After much deliberation, Jim Thome chose to accept Philadelphia's offer on Monday, leaving Cleveland for the Phillies. Thome signed a six-year contract for $85M, of which $10M is a signing bonus. The remainder of the contract will reportedly be broken into $9.5M for 2003, $10.5M for 2004, $11.5M for 2005, $12.5M for 2006, and $14M in both 2007 and 2008. There is also a $13M vesting option for 2009 with a $3M buyout.

Cleveland drafted Thome out of Illinois Central Junior College in the 13th round of the 1989 draft, so this will be the first time he's left the Indian organization. Thome's long-standing relationship with the Indians was the sticking point in completing his new contract with Philadelphia, as he and his wife weren't sure they wanted to move.

However, the Phillies' overwhelming eagerness won them over when compared to an Indians' organization that appeared to need prodding to make even minor increases to their offer. Thome received the impression from Cleveland that he might be burdening the organization if he were to stay. The 32-year-old now has a contract that will likely take him through the end of his career. Nonetheless, I believe he's made a mistake if he was looking for the best shot at winning and an environment with loving fans.

Thome may have received a standing ovation when he attended a Philadelphia Flyers' game, but the fans of that city are notoriously unforgiving. His honeymoon will likely be quite short. I also think that Cleveland has a far better chance of re-emerging as a playoff and World Series power over the course of his new contract than the Phillies. Philadelphia may have more pieces in the majors, but the Indians should dwarf them in overall potential by the end of 2003.

There's no doubt that Thome was an outstanding player last season, excelling in almost every area. He led all American League players with 96.0 Runs Above Replacement, finishing second only to Barry Bonds among all Major Leaguers. Thome finished first in virtually every important offensive category among first basemen, while setting a personal best 1.122 OPS by virtue of a career high SLG combined with his second best OBP. Additionally while he strikes out a good deal, he's among the best in the majors at taking a walk.

Thome currently ranks 11th in Major League history with a .982 career OPS, and he should pass Mark McGwire this season to move into 10th place all-time. He probably needs only two more years at his current level of production to secure significant Hall of Fame consideration. Also, after averaging forty homers a year over the last seven seasons, he should reach 500 home runs in about four years, cementing his Cooperstown credentials.

He likely won't quite match his 2002 production in Philadelphia next year, but he should come close, and we can expect him to continue at a similar level for a season or two. However, that corresponds with the Phillies' window to make a run at the World Series. If they miss that window, Thome will start to drop off and they'll be left with an aging slugger. Of course, as Thome's a first baseman without much fielding skill, there are questions as to whether the Phillies have committed themselves to a defensive nightmare in the later years of his deal. Provided they're able to surround Thome with a team that wins the World Series, then this kind of investment makes sense, as that achievement is worth future sacrifice. Unfortunately, I think Philadelphia has made a mistake in committing this kind of time and money to a player practically past his prime.

I've not seen anyone address the issue of a no-trade clause when discussing this deal. While it is possible that his contract includes at least a partial no-trade agreement that didn't make the news, I highly doubt Thome will receive the stability he reportedly desired if he failed to secure trade veto rights. Philadelphia will hold onto him for the next few years as they make their run at the World Series, however once that run concludes, particularly if it ends unsuccessfully, I fully expect him to be shipped out, so the team can avoid many of the age related problems discussed above. In that case, they may be able to salvage the situation and not come out too poorly. Thome will just have to hope he's traded back to the Indians.

In response to a question at Thome's press conference, GM Ed Wade commented that the Phillies would try to find Travis Lee a place where he can start, so we can expect to see a Lee trade by the time the Winter Meetings end on December 16th. Jeremy Giambi's future wasn't mentioned, but there's reportedly significant interest in him on the trade market, and I can't imagine Philadelphia holding onto him as a back-up if there's a good deal available.

Cleveland could search outside the organization for a first baseman, but one of the primary questions when they picked up Ben Broussard from the Reds last season was where would they find room to play him. Broussard is primarily a first baseman and should take over the job. Additionally, while there are significant holes in his skills, he possesses considerable potential and could be molded into a very productive member of the Indians' next successful team.