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January
1st
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
2002 Holiday Leftovers: Pitchers

by Jessica Polko

Today, we'll continue looking at the free agents still on the market, focusing on a variety of pitchers.

The Mets foolishly lost interest in John Thomson this off-season and with the acquisition of Tom Glavine and re-signing of Steve Trachsel blocked him out of the rotation. Consequently, their non-tendering of the starter wasn't a big surprise, though I think they made a poor decision in filling their rotation with other pitchers. Thomson demonstrated strong skills last season and now that he's distanced himself from Coors field he should continue to blossom. While he's not a strikeout pitcher, he compensates with excellent control. His homer and hit rates were a bit above target levels last year, but again the move from Coors should help and a good defense should lower his H/9.

Thomson professes to be a small town guy, so he's a great candidate for teams like Kansas City, Detroit, and Tampa who need to add a high quality starter to their rotation but don't want to spend a lot of money. Having lost Byrd, the Royals should really add a starter, as they need an older pitcher to anchor that staff.

Paul Wilson's skills deteriorated somewhat last season, but he should still garner interest on the market as an innings eater. Tampa may try to re-sign him now that they've avoided arbitration. Kansas City is likely to show interest, and he's the type of pitcher Cincinnati might look at to fill out their rotation.

Kenny Rogers should have accepted whatever the Rangers were offering him, as he likely won't receive more on the open market and now he'll have to work away from his Texas home. I suspect Kansas City will have some interest and they are probably closer to his home than other potential homes. Given Seattle's interest in Rogers last season, Lou Piniella might ask the Devil Rays to pursue him. However, I don't see any teams with him at the top of their list. The 38-year-old's strikeouts dipped even further last season, though he posted strong control numbers.

While Texas may go with a rotation anchored by Park and filled out by their young pitchers, I think they're likely to add another veteran and I can see GM John Hart targeting Ismael Valdes again. He lost some dominance last season, but although he was troubled a bit by his chronic blister problems and a bruised heel, Valdes pitched more innings than he had in three of the previous four years. Additionally, the Rangers would likely once more be able to deal him mid-season if they wanted to move another youngster into the rotation.

I think Seattle made a mistake in non-tendering John Halama, however they seem likely to correct it by re-signing him. The Mariners simply weren't prepared for arbitration with Halama. He has very solid control skills, and while working in relief for a large portion of last season helped elevate his strikeouts, the 30-year-old was more dominant last season. However now that he's a free agent, I suspect Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Detroit will all make inquiries and anyone of them could sign him.

Daal's skills are very similar to those of Halama, and I can see the same group of teams pursuing the pair. Daal was looking at this year as his chance for a big payout, but he'll likely have to wait at least another season given the current market. Consequently, I expect him to sign a one-year deal and test the market again after a season of starting. He's another pitcher who will likely make good trade bait at the All-Star break for a team looking for a starter for the first half only, making Cleveland another possible destination.

Like almost all of the other starters remaining on the market, Jeff Suppan is a control pitcher with a fairly low strikeout rate. He might gain some additional interest as the youngest of this group, but I doubt he'll find the $4M he made last season. While the Royals could try to re-sign their own, I get the impression their looking for some new faces.

An ankle injury slowed Rick Helling last season, but he generally maintained his skill set. Teams looking to sign him should be wary of his homer problems, though he otherwise is a fairly solid pitcher. I'd be interested to see how he'd make out in Detroit.

Boston doesn't appear to want an established closer, so I no longer expect them to go after Roberto Hernandez as previously predicted. Hernandez's strikeout rate has dropped steadily over the last few years, and he struggled through an elbow problem early last season, so buyers should beware of potential health concerns. Tampa's closer situation is very up in the air, so he could return to the Devil Rays. Another possibility would be St. Louis, though I don't think they want to pay much.

Mark Guthrie remains a strong reliever and should find a receptive market. Anaheim might spend some of their increased payroll here. The Cubs are still considering adding another left-hander, and then there's the possibility of Colorado.

I realize I've suggested the same group of teams for many of the starters. Unfortunately the current economic state of the game has created many cautious and relatively tight-lipped buyers, so speculation is more difficult. St. Louis and Toronto are among the teams still somewhat interested in adding another starter but also prepared to go with the players they have rostered. We'll look at another selection of pitchers tomorrow.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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