While the Giants offered arbitration to Jeff Kent on Saturday, they also secured a potential replacement. Ray Durham signed a three-year, $20.1M deal, which includes a $7M player option for 2006. Under the new contract, he'll receive a $3.6M signing bonus, $4M in 2003, $6M in 2004, and $6.5M in 2005.

Pedro Feliz inherited third when David Bell left for Philly, but if Kent stays he could take over, or Durham could move to centerfield. However very few people expect Kent to accept arbitration and other clubs are likely to offer a better package in a multi-year deal. The 34-year-old wants to take advantage of this off-season to sign a large multi-season contract, as teams likely will never again show the same interest they have in him now. Were Kent to accept arbitration, it would likely be in an effort to force the Giants' hand on a multi-year deal, which they could still negotiate, although I believe San Francisco isn't interested in making that kind of financial commitment.

Presuming Kent heads to another organization, the Giants will lose power while gaining some additional speed and avoiding the addition of another $4M to the payroll each year. Next season, Durham will cost them $2M less than they were paying Jeff Kent, and in the future they'll pay Durham approximately what Kent was receiving. Meanwhile, with his numbers inflated by his proximity to Barry Bonds' historic seasons, Kent will likely command at least a $10M/year salary. Whether Kent stays or departs, I believe San Francisco has secured Durham at a good price.

At 31, Durham's baserunning ability has already begun to decline as his success rate has dropped to 71% over the past three seasons. He should give the Giants some speed at the top of the lineup in 2003, though by the end of this contract I wouldn't be surprised if he'd dropped to below a dozen steals a year, depending on the manager's baserunning preference. Nevertheless, he is three years younger than Kent and doesn't appear to be at risk for a sharp decline until the end of the deal.

Meanwhile Marquis Grissom also signed with the Giants on Saturday, choosing to join an organization where he'll have a chance at significant playing time. San Francisco awarded him a two-year, $4.25M contract, which includes a $2.5M option for 2005 with a $250K buyout. He'll receive a $250,000 signing bonus, $1.75M in 2003, and $2M in 2004.

My main concern with this deal is that Grissom will turn 36 in April, and his skill set makes him quite susceptible to age-related decline. However at the moment, he's a strong player against left-handed pitching. The Giants can expect .280/.320/.510 from him when he faces southpaws and teams are more than willing to pay $6M plus a season for someone who can put up those numbers for a full season. Consequently, if San Francisco can find an inexpensive platoon partner for him, they should receive considerable production from the pair.

However I don't really expect them to go outside the organization for a platoon partner, and Grissom provides the Giants with better production than Marvin Benard regardless of the handedness of the pitcher on the mound. Consequently, Grissom presently appears to be set to take the majority of the centerfield at-bats. If someone else like Durham plays center, then San Francisco could try a platoon of Grissom and Tony Torcato in right.

San Francisco did not offer arbitration to any free agent other than Kent, and their off-season will likely move slowly until they know whether he'll return to the Giants or leave. However, the team is likely to move a starting pitcher or two regardless of Kent's plans, as they have at least two minor league pitchers ready to join the rotation in Kurt Ainsworth and Jesse Foppert. Fellow AAA starter Jerome Williams may have a higher ceiling than his two 2002 teammates, but Ainsworth and Foppert are older and more prepared to enter a major league rotation.

Livan Hernandez and Russ Ortiz are the two starters GM Brian Sabean is most likely to move. While the Giants would likely prefer to move Hernandez, there's much more interest in Ortiz. Toronto and St. Louis have both shown interest. The Giants are looking for an outfielder, potentially either Jose Cruz, Jr. or J.D. Drew, as Reggie Sanders won't be returning and Steve Finley has returned to the Diamondbacks.

Todd Noel signed a minor league contract with the Giants in late November. Originally drafted out of high school by the Cubs with the 17th overall pick in the first round of the 1996 draft, Noel has been traded twice and suffered from injury problems. When he's been healthy, the 24-year-old has displayed solid skills as a starter, but he might want to consider a move to relief as it looks like he lacks the stamina to start. Due to his injury-stunted development, he likely won't rise above AA in 2003, but if he's ever healthy his skills indicate solid upside.