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February
5th
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
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Royman Halladay

by Jessica Polko

Toronto has only one remaining arbitration case after Kelvim Escobar agreed to a one-year, $3.9M contract last week. The Blue Jays signed Escobar as a nondrafted free agent out of Venezuela in 1992, and he made his major league debut on June 29, 1997. He'll be eligible for free agency following the 2003 season, and after multiple trade rumors over the past few years, the 26-year-old is expected to be dealt during the season, allowing Cliff Politte to take over as closer.

Escobar is a dominant pitcher and does a decent job as the Blue Jays' closer, but he suffers from serious control problems, which curtail his effectiveness. I expect him to head into several seasons of setup work after leaving Toronto, before resuming a closing role provided he's able to establish more consistent control.

Roy Halladay signed a $3.875M one-year contract in mid-January, giving the Blue Jays a nicely priced ace. Halladay slowed significantly in the second half of the season, but that decline can likely be attributed to fatigue as he pitched significantly more innings than in any previous season of his career. Toronto should monitor the 25-year-old's workload this season, but I expect him to continue to post excellent control numbers while maintaining a solid 6 K/9. While they probably could have saved money had they pursued a multi-year deal this off-season rather than next, I think the inherent injury risk accompanying such a deal makes it more advantageous for the Blue Jays to wait until he's repeated his 2002 performance in at least one more season, especially since he likely won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2005 season. The Blue Jays signed Cliff Politte to a one-year, $845,000 contract. Politte has always displayed a strong arm, and over the past two seasons, he's also conquered his control problems. Whether Toronto decides to trade Escobar this season will not be dependent upon Politte's readiness to take over the closer role, but rather whether they have enough arms for the bottom of the pen. At 28, Politte is two years older than Escobar, but he's still three seasons away from free agency and while Escobar is still ascending to his peak, the Blue Jays should witness Politte's prime at a substantial discount due to his late blooming.

Chris Woodward signed a one-year, $775,000 contract. While I will continue to disagree with their decision to establish Woodward as their shortstop of the future, this salary is appropriate. The 26-year-old needs to walk more and strikeout less, but he offers considerable power upside and a bit of speed.

Shannon Stewart is the only Blue Jay still scheduled for an arbitration hearing. The two sides were $2M apart with their arbitration requests, as Stewart asked for $7.5M while Toronto is offering $5.5M. Consequently, I don't expect them to reach a settlement. Stewart maintained his skills last season, but as he didn't see a big production boost and spent a little time on the DL, I think the Blue Jays may be able to defeat him at a hearing.

OF-R Mike Colangelo and IF-S Glenn Williams have both signed minor league deals with Toronto. Colangelo possesses strong plate discipline skills, but the 26-year-old has generally failed to complement that talent with either significant power or speed, limiting his ability to find playing time. However, the Blue Jays were short of AAAA outfield depth last season, and as he has a little upside, Colangelo is a good player to help correct that problem in 2003.

Williams first signed with the Blue Jays as a minor league free agent prior to the 2000 season, and he's continued to re-sign with them since that time. Last season at AAA Syracuse, he hit .274 with a .319 OBP and .478 SLG on 93 H, 18 2B, 3 3B, and 15 HR with a 20:80 BB:K and 2/2 SB% in 339 AB. He needs to improve his plate discipline, but the 25-year-old has sufficient power upside and positional flexibility to possess intriguing potential as a reserve infielder.


Meanwhile the Angels have settled with all of their arbitration-eligible players. Anaheim signed Scott Spiezio to a one-year, $4.25M contract in mid-January. Spiezio had a strong season, improving his plate discipline significantly while maintaining his power output. However, now that he's reached 30, the Angels should probably stop trying to run with him even a little, as he has a very poor SB%. He earned his raise, but I agree with their decision not to lock him into a long-term deal, as they have other options in the system and Spiezio doesn't offer the power teams prefer in a starting first baseman.

Adam Kennedy signed a one-year, $2.27M contract, taking advantage of his playoff heroics and ostentatious but unsupported .312 BA. I will be shocked if Kennedy is able to maintain even a .290 BA next season without an improvement in his .04 walk rate. However, the 27-year-old possesses useful speed and limited power skills, so he should be a fine starting second baseman for the Angels for the next few years. He's certainly much better than many of the American League starters at that position.

The Angels signed Jarrod Washburn to a one-year, $3.875M contract. Washburn is another control pitcher, relying on limiting the walks he allows rather than striking out a large number of batters. My main concern regarding his ability to maintain his production lies in the large number of fly balls he allows. Last season he was able to keep his homer rate down, but I don't expect that to persist as long as he continues to allow such a large percentage of balls to go in the air. I think a repeat of his 2001 season in 2003 is much more likely than a replica of 2002.

Scott Schoeneweis signed a one-year, $1.425M contract. He'll reportedly receive a $5,000 bonus for reaching 45 appearances and $1,000 for each game up to 65, which should help compensate for his desire to work as a starter. As expected, once moved to relief Schoeneweis turned into a valuable asset for the Angels last season rather than the liability he represented as a starter. Unfortunately, as a reliever there's no reason to pay him this salary, so the Angels are wasting at least $500,000.

Anaheim has added a number of players through minor league deals, including UT-R Adam Riggs, UT-R Oscar Salazar, and LHP Rich Rodriguez. Riggs normally maintains a solid walk rate, so his strikeout rate frequently determines his success at a level. When he's at his best he possesses considerable power and speed upside, so the 30-year-old could provide the Angels with injury insurance. However, he's normally had difficulty adjusting to the majors. Salazar failed to establish decent plate discipline on the way up the developmental ladder and should be stuck as a rarely used AAAA utility player until he acquires some patience in AAA. Anaheim should hope they don't need to use the 24-year-old in 2003, though he'll possess moderate power upside once he gets the rest of his act together.

Rodriguez missed the first half of last season following shoulder surgery to repair a circulation problem and pitched poorly after his return. Hopefully a few months at AAA will allow the 39-year-old to reestablish himself as a left-handed relief option, but at his age I have doubts.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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