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February 3rd 2003 |
Out of the Frying Pan |
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by Jessica Polko Minnesota signed Jacque Jones to a two-year, $7.1M contract on Sunday. While I'm not particularly in favor to the Twins retaining Jones considering the numerous qualified non-arbitration eligible replacement options they possess, I don't feel this two-year deal hurts them in any way. Jones likely would have earned a similar salary on one-year contracts over the course of the deal, so this really should make him better trade bait, as he'll come with some cost certainty. Unfortunately the .300 BA he posted last season was not supported by his skills, meaning his average should drop back to the .280 range next season. Minnesota also should stop running with him, as he hasn't been capable of maintaining a stolen base success rate high enough to make it worthwhile for the team. However, the 27-year-old's increased power production should be here to stay for the next several seasons, and I would expect his power output to continue to rise a bit for the next couple years. Consequently although he could take his game to the next level with an improvement in his walk rate, he's worth this salary now. Nevertheless, the Twins should look to deal him before the end of this deal, despite the fact that he shouldn't be eligible for free agency until a season after this contract expires. In late January, Minnesota settled on a $1.75M one-year deal with Doug Mientkiewicz, so the Twins will not go to arbitration with anyone this season. Mientkiewicz blames the drop in production he suffered last season on wrist and back problems, which seems logical as while his contact and walk rates both improved he displayed less power and found less frequent hits despite the larger percentage of balls in play. Provided the off-season has allowed him to recover from those injuries, he should bounce back considerably in 2003. However, I think the Twins were kind in choosing to settle at the mid-point between the two arbitration figures, as they almost certainly could have defeated him in arbitration. As expected, the Twins have added a couple of veteran right-handed pitchers to the club through minor league deals. Both Jose Cabrera and Mike Fetters signed with Minnesota in late January and will compete for positions in the Twins' bullpen in Spring Training. The Brewers attempted to use Cabrera as a starter for a portion of last season, which did not work out well. However, the 33-year-old maintained solid skills as a reliever and gives the Twins nice depth in the pen. Fetters is more dominant than Cabrera but suffers from control problems. However, against right-handed batters he was able to display much improved control, so if Minnesota limited his workload against left-handers he would likely pitch well for them. Additionally, he can keep the ball on the ground much better than Cabrera, which is quite important with the Twins home park. Fetters also has the potential to become a fan favorite while Cabrera is just another reliever. Consequently, Minnesota may choose the 38-year-old over Cabrera if both don't make the team out of Spring Training. RHP Mike Duvall also signed a minor league deal with the Twins. Duvall was in the Twins organization last season but suffered from arm troubles and underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of April, so he didn't pitch in 2002. I don't expect him to break camp with the team, as he should need to spend some time in rehab at the beginning of the season. However, prior to his injury he was displaying solid skills at AAA, so the 28-year-old could see time during the season. Minnesota signed UT-R Shane Andrews to a minor league deal in late January. Andrews continues to display solid power skills and a good walk rate in the minors. Last season at AAA Pawtucket he hit .256 with a .346 OBP and .479 SLG on 100 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, and 22 HR with a 52:123 BB:K and 1/2 SB% in 390 AB. If the 31-year-old could increase his contact rate, he'd deserve a regular job in the majors and even now he's a perfectly acceptable injury replacement.
Meanwhile, Mike Venafro signed a one-year, $500,000 in mid-January. I think the Braves were right to add a second veteran lefty, allowing their minor league pitchers additional development time. However, Venafro is a waste of money, as Atlanta should have been able to find a pitcher with significantly better skills, who would have signed a minor league deal. Venafro has major league experience, but his experiences haven't been good. The 29-year-old possesses horrible command and likely wouldn't have pitched half as many innings if he weren't a southpaw. Hopefully, they'll go with Chris Haney as their second lefty even though Venafro does have the major league contract, however I highly doubt it. Atlanta settled with the arbitration-eligible Henry Blanco on a one-year, $1.3M contract, which I view as one of the more foolish awards of the off-season. Blanco is viewed as a top defensive catcher, however he's a backup, blocking the only proceeds from the Kevin Millwood trade, and a poor offensive player. Hopefully, they'll find someone willing to deal for him during the season, but at this price I don't expect many suitors. The Braves have also added a few more players to the organization through minor league deals, including RHP Jaime Arnold, RHP Ryan Glynn, and LHP Bobby M. Jones. Arnold spent last season in the Montreal organization, where he continued to demonstrate poor command as a starter. I think the 28-year-old might be able to pull out a AAAA position if he moved to relief, but he doesn't have strong skills. Texas drafted Ryan Glynn out of the Virginia Military Institute with their fourth round pick in the 1995 draft. They moved him quickly to the majors, ignoring his control problems and he has yet to recover. He's been unable to display acceptable command at AAA as a starter, leaving a move to relief the only action likely to bring the 28-year-old back to the majors. Jones would probably be a better choice for the Braves' second lefty opening than Venafro, but I don't expect him to receive serious consideration. Last season at AAA Norfolk, he compiled a 35:15 K:BB with 42 H and 4 HR allowed in 40.1 IP for a 4.02 ERA in 13 appearances, including 6 starts, making him a solid option for any mid-season openings.
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