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December 2nd 2002 |
Out of the Frying Pan |
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by Jessica Polko As the new labor agreement ultimately did not eliminate draft pick compensation for free agents, today, as I did last season, I will be recommending which American League free agents should be offered arbitration, paying specific attention to their ranking by the Elias Sports Bureau. To recap, Elias does a yearly ranking of all the players in major league baseball. These ratings are then used to determine draft pick compensation to teams who lose free agents. Type A players, those ranked in the top 30%, mean the loss of a first round pick for the team that signs the free agent to the player's former team and a supplemental 1st round pick for that former team. Type B players, those ranked between 31-50%, mean the loss of a first round pick. Type C players, those ranked between 51-60%, give the former team a supplemental 1st round pick. Qualifiers: A team cannot lose their first round pick if they are drafting in the first half of the first round. They instead lose their second round pick. If a team signs more than one player that would warrant the loss of their first round pick, then the picks are awarded according to the highest ranking of the players involved. For example if a team were to sign Ivan Rodriguez(A) and Darren Holmes(B), Texas would receive their first round pick and Atlanta would receive their second round pick. Because the brackets are based on an overall ranking, you can also determine which player's former team of two A players would receive the superior compensation in a similar circumstance. For the purposes of this article, I will focus on each player's designation instead of comparing their overall rating. The maximum number of picks you can lose or gain is only limited to the number of free agents that you lose or sign. However, in order for a team to qualify for compensation they must offer the player arbitration before the deadline. This year's deadline is December 7th. Players signed before the deadline still need to be technically offered arbitration; however they cannot accept, so there is no risk. There is no reason not to offer signed free agents arbitration. With unsigned players there is a risk that they will accept arbitration, and the team will be stuck with a player they'd rather not have or at a price at which they'd rather not have him. There is only a cost to a team signing a free agent when that free agent is in the A or a B brackets. However, the player's former team needs to consider C ranked players because of the supplemental pick involved. If a team wants to continue contract negotiations with a player after the deadline, they must offer arbitration by the deadline; for all players below the 60% level, this is the only reason for a team to offer arbitration to them.
Anaheim Anaheim also shouldn't give Dennis Cook (C) a chance to accept arbitration. Orlando Palmeiro is below C level, however the Angels want to re-sign him, and even if they can't reach a deal outside of arbitration, he shouldn't cost them too much. Baltimore Mike Bordick (B) will almost certainly accept, if offered arbitration, so the Orioles cannot offer it to him unless they want him back, and unfortunately the organization would be better served by giving his playing time to other players on the team.
Boston Alan Embree (B) has already re-signed with them, so there's no need to offer him arbitration. Boston doesn't need or want Frank Castillo (B) back, so they shouldn't offer him arbitration, as it provides him with an opportunity to earn a much larger salary than he'll likely find on the open market. The Red Sox have no place for Dustin Hermanson (C) and an arbiter would likely award him much more than he's worth, so he should not be offered arbitration. Willie Banks (C) is another player they don't need back and can't count to decline arbitration. Rey Sanchez (C) can likely safely be offered arbitration, as even if they decide they're not interested in re-signing him. Some other team will almost certainly pursue him, allowing them to collect compensation. Shane Andrews, Tony Clark, and Rickey Henderson are all below C, so since the Red Sox have no interest in them returning they shouldn't be offered arbitration. If the team wants to re-sign Carlos Baerga, who is also below C then they could offer him arbitration, but they probably shouldn't bother.
Cleveland Travis Fryman (B) has retired, so the Indians should not offer him arbitration. Dave Burba (C) should not be given the opportunity to obtain an arbitration inflated salary. Cleveland shouldn't bother offering arbitration to Charles Nagy, Eddie Perez, or Lee Stevens all of whom are below C, as none should return to the Indians next year. They reportedly have some interest in bringing back Terry Mulholland, below C, but I'd let him go if he's not signed in the next week, rather than face a potential arbitration hearing.
Chicago
Detroit Matt Walbeck, below C, has already re-signed with the Tigers on a minor league deal.
Kansas City Roberto Hernandez (B) is the type of player who will receive a large award in an arbitration hearing, so unfortunately the Royals cannot risk the slight chance he'll opt for the easy money. Neither Luis Alicea nor Chuck Knoblauch, who are both below C, should be offered arbitration.
Minnesota
New York The Yankees won't want to bother offering arbitration to John Vander Wal (B) or Alex Arias, Ron Coomer, and Chris Widger, who are all below C.
Oakland David Justice (B) is considering retirement but might jump at the chance of arbitration, so they shouldn't give him that opportunity. Randy Velarde (B) has retired and shouldn't be offered arbitration. Greg Myers (B) should not be offered arbitration, as he'd likely jump at the chance to remain with the A's on an arbitration salary. Oakland needs to work out a deal with him this week if they want him to stay. The A's should not give either John Mabry or Olmedo Saenz, who are both below C, an opportunity to grab an arbitration salary. They're both easily replaceable. Jeff Tam has signed with Toronto, but he's below C so there's no need to bother.
Seattle Seattle would also like to re-sign Jaime Moyer (A) and John Olerud (A), so they should both be offered arbitration, since worst case they'll bring nice compensation if they leave for new organizations. I'd also likely offer to Ismael Valdes (B), given his designation, since the potential compensations is worth the risk and he wouldn't be bad to have around if he sticks them with arbitration. However, James Baldwin (B), Norm Charlton (B), Ruben Sierra (C), and Jose Offerman, below C, should not be given a shot at arbitration salaries. The Marines should come to an agreement this week with Pat Borders, below C, if they want him back at AAA.
Tampa Bay
Texas Bill Haselman (B), Todd Hollandsworth (B), and Rudy Seanez (C) are too likely to jump at the easy money and aren't needed in the organization. The Rangers also shouldn't bother with Rich Rodriguez, below C.
Toronto
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here to read the previous article.
I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read
the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your
opinions to
jess@rotohelp.com. |
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