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December 5th 2002 |
Out of the Frying Pan |
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by Jessica Polko Oakland traded RHP Billy Koch and two players to be named later to the White Sox for RHP Keith Foulke, RHP Joe Valentine, C-L Mark Johnson, and cash considerations on Tuesday. Chicago GM Kenny Williams appears to once again found the need to trade for shiny trinkets, though there may be more substance to the baubles this time. Keith Foulke fell out of favor with the White Sox last season, however he continued to post solid skills. His K/9 has fallen over the past couple of seasons from the 10.5 of 1999 to last year's 6.7, which is troubling. Nevertheless, the 30-year-old continues to limit batters to only 1.5 BB/9 and 7.5 H/9. The move to Oakland's pitcher-friendly environment should give him an additional edge. I'm a bit surprised that Williams would let someone with Joe Valentine's minor league saves (36) leave, as that's the kind of statistic to which he pays attention. However, Billy Beane managed to talk him out of the 22-year-old, who posted a 63:30 K:BB with 36 H and 1 HR in 59.1 IP for a 1.97 ERA at AA Birmingham in the Southern League last season. Valentine should probably stop in AAA before ascending to the major league pen, but he appears fully capable of making the short list of minor league closers who contribute in the majors. Mark Johnson is highly skilled in taking a walk, which likely endeared him to the Athletics. He doesn't have a lot of power or speed, though I could see him hitting double-digit homers with 300 AB. The 27-year-old should provide Oakland with a quality back-up for Ramon Hernandez. Billy Koch pitched one of the more gaudy seasons in recent history, saving 44 games while vulturing 11 wins. At 27, Koch is displaying more dominance than Foulke and similarly controls the hits he allows; unfortunately he's displayed a tendency to walk more than a comfortable number of batters, posting a 4.4 BB/9 last season. Runs Saved Above Average is probably the most useful tool for comparing relievers and Foulke's performance has placed him at or near the top of the pack for the last few years, considerably above Koch, who has performed well but not to the same standard. Any improvement that Koch brings to the White Sox pitching staff will be due to Chicago making better use of Koch's skills than they did with Foulke's, rather than superior performance by Koch. The idea that Koch will serve Chicago better as their closer is all in their head. Chicago should be happy with Koch as their closer, though I wouldn't expect him to post the kind of save and win totals he compiled last season, as the White Sox won't provide him with that opportunity. The contract status of both closers played a significant part in this trade. The White Sox were no longer interested in Foulke, who they felt they'd given a bad deal. Meanwhile as Koch is arbitration eligible, the smart move is to sign him to a multi-year contract, and Oakland wasn't really interested in committing to a closer for more than a season. Now the A's have Foulke, who should be great this year and will be a free agent after the season, allowing Oakland to move on while collecting their compensation draft picks. Valentine joins a system stocked with pitching prospects that could be used as closers, though I doubt he'll top their list of potential Foulke replacements unless he dominates the major league pen in the second half of 2003. Oakland's current setup man Chad Bradford could assume the role, or Beane could once again head to the trade market to pick up a closer, as he's done the past two seasons. Chicago will sign Koch to a multi-year deal, which shouldn't be a bad investment for their team but seems an unnecessary expense. The White Sox are hoping this move will solidify their bullpen, so that their starters only need to complete 5 or 6 innings and then the relievers can close it out. Damaso Marte and Antonio Osuna, who contributed to the closer committee last season, will setup Koch, providing a strong finish. I like the plan for next season, but after that the White Sox should have a few failed starting prospects ready to dominate in relief and Koch may seem superfluous. Of course if they don't sign Koch to an absurd contract and he remains healthy after a heavy workload last season, Koch should be an easy player for Kenny Williams to move. One of the two players to be named later is supposedly LHP Neal Cotts, though that can't officially be announced until after the Rule 5 draft. Oakland drafted Cotts out of Illinois State University in the second round of the 2001 draft. He split the remainder of that season between Vancouver in the Short-season Northwest League and A+ Visalia in the California League. Last season Cotts spent the entire year with Oakland's other A+ franchise at Modesto, where he compiled a 178:87 K:BB with 123 H and 5 HR allowed in 137.2 IP for a 4.12 ERA. The 22-year-old appears to have considerable potential, but needs to improve his control. I suspect the White Sox will move him up to AA next season, though they should be careful about rushing him. He could be a productive starter for the team in a few years and has the added benefit of being a native of the state. However, the Sox have had difficulty developing their pitching prospects, so with his control problems he's far from a sure thing. Oakland has numerous other pitching prospects with similar and higher upsides, so they can afford to include Cotts in this deal. While the final player in the deal could even the trade for the White Sox, right now I believe that Oakland will be happier with their end of this deal.
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