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January
11th
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
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Fact or Ficktion

by Jessica Polko

Atlanta decided to commit to a starting first baseman this week, signing Robert Fick to a one-year, $1M contract. While I've long been in favor of the Braves finding a more permanent offensive option at first base, I believe Matt Franco earned a shot at the 2003 job, since they weren't going to bring in a superstar. Franco only received six at-bats against left-handed batters last year, but in his 199 AB against right-handers he lapped Fick.

Franco hit .317 with a .395 OBP and .517 SLG on 65 H, 15 2B, 4 3B, and 6 HR with a 27:31 BB:K and 1/1 SB% in 205 AB. Meanwhile, Fick hit .270 with a .331 OBP and .433 SLG on 150 H, 36 2B, 2 3B, and 17 HR with a 46:90 BB:K and 0/1 SB% in 556 AB, which broke down to a .281/.342/.427 against lefties and .265/.325/.436 against right-handers.

While only 28, Fick has a history of injury problems and just finished having surgery to repair torn cartilage in his right shoulder this off-season. Although he'll supposedly be healthy by Spring Training, I think the Braves have made a mistake prioritizing him above Franco. Fick reportedly will have the opportunity to earn another $350,000 in incentives.

The Braves also agreed to a contract with the arbitration-eligible Rafael Furcal this week. In his first year of arbitration-eligibility, the 24-year-old will receive $2.2M. Had he continued the success of his rookie year, Furcal might be looking at significantly more money. He was already deep in a sophomore slump when he suffered a separated shoulder in 2001. While supposedly healthy in 2002, Furcal didn't rebound. The loss of 20 points of BA and 70 points of OBP can be traced back to his plate discipline, which has suffered serious deterioration. He's both walking less and striking out more. His stolen base opportunities have been reduced due to this development, and he's also been less successful. The only area where I see growth in his skills is with his power, which has taken a very slight uptick, likely the result of a Furcal hitting a few more fly balls.

Furcal has shown he knows how to control the strike zone, so he could easily reclaim that skill at anytime. However until he rebounds, his value to the Braves is significantly reduced, and I won't expect them to consider locking him into a multi-year deal to buy out arbitration and free agent years.

In early December, the Braves agreed to a one-year, $750,000 contract with Darren Holmes. As his season was slightly less ostentatious than some of Atlanta's other relievers, they were able to re-sign the reliever at a salary within their budget. Holmes compiled a 47:12 K:BB with only 41 H and 3 HR allowed in 54.2 IP for a 1.81 ERA. He should continue to provide the Braves with strong relief in 2003. As he's already 36, there are some injury concerns, however his DL trip last year was the result of scrapping his thumb on a curb.

Atlanta has signed several players to minor league contracts, including OF-L Darren Bragg, C-S Lee Evans, 1B-R Julio Franco, RHP Chris Fussell, LHP Chris Haney, and LHP Sam McConnell. Bragg split last season between AAA and the majors with the Braves. The 33-year-old has demonstrated strong plate discipline in the past but recently he's left it in the minors when he advances to the majors. As he no longer offers much speed or power, he needs to hold onto his strike zone judgment if he's going to continue to hold a bench job in the majors. However, Atlanta has very little outfield depth, so he should grab a roster spot in Spring Training provided they go with five outfielders.

Pittsburgh drafted Lee Evans out of high school in the fourth round of the 1996 draft and traded him to the White Sox with Todd Ritchie for Josh Fogg, Sean Lowe, and Kip Wells. Evans split last season between Chicago's affiliates at AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte. In 243 AB at AAA, he hit .243 with a .295 OBP and .383 SLG on 59 H, 18 2B, 2 3B, and 4 HR with a 16:74 BB:K and 4/5 SB%. I've never understood why catchers, who spend so much time watching pitches and handling the strike zone for other batters aren't able to understand it themselves. Evan has some power upside and even a little speed, but he won't be an offensive threat until he improves his walk rate. The 25-year-old continues to bounce around playing several games at positions not behind the plate. This is the first season he's been eligible for minor league free agency. I neither expect Atlanta to call upon him during the year or to place him on their 40-man to retain him at the end of the season.

With Fick's signing, I don't see room for Julio Franco to grab a spot on the team this season. He continued to surprise last season maintaining much of the production he displayed in 2001. Provided he maintains his focus in the minors, I expect the 41-year-old to receive a call-up in case of injury and to be back on the roster in September.

Baltimore drafted Chris Fussell out of high school in the ninth round of the 1994 draft and traded him to Kansas City for Jeff Conine in 1999. Fussell had a chance to leave the Royals system last season but chose to re-sign. At AAA Omaha in 2002, the 26-year-old compiled a 103:71 K:BB with 165 H and 22 HR allowed in 164.2 IP for a 4.43 ERA over 27 starts in 28 appearances. Fussell has had control problems since joining the Kansas City organization and should probably consider a move to relief if he doesn't improve as a starter in 2003. Atlanta won't likely call upon him this season.

After 10 years as a AAAA pitcher, Haney spent 2001 in Japan. He came back to the States in 2002 and compiled a 31:10 K:BB with 27 H and 1 HR allowed for a 2.79 ERA in 29 IP at AAA Pawtucket in the Boston system. I think he has an excellent chance of winning a left-handed relief job with the Braves in Spring Training.

I'm not sure what Philly was up to leaving McConnell at AA for most of last year after he'd spent all of 2001 starting at the Pirates AAA. He needed some additional polish before reaching the majors, but a demotion didn't seem in order. He also spent some time in relief in 2002. I think the 27-year-old has a better chance of making the majors as a starter than many of the older pitchers still in minor league rotations. However, I'm sure he could grab a pen job as a lefty reliever. I don't know what the Braves have in mind for him.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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