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January
26th
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
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Ward to the Wise

by Jessica Polko

Following the signing of Jeff Kent, Houston was even more eager to deal an outfielder than in previous months. On Saturday, the Astros discarded OF-L Daryle Ward, sending him to Los Angeles for RHP Ruddy Lugo.

Although I expected Houston to trade Ward in a deal like this one, I'm still disappointed. In exchange for a left-handed power-hitting outfielder, they acquired a AA reliever, whose defining feature appears to be that he's the younger brother of Astros' infielder Julio Lugo.

Milwaukee drafted Ruddy Lugo out of high school in the third round of the 1999 draft and traded him to LA with Marquis Grissom for Devon White in 2001. Lugo worked as a starter in Rookie ball, but he wasn't able to maintain adequate control in that capacity. He moved full time to relief in 2001, but the Dodgers decided to try him as a starter for a few more games last year. The 22-year-old handled himself fairly well at A+ but faltered upon reaching AA. Given the starting depth in the Houston organization, I suspect they'll develop him as a reliever, in which case he could move fairly quickly through the minors and be ready to contribute to the Astros' pen by mid-season 2004. I don't view him as a future closer, though he could develop into a decent setup man rather than merely bullpen filler.

I think lucky is a much better word than wise with which to describe Dan Evans, but that didn't flow as well as a title. Reportedly he was in the market for a right-handed hitter, so he missed his mark a bit. However, I think he made the right choice in jumping when this deal became available. If Ward is able to move one step closer to his potential, he should be able to replace Brian Jordan. Jordan has a history of injury problems and if he can remain healthy and productive, the Dodgers would be well advised to try to trade him as this is the final year of his contract. My only problem with this from LA's side is that it likely relegates Luke Allen to at least another partial and probably another full year at AAA. Allen appears ready for a starting job in the majors, so I'm irritated he'll likely be blocked from even a chance to break onto the team as a reserve.


As I've recently discussed both Houston and LA, I want to conclude today's article with a look at some of the activities of Ward's original organization. Detroit hasn't been very active on the major league front. Their only recent move is the re-signing of Julio Santana to a one-year deal after non-tendering him in December. Santana's season ended when the Tigers discovered a small ligament tear in his right elbow. He did not undergo surgery to repair the damage, and although he was sufficiently healthy to pitch winter ball, the injury is likely something that will eventually lead to Tommy John surgery in the next couple of years.

The 29-year-old's control has been his primary problem in the past and that didn't really improve last season. He was merely able to limit his total baserunners by reducing the number of hits he allowed. Pitching in Detroit also helped him cut back on his homers, though they remained more frequent than desirable and his HR/9 would likely balloon in a different home park. Additionally, his strikeout rate decreased, likely as a result of his elbow problem. Consequently while he managed to post the best major league ERA of his career, his skills did not improve and we cannot anticipate a similar performance from him in 2003, so I hope the Tigers didn't give him a large contract.

Detroit has made numerous additions to the club through minor league signings. The pitchers that have signed minor league deals with the Tigers include: RHP Carlos Alvarado, LHP Steve Avery, RHP Fernando De La Cruz, RHP Seth Greisinger, RHP Tim McClaskey, RHP Chris Mears, LHP Rafael Roque, RHP Brian Schmack, and LHP Mike Spiegel.

Carlos Alvarado signed with the Pirates as a nondrafted free agent out of Puerto Rico in 1995. He struggled as a starter, but when he moved to relief at AA he began to excel. When he gained free agency after the 2001 season, he signed with the Brewers, who inexplicably sent him down to A+. In a full time relief role, he again demonstrated his promise. I think the 24-year-old could progress quickly if someone takes notice of him, though I expect he'll at least start the season in AA. However, the Tigers have not been shy about jumping players, so he even could reach the majors before September if he dominates and Detroit has difficulty with their young pen.

Following two-years of retirement, Steve Avery has decided to try to make a comeback. He's been throwing for over a month and reportedly doesn't look much rustier than the typical pitcher coming off the off-season. He'll compete in Spring Training for a spot in the Tigers rotation and has a good chance to make the team if he performs well. While they have numerous rotation candidates, Detroit is short on pitchers prepared and qualified to start in the majors. The skill break down that led to Avery's departure from baseball was allegedly the result of mechanics thrown off by injury. As he's now had time to rest his body, he may be able to re-establish his original mechanics and return to his peak form. Even then he wouldn't be an ace, but he could potentially provide the Tigers with much needed league average innings. If the 32-year-old fails to make the team in the spring, he'll be a candidate for promotion during the season.

Fernando De La Cruz has never pitched above AA in an MLB system. He attempted to resurrect his career with some time in Japan, but he was no more able to exercise control there than he has been on this side of the Pacific. A move from starting to relief a half-dozen seasons ago hasn't helped either, so I see absolutely no upside here and don't even expect him to pitch in AAA for Detroit. De La Cruz turned 32 yesterday and should seriously consider retirement before he reaches 33.

Detroit drafted Seth Greisinger out of the University of Virginia with the 6th overall pick of the first round of the 1996 draft. He made a big splash in AA in 1997 and after a half season of AAA he was in the majors in 1998. Unfortunately, he experienced his first arm troubles following that season and underwent Tommy John surgery in June of 1999. His recovery did not progress well, leading him to miss all of 2000 and 2001. Once he was able to pitch last season the Tigers made the mistake of quickly advancing him through AA and AAA to the majors. His skill ratios before his injury indicated he needed more time in AAA, so rushing the 27-year-old after his extensive health problems seems extremely dim-witted. I'd start him back in AA to begin the 2003 season and advance him only after he'd dominated his current level. I see future potential but only if his development is handled correctly and that's a risky proposition in Detroit. The Tigers could cycle through pitchers faster than San Diego in 2002 if they don't add a veteran and their rotation picks struggle as expected. Greisinger will likely be called up before he's ready at least once in 2003 in which case we can anticipate a repeat of his 2002 performance.

Oakland tried Tim McClaskey as a starter at A+ for most of last season, and while he demonstrated excellent control, the 27-year-old should probably remain in relief due to his weak dominance. He's demonstrated that he can dominate in AA, so the Tigers should send him in AAA to start 2003 and could have a decent bullpen arm ready by mid-season.

Seattle drafted Chris Mears out of high school in the fifth round of the 1996 draft. Last season at AA San Antonio in the Texas League, Mears compiled a 103:38 K:BB with 138 H and 16 HR in 143.1 IP for a 3.14 ERA over 30 appearances, including 20 starts. The 25-year-old could continue to attempt to start, but he'd likely have a much straighter path to the majors if he moved to relief. While he could see time in the majors in 2003, I don't believe he'll be an impact player.

Rafael Roque spent 2002 starting in Mexico. As a starter, he's a AAAA player and really doesn't have the control to be in a rotation. If he moved to relief, I'm sure the 31-year-old could find steady work in a bullpen. Their left-handed relief may be the most solid part of the Tigers' pitching staff, so I don't see an immediate opening. As they have a greater need for rotation help, I expect Detroit to have him starting at AAA and he could receive a spot start before the season ends, but I don't believe he'll be particularly effective in that role.

Following college, Brian Schmack spent a season playing independent ball before the White Sox signed him in 1996 and then traded him to Texas with Aaron Myette for Royce Clayton after the 2000 season. I don't expect the 29-year-old to break into the bullpen in Spring Training, but he's displayed solid skills as a reliever in AAA and could probably contribute positively if needed during the season.

Mike Spiegel has not been able to display acceptable control as a starter and therefore hasn't advanced above AA for any significant length of time. Given the 30-year-old's high strikeout rate, I suspect he could develop into a major league left-handed reliever without much work. However, I don't anticipate him to finding work in such a capacity with the Tigers in 2003.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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