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December
26th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
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Shawn with the Windy City

by Jessica Polko

Shawn Estes signed a one-year, $3M contract with the Cubs last week. Estes will re-join Dusty Baker for whom he played from 1995-2001. Cubs' bench coach Dick Pole was also Estes' pitching coach for the first three seasons of his career.

Estes began declining following the 1998 season, and after suffering another dip in his skills last year, the 29-year-old accepted a deal worth less than half of what he earned last season. However, the contract does include an additional $1.5M in performance bonuses, so he could earn up to $4.5M.

GM Jim Hendry began looking for a left-handed starter upon his promotion last season. I don't think most teams need a southpaw in the rotation until they're polishing a playoff roster, but when he failed to find anyone on the trade market, Hendry even went so far as to call up rookie Steve Smyth well before the pitcher was ready to handle a rotation job. Smyth likely needs to return to AAA for at least most of 2003, so I'm pleased Hendry's found a pitcher to prevent him from further pressuring the youngster.

However, Estes was hardly the cream of the crop. He's always walked far too many batters, and only in 1997 did he limit his hits sufficiently to prevent his control problems from allowing an excess of baserunners. He began his career with a good strikeout rate, but that has fallen to a barely acceptable level over the course of the last five years. I suspect he may have an undiagnosed shoulder problem, as doctors never revealed the cause of the shoulder inflammation he experienced from 1998-2000.

Provided he remains healthy, Estes should provide the Cubs with an adequate innings eater out of the fifth spot in the rotation. Estes' acquisition means that Juan Cruz will return to the pen, as he's better suited to relief than Carlos Zambrano, and Kerry Wood, Matt Clement and Mark Prior take up three rotation slots. While using Cruz as a reliever significantly strengthens the pen, I believe Chicago likely would win a few more games if Hendry weren't so fixated on having a lefty in the rotation and had foregone signing Estes while allowed Cruz to start.

The Cubs signed Alan Benes to a one-year, $600,000 contract. He'll compete for a spot in the pen during Spring Training, but although he's out of options, I expect the Chicago to successfully send him through waivers to the minors, where he should spend most of the season, unless the team needs a spot starter or injury replacement. Benes pitched fairly well for the Cubs last season, and they can afford to spend money on injury insurance, but they almost certainly could have found a less expensive pitcher to fill this role.

Antonio Alfonseca seemed destined to join the crowded ranks of players non-tendered this off-season. However at the last minute, the Cubs came through with a one-year, $4M contract. Due to regulations governing the maximum size a team can cut an arbitration-eligible player's salary, the team had to pay him several million, but giving him a raise seems somewhat excessive.

The 30-year-old suffered from serious control difficulties last season, justifying the Cubs lack of confidence in his ability to close. He'll only deserve this salary, if he's able to correct those control problems. However, Chicago was encouraged by reports that Alfonseca has lost 22 pounds this off-season, and the organization feels he will work particularly hard to perform well in his last season before free agency. Provided the scout wasn't discussing a small gambling loss in England, I tend to share the club's optimism.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Cubs picked up Troy O'Leary, signing the outfielder to a one-year, $750,000 contract. After trading Chad Hermansen the Cubs were basically without any reserve outfielders. O'Leary isn't someone they'll want to sub in center frequently, but he provides them with a back-up for left and right and a left-handed bat off the bench. The 33-year-old doesn't have any speed and only has a little pop in his bat, but he can take a walk and hit for a decent average. Chicago should still look for a fifth outfielder who can play center, but O'Leary is a nice pickup.

A month after acquiring him from the Diamondbacks, the Cubs signed Damian Miller to a two-year, $5.7M contract. The catcher will receive $2.7M in 2003 and $3M in 2004 with an additional $150,000 available in incentives each year. I'm still concerned about injury problems, but this price should look very nice if he's healthy. Meanwhile, they were also able to sign Paul Bako to a one-year $750,000 contract.

At this point it does not look as though the Cubs will sign Ivan Rodriguez, though he's been so dissatisfied with the interest teams have shown in him that at one point he was considering signing with a Japanese team. IRod would have been by far the most prominent foreign player to ever spend a season in Japan. Few people believe he will follow through on that threat, due to the risk that such an action might be held against him in Hall of Fame voting. However even if he were to retire now, Rodriguez would deserve election, so where he goes shouldn't effect his candidacy.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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