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February 8th 2003 |
Out of the Frying Pan |
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by Jessica Polko J.D. Drew's injury problems continue to multiply. On January 31st, Drew underwent surgery to have a cyst removed from the ball of his left foot. He continues to work on his recovery from October surgery to remove a portion of his patellar tendon, which had died and was unable to regenerate. After Mark McGwire's career ending knee problems, Cardinal fans are more than a little worried when anyone has problems with their knees. The cyst removal is considered minor compared to the knee problem, as his foot should heal completely long before his knee. Drew's knee isn't as bad as McGwire's, and he has the advantage of youth and a lighter body to aid his recovery. Nevertheless, Drew isn't expected to be fully healthy until at least mid-May. St. Louis has yet to decide whether he'll begin the season on the DL or attempt to contribute in a reduced role, as he did last season. However now that he's also undergone this foot procedure, I think they should definitely lean towards allowing him the extra rest. I'd much rather him take the time off and come back stronger than limp through the entire season because he tried to rush his return. St. Louis agreed to a one-year, $3.7M contract with Drew in mid-January. Drew's strikeout rate went up last season, but I suspect that development was a result of adjusting his batting to compensate for his injury. If he returns early, I'd expect a similar and possibly further degenerated performance. However if he ever returns to near normal health, I believe his skills will rebound. Even with his production reduced by injury, the 27-year-old's upside remains sufficiently high that the Cardinals would have been imprudent to non-tender him, making this a fair salary under the circumstances. It's quite unfortunate that these injury problems are marring his prime and preventing St. Louis from safely signing him to a multi-year deal. Meanwhile, the Cardinals also settled with the arbitration-eligible Brett Tomko, who agreed to a one-year, $3.3M contract. While the 29-year-old isn't much better than many pitchers who've received considerably less this off-season, he has potential and he's likely to remain healthy for the entire season. He should be a solid number three for St. Louis in 2003, so I don't object to the salary. The Cardinals signed free agent Dustin Hermanson to a $900,000 one-year contract at the end of January, though only $500,000 is guaranteed if he somehow fails to make the team. Hermanson will compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training, but he's likely to break camp in the bullpen, joining the rotation only after someone else is afflicted by injury or ineffectiveness. St. Louis needed to add starting depth after last year's rotation problems, though they were right to deal Hermanson to Boston before the season. In the bullpen, the 30-year-old should be able to concentrate his skills and pitch more effectively than he's managed as a starter. However if he's needed in the rotation, Hermanson should be able to provide near league average innings. Hermanson will also reportedly have the opportunity to earn an additional $650,000 in incentives. Free agent Orlando Palmeiro also signed a one-year deal with St. Louis. I think this is a fantastic acquisition, as the Cardinals needed to improve their outfield reserves and Palmeiro gives them a strong left-handed bat off the bench. Last season in 263 AB, the 34-year-old hit .300 with a .368 OBP and .354 SLG on 79 H, 12 2B, and 1 3B with a 30:22 BB:K and 7/9 SB%. With Drew's playing time at least limited to start the season, I expect Palmeiro to receive significant playing time in combination with Eli Marreo and Alex Ochoa, who signed a minor league deal with St. Louis. Palmeiro's acquisition may push Kerry Robinson off the team. Ochoa is an excellent right-handed complement to Palmeiro, providing less speed and more power, although his strong plate discipline has yet to translate into a consistently high batting average. Neither player has a significant platoon split. I'm certain he'll break camp with the Cardinals and play an important role in their outfield. In addition to Ochoa, St. Louis has signed numerous other players to minor league contracts, including OF-R Cesar Bolivar, IF-R Caonabo Cosme, CR Corey Erickson, 1B-R Bucky Jacobsen, OF-R Jacques Landry, OF-R Alvin Morrow, OF-R Mike Peeples, and OF-S Nestor Smith. Unfortunately, I don't expect anyone else to impact the major league team. Bolivar spent last season with the Twins' affiliate at AA New Britain in the Eastern League. The 24-year-old needs to improve his contact rate, but offers significant speed and power upside, so he should advance to AAA with the Cardinals. However, I don't expect him in the majors before September at the earliest. Cosme is leaving the Oakland system for the first time since the A's signed him out of the Dominican Republic as a nondrafted free agent in 1995. The 23-year-old has remained in A+ for most of the past five seasons, due to a high strikeout rate. I suspect the Cardinals may go ahead and slot him in AA, but he offers only moderate power and has a poor SB%. The Mets drafted Corey Erickson out of high school with their fourth round pick in the 1995 draft, but Cleveland snatched him away in the minor league portion of the 1999 Rule 5 draft. If St. Louis has a magic formula for reducing strikeouts, they might make something of these guys. However, there's a reason that their careers have stalled out before AAA. The 26-year-old Erickson should return to AA in 2003 to again attempt to develop sufficient plate discipline to make use of his prodigious power upside. Jacobsen split last season between the Brewers and Cardinals' AA affiliates. He has a decent walk rate and a better contact rate than most of these other players, as well as the power upside for which St. Louis was obviously looking. I suspect they'll advance him to AAA, but given his limited position flexibility I don't expect the 27-year-old to break into the majors in 2003. Detroit drafted Landry out of Rice University with their 12th round pick of the 1996 draft, but Oakland grabbed him in the minor league portion of the 1998 Rule 5 draft. He managed to control his strikeouts sufficiently at AA for the first few months of last season to warrant a call-up to AAA where they promptly exploded once more. However, the brief improvement leaves room for the possibility that the 29-year-old might eventually warrant a cup-of-coffee, though I don't expect it to happen with the Cardinals in 2003. Milwaukee drafted Alvin Morrow out of high school with their second round pick of the 1997 draft. However, he reportedly left baseball last season to spend a year pursuing a football career. The 24-year-old had previously only advanced to A+, where he displayed a solid walk rate but only managed a .63 contact rate with waning power. I doubt he'll advance above AA in 2003. The 26-year-old Peeples will likely develop into a AAAA outfielder in the next couple years. However, I think the Cardinals have sufficient major league depth that he likely won't be used by St. Louis in 2003. He offers marginal speed and power but really needs to improve his walk rate. Nestor Smith spent most of last season with a team in the independent Central League, where he managed to marginally improve his plate discipline though it still needs significant work. However, the 25-year-old offers considerable speed and power skills, so he's not a total waste of a AA roster spot.
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