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December
2nd
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
AL FA Arbitration Recommendations 2002

by Jessica Polko

As the new labor agreement ultimately did not eliminate draft pick compensation for free agents, today, as I did last season, I will be recommending which American League free agents should be offered arbitration, paying specific attention to their ranking by the Elias Sports Bureau. To recap, Elias does a yearly ranking of all the players in major league baseball. These ratings are then used to determine draft pick compensation to teams who lose free agents.

Type A players, those ranked in the top 30%, mean the loss of a first round pick for the team that signs the free agent to the player's former team and a supplemental 1st round pick for that former team. Type B players, those ranked between 31-50%, mean the loss of a first round pick. Type C players, those ranked between 51-60%, give the former team a supplemental 1st round pick.

Qualifiers: A team cannot lose their first round pick if they are drafting in the first half of the first round. They instead lose their second round pick. If a team signs more than one player that would warrant the loss of their first round pick, then the picks are awarded according to the highest ranking of the players involved. For example if a team were to sign Ivan Rodriguez(A) and Darren Holmes(B), Texas would receive their first round pick and Atlanta would receive their second round pick. Because the brackets are based on an overall ranking, you can also determine which player's former team of two A players would receive the superior compensation in a similar circumstance. For the purposes of this article, I will focus on each player's designation instead of comparing their overall rating.

The maximum number of picks you can lose or gain is only limited to the number of free agents that you lose or sign. However, in order for a team to qualify for compensation they must offer the player arbitration before the deadline. This year's deadline is December 7th. Players signed before the deadline still need to be technically offered arbitration; however they cannot accept, so there is no risk. There is no reason not to offer signed free agents arbitration. With unsigned players there is a risk that they will accept arbitration, and the team will be stuck with a player they'd rather not have or at a price at which they'd rather not have him.

There is only a cost to a team signing a free agent when that free agent is in the A or a B brackets. However, the player's former team needs to consider C ranked players because of the supplemental pick involved. If a team wants to continue contract negotiations with a player after the deadline, they must offer arbitration by the deadline; for all players below the 60% level, this is the only reason for a team to offer arbitration to them.

Anaheim
Alex Ochoa (B) would probably accept if the Angels offered him arbitration. Consequently, they shouldn't risk it even though the compensation would be nice, as he's perhaps the most replaceable piece of the team.

Anaheim also shouldn't give Dennis Cook (C) a chance to accept arbitration.

Orlando Palmeiro is below C level, however the Angels want to re-sign him, and even if they can't reach a deal outside of arbitration, he shouldn't cost them too much.

Baltimore Mike Bordick (B) will almost certainly accept, if offered arbitration, so the Orioles cannot offer it to him unless they want him back, and unfortunately the organization would be better served by giving his playing time to other players on the team.

Boston
The Red Sox should offer arbitration to both Cliff Floyd (A) and Ugueth Urbina (A). Boston wouldn't mind having either player back on a one-year deal and neither player's arbitration award should fall far from their value. Most likely both will decline in favor of pursuing a multi-year deal elsewhere, leaving the Red Sox with draft picks to help build up their farm system.

Alan Embree (B) has already re-signed with them, so there's no need to offer him arbitration. Boston doesn't need or want Frank Castillo (B) back, so they shouldn't offer him arbitration, as it provides him with an opportunity to earn a much larger salary than he'll likely find on the open market.

The Red Sox have no place for Dustin Hermanson (C) and an arbiter would likely award him much more than he's worth, so he should not be offered arbitration. Willie Banks (C) is another player they don't need back and can't count to decline arbitration.

Rey Sanchez (C) can likely safely be offered arbitration, as even if they decide they're not interested in re-signing him. Some other team will almost certainly pursue him, allowing them to collect compensation.

Shane Andrews, Tony Clark, and Rickey Henderson are all below C, so since the Red Sox have no interest in them returning they shouldn't be offered arbitration. If the team wants to re-sign Carlos Baerga, who is also below C then they could offer him arbitration, but they probably shouldn't bother.

Cleveland
Jim Thome (A) will almost certainly have signed either with the Indians or another club by December 7th. If for some reason he's still on the market, there's no reason for them not to offer arbitration as they'd love to have him back for another season and certainly want compensation if he leaves.

Travis Fryman (B) has retired, so the Indians should not offer him arbitration.

Dave Burba (C) should not be given the opportunity to obtain an arbitration inflated salary.

Cleveland shouldn't bother offering arbitration to Charles Nagy, Eddie Perez, or Lee Stevens all of whom are below C, as none should return to the Indians next year. They reportedly have some interest in bringing back Terry Mulholland, below C, but I'd let him go if he's not signed in the next week, rather than face a potential arbitration hearing.

Chicago
I doubt it is merely coincidence that December 7th is the deadline for Frank Thomas (B) to determine whether he wants to continue to test free agency and abandon his current deal with the White Sox or accept the restructuring of his contract. Chicago should be able to safely offer him arbitration if he chooses free agency.

Detroit
The Tigers should definitely offer Juan Acevedo (A) arbitration. After his stint as their closer he's likely to garner considerable interest on the free agent market, and Detroit could use the draft picks. Even if he were to accept, they should be able to deal him during the season.

Matt Walbeck, below C, has already re-signed with the Tigers on a minor league deal.

Kansas City
The Royals would like Paul Byrd (B) back, so he needs to be offered arbitration, though he'll likely leave for a multi-year deal with another organization and Kansas City will have to make due with the draft pick.

Roberto Hernandez (B) is the type of player who will receive a large award in an arbitration hearing, so unfortunately the Royals cannot risk the slight chance he'll opt for the easy money.

Neither Luis Alicea nor Chuck Knoblauch, who are both below C, should be offered arbitration.

Minnesota
The Twins have too many bullpen candidates and too little payroll flexibility to offer either Mike Jackson (B) or Bob Wells (B) arbitration.

New York
All of the Yankees A players (Roger Clemens, Ramiro Mendoza, Mike Stanton, and Robin Ventura) should be offered arbitration. New York wouldn't mind having any of them back and they certainly want the draft picks if they leave.

The Yankees won't want to bother offering arbitration to John Vander Wal (B) or Alex Arias, Ron Coomer, and Chris Widger, who are all below C.

Oakland
Oakland wouldn't mind having Ray Durham (A) back, and they've thoroughly stocked their farm system over the past few years with compensation picks, so he should be offered arbitration.

David Justice (B) is considering retirement but might jump at the chance of arbitration, so they shouldn't give him that opportunity.

Randy Velarde (B) has retired and shouldn't be offered arbitration.

Greg Myers (B) should not be offered arbitration, as he'd likely jump at the chance to remain with the A's on an arbitration salary. Oakland needs to work out a deal with him this week if they want him to stay.

The A's should not give either John Mabry or Olmedo Saenz, who are both below C, an opportunity to grab an arbitration salary. They're both easily replaceable.

Jeff Tam has signed with Toronto, but he's below C so there's no need to bother.

Seattle
Edgar Martinez (A), Dan Wilson (A), and Shigetoshi Hasegawa (B) have already re-signed with the Marines and don't need to be offered arbitration.

Seattle would also like to re-sign Jaime Moyer (A) and John Olerud (A), so they should both be offered arbitration, since worst case they'll bring nice compensation if they leave for new organizations.

I'd also likely offer to Ismael Valdes (B), given his designation, since the potential compensations is worth the risk and he wouldn't be bad to have around if he sticks them with arbitration.

However, James Baldwin (B), Norm Charlton (B), Ruben Sierra (C), and Jose Offerman, below C, should not be given a shot at arbitration salaries.

The Marines should come to an agreement this week with Pat Borders, below C, if they want him back at AAA.

Tampa Bay
Unfortunately, the Devil Rays can't risk John Flaherty (B) accepting arbitration, and neither Wilson Alvarez nor Chris Gomez, who are both below C, are worth retaining at the potential cost of arbitration.

Texas
Texas has to offer Ivan Rodriguez (A) arbitration, as they should be pleased if he accepts and need the compensation if he leaves for another organization. The same logic applies to Kenny Rogers (B).

Bill Haselman (B), Todd Hollandsworth (B), and Rudy Seanez (C) are too likely to jump at the easy money and aren't needed in the organization. The Rangers also shouldn't bother with Rich Rodriguez, below C.

Toronto
The Blue Jays won't want to give Esteban Loaiza (B) the opportunity to accept arbitration, and Felix Heredia or Steve Parris, who are both below C, are worth an offer.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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