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January
17th
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
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GuThrie's A Crowd

by Jessica Polko

Many teams have agreed on contracts with arbitration-eligible players this week, as they wanted to avoid today's exchange of arbitration numbers, as players often times are upset by that process. The Cubs signed Kerry Wood to a one-year, $6.19M contract on Wednesday. Wood will be a free agent after the 2004 season, so Chicago should sign him to a multi-year deal, as he'll likely decide to test free agency if he isn't signed before next off-season.

The Cubs have said that they'll continue working on a longer contract this off-season, but in the meantime they now have this one-year deal in place. It is not uncommon for a team to sign a player to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration and then agree to a multi-year contract a little later. A three-year deal with an option year seems the most sensible for Chicago and Wood, since longer deals have become less popular due to the likelihood of an injury occurring during the course of the contract. If he repeats last season or improves at all, Wood should be able to point to Kevin Millwood and earn $10M in his last year of arbitration. Consequently, I'd estimate the Cubs need to put at least $27M/3 years on the table, including a $1M buyout on an $11M option for 2006, while also adding in a few million in incentives that are extremely easy to reach as long as he's healthy.

They also agreed to a one-year, $600,000 contract with arbitration-eligible reliever Kyle Farnsworth. Injury and personal problems caused Farnsworth to pitch much less effectively last season than he had in 2001. However, he still retained some of his skills and he should be able to rebound this year. I think the Cubs should definitely consider trading him, as his relationship with city deteriorated last year and their bullpen has become over-crowded. Unfortunately, I don't believe they'd currently receive value for him on the trade market, and I don't think the Cubs will want to trade him if he starts the season strong.

GM Jim Hendry has worked hard to complicate his bullpen this off-season. In early January, Chicago signed Dave Veres to a one-year, $2M contract. While Veres is still a decent setup man at 36 and should earn his money, I think this signing just shows laziness on the part of the Cubs.

Jeff Verplancke, who they picked up when they dealt Bill Mueller to San Francisco, now likely won't have a chance at a major league job unless someone is injured, and he appears capable of pitching at least as well as Veres. They had the money and felt the bullpen under-performed last season, so they went out and spent when similar or better results could have been achieved inexpensively, allowing them more payroll flexibility for other things. They've pushed Juan Cruz out of the rotation and now may take his bullpen job away, though they could also pull the rug out from under Joe Borowski, as they seem to be mindnumbingly skeptical about his ability to repeat 2002's breakout performance.

Earlier this week, they signed Mark Guthrie to a one-year, $1.9M contract that includes a $300,000 buyout on a $2.2M option for 2004. I object less to this move, as it helps prevent the club from making the bigger mistake of rushing their young lefty pitching. They now won't have to worry about saving Mike Remlinger for lefty-specific duties. Guthrie spent the end of 1999 and first portion of 2000 with the Cubs, who acquired him from the Red Sox with Cole Liniak and then dealt him to Tampa Bay for Dave Martinez less than a year later.

Interestingly, Beck is also back with the team, having signed a non-guaranteed one-year, $750,000 contract. He can reportedly earn an additional $1.2M in bonuses, and the Cubs have agreed to release him if he fails to make the team out of Spring Training, allowing him to seek major league employment elsewhere. Beck is returning from Tommy John surgery and could have a strong season. However, the Cubs have hardly agreed to a steal of a deal, as he likely wouldn't make much more even if he hadn't been injured for a full season. Additionally, they've made their Spring Training decision much more difficult as they know they'll lose him if he doesn't break camp. At least they didn't make a similar pact with Alan Benes, so he probably won't push the younger pitchers out of the majors. Due to the offensive decisions they've made, I don't even see them having the option of taking 12 pitchers.

In early January, the club signed Ramon Martinez to a one-year, $800,000 contract. The former Giant provides the Cubs with a fairly competent reserve infielder to cover any at-bats not absorbed by Mark Bellhorn, Mark Gruzielanek, Eric Karros, Bobby Hill, Hee Seop Choi, and Alex Gonzalez. I don't think the Cubs can offer the 30-year-old as many plate appearances as he found with the Giants, but Manager Dusty Baker should be pleased to have the familiar face on his bench.

Martinez is not the only Giant to latch onto the Cubs. Tom Goodwin signed a one-year split contract. If the 34-year-old makes the team, he will earn 635,000 split, but if he's in the minors his salary will be cut to $135,000. Goodwin can ask to be released if he doesn't make the team out of Spring Training. He still has decent plate discipline and speed, so he would be a solid fifth outfielder. However, Goodwin will compete for a single roster spot with Lenny Harris, who signed a minor league deal. Lenny Harris is four-years older and offers a little power but less speed than Goodwin. If he wins the position, it will be on the strength of his record as the most prolific pinch-hitter in history. Both are left-handed hitters, so that will not affect the decision.

I thought when Midre Cummings signed a minor league deal with the club, he might have a chance at making the roster as the fifth outfielder. However, the switch-hitters' offense doesn't quite match-up to either of the others, and he doesn't have their reputation.

The Cubs have signed a few other players to minor league contracts, including CR-R Phil Hiatt, 1B-L Chris Pritchett, LHP Heath Murray, and RHP Aaron Small. Hiatt has established himself as a AAAA player, capable of playing the corner infield and outfield positions. The 33-year-old usually spends more time in AAA than in the majors, but he has real power and would be a decent reserve if anyone would roster him for a full year. Nevertheless, I don't see him finding an opportunity in the Cubs infield in 2003. Pritchett has similar skills, but lacks the position flexibility of Hiatt.

Murray would have been an inexpensive alternative to Guthrie, but that would have forced the Cubs to realize that they had good pitchers who were being forced out of the pen by their insistence on carrying a second lefty. Last season at AAA Buffalo, he compiled a 32:6 K:BB with 23 H and 2 HR allowed in 29.2 IP for a 3.03 ERA. If either major league lefty is injured, he provides them with a good cushion. The downside is that he's had difficulty with his control in past major league opportunities.

Small's chances of breaking into the majors with the Cubs are tiny. The 31-year-old has failed to display the necessary skills at AAA to have any chance of competing with the other pitchers waiting in line to fill the Chicago bullpen.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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