound while Commission Selig attempted to determine how baseball would handle the tie situation. By September, he appeared to have improved and was basically back to his pre-break levels. One report indicated that Seattle believed Garcia was tipping his pitches during that time, however many believe he may have suffered some minor arm trouble as a result of the All-Star game. Whatever the cause for the temporary dip in his skills, he appears to have conquered the problem, so I expect a full season of 7+ K/9 and a BB/9 around 2.

Garcia and Vazquez are interesting to compare, as both are 26 and scheduled to be free agents following the 2004 season. In several ways, Garcia appears to have had a better season than Vazquez last year, but I don't think the Mariners should have worked on a multi-year deal with him. Vazquez seems to have a far more consistent skill history, which makes me trust him more than Garcia, who may occasionally peak higher, but doesn't have the overall upside of Vazquez.

The Mariners fear that losing this arbitration case will cause them to "need" to cut payroll later in the season, though they're willing to look at attendance figures in the first half before making that decision. Seattle's dedication to making a substantial profit every season has prevented them from assembling a World Series winner. If they'd invested a little more in the past, they might have been able to win a World Series, which would have increased revenue well beyond their extra expenditure.

Only one arbitration-case remains outstanding. A.J. Burnett had his hearing on Tuesday and is still waiting for the ruling.