On Thursday, I cautioned the Giants against trading Kurt Ainsworth, but apparently I should have also included a warning to the Braves about trading Kevin Millwood in Wednesday's article. Greg Maddux accepted arbitration on Thursday, and on Friday Atlanta dealt Millwood to Philadelphia for Johnny Estrada. This sequence of events leads us to believe that despite the Braves' many playoff berths over the last decade, Atlanta GM John Schuerholz has no better understanding of how to structure a baseball team than Dan Aykroyd.

So far this off-season, Schuerholz has gone out of his way to acquire starting pitching, presumably in order to compensate for the expected loss of Tom Glavine and/or Greg Maddux via free agency. However, he went overboard in the extreme, compiling a collection of starters with gaudy reputations based on superficial stats that leave them open to sudden and sizeable declines. Consequently, when Maddux opted to accept arbitration, as virtually every baseball columnist in the world predicted he would if given a chance, Schuerholz found himself with an extra starter and a probable payroll about $15M above what he'd projected.

When Philadelphia extended Mike Lieberthal's contract, Estrada didn't seem likely to remain in the organization for long. While I felt they shouldn't have given Lieberthal the extension with Estrada in the background, the Phillies certainly found themselves in an enviable position this week when they were free to trade the catcher for a starter of Millwood's quality.

Estrada turned 26 this past June, which is fine if he's waiting to succeed the established starter in Philly, but his age should have downgraded his trade value. Philadelphia drafted him out of California's Junior College of the Sequoias in the 17th round of the 1997 draft, and he made his debut in 2001, so he only has one more option year remaining. However, I don't expect his shortage of options to be an issue, as Atlanta will want him in the majors as soon as possible to show off the loot they collected for Millwood. Given the Braves traded Millwood to accommodate Maddux, they had better hope that Maddux finds Estrada an acceptable catcher.

While Estrada has a decent defensive reputation, he's better known for his offensive upside. Unfortunately, although he has 20-homer potential, his plate discipline skills have not developed to support his power, so we don't know whether he'll be able to produce in the majors.

However we don't need to find fault with Estrada to say this was a bad trade for the Braves, as even looking at his upside, he wasn't acceptable compensation for the pitcher. Millwood was one of the best starters in baseball last season, compiling a 178:65 K:BB with 186 H and 16 HR allowed in 217 IP for a 3.24 ERA. Only Curt Schilling, Maddux, and Roy Oswalt pitched better among NL right-handers than Millwood, who turns 28 on Christmas Eve. Atlanta dealt him because he's expected to make $8-10M in 2003 through arbitration before exploring free agency next fall. Russ Ortiz and Paul Byrd, the two new starters that Schuerholz acquired this week, will combine to make nearly $8M in 2003. Consequently, had the Braves simply retained Damian Moss and refrained from signed Byrd, they wouldn't have "needed" to trade Millwood for salary reasons. Millwood and Moss combined to outperform Byrd and Ortiz in 2002, and based on the ages and respective skill trends of each pitcher, Millwood and Moss might significantly outshine the Braves' two new starters in 2003. Schuerholz also wouldn't have completely obliterated Atlanta's identity, which is located in their starting rotation and far more tied to the homegrown Glavine and Millwood than the imported Maddux.

Meanwhile, the Phillies have acquired a Brave who is a much better fit for their staff than the one they set out to sign this off-season. The Braves haven't abused Millwood's arm, and his only major injury problem in recent years was a cyst on his labrum in 2001, which required time to heal but shouldn't be a recurring issue. As a result, there's little reason to expect health problems.

Philadelphia has every reason to expect he can repeat or improve upon last year's performance in each of the next several seasons, so they should make the most of this opportunity and immediately offer Millwood a multi-year deal. With Millwood and Randy Wolf to anchor a rotation filled with emerging prospects, Philadelphia's starting staff could surpass Atlanta's veteran concoction. Factor in the Phillies' superior offense, and the Braves have just handed the division keys to their competition.

Schuerholz has an excellent reputation as a General Manager due to the Braves' frequent post-season appearances, however one cannot think of those playoff appearances without also remembering how often Atlanta has failed to close the deal. Horticulturalists should note that while the Brave perennial blooms brightly throughout the summer months and into late September, it withers quickly as October begins, suggesting it may be past time to begin blaming the gardener.

Yesterday's blunder was hardly unprecedented for Schuerholz, as he presided over the Royals' trade of RHP David Cone and OF Chris Jelic to the Mets in March of 1987 for C Ed Hearn, RHP Rick Anderson, and RHP Mauro Gozzo.

A shoulder injury immediately limited any potential Hearn possessed. Like Estrada, Hearn was 26 at the time of his trade, and he only played two seasons with the Royals, totaling 35 AB in 13 G with Kansas City. Before he could consider a comeback, he encountered cancer, kidney failure, blood deficiencies, a sleeping disorder, and, rather understandably, depression. Hearn survived his problems, but he never returned to baseball and now works as a motivational speaker.

Anderson was also only with the Royals for two seasons, in which he compiled a 21:18 K:BB with 67 H and 6 HR allowed in 47 IP for a 6.89 ERA and a 2-3 record over 5 starts in 13 appearances. Like Hearn, those seasons were the last two of his three years in the majors. Gozzo didn't play a single game for the Royals in the majors and left Kansas City before debuting in 1989 with Toronto.

Meanwhile, although Jelic didn't amount to much, only accumulating 11 AB in his 4 game major league career, Cone spent six years with the Mets as a cornerstone of their rotation. New York only traded him a few months before he was due to become a free agent and that deal that landed them Jeff Kent. Among Cone's more notable accomplishments, he was the fifth 20-game winner in Mets' history in a season in which he only had three losses. He also threw a 19 strikeout game that tied the NL record at that time for most strikeouts in a game. His less memorable achievements include becoming the first Met pitcher to get a pinch-hit. Cone's career compares favorably to Hall of Famers Dazzy Vance and Bob Lemon, and while he lacks the quantitative milestones that solidify HOF credentials, the 5-time All-Star won the 1994 AL CY and a handful of World Series' rings.

Estrada thankfully shouldn't encounter the health problems that plagued Hearn, and Millwood isn't likely to match Cone's overall production. However the similarities in the deals are hard to ignore, and Millwood remains an excellent pitcher who should continue improving in 2003 for Atlanta's primary division rival.