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November
15th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
The Best Port in the Storm

by Jessica & Tim Polko

While they continue to search for a new General Manager, the Red Sox have remained active this off-season with interim GM Mike Port still manning the front office, though his moves are likely highly supervised by Red Sox President Larry Luchino and the rest of the ownership group. Last week there was quite a stir when Oakland actually granted Boston permission to speak with their General Manager, Billy Beane. The Red Sox had been interested in Beane from the beginning of their hunt, but they were unable to procure permission to interview him. At one point, it looked like all they needed was final approval on a package to compensate the Athletics for Beane, however at the last moment Beane decided he wanted to remain with Oakland for family reasons.

The Beane commotion occurred slightly after Boston hired legendary analyst Bill James. We're somewhat divided over James' usefulness to the Red Sox as the majority of influential front office members, including team owner John Henry, are James' devotees and already subscribe to many of his theories. However this probably just makes Boston more receptive to alternative methods of evaluation when looking to acquire talent, so we don't see how this move could negatively impact the Red Sox.

Most of Boston's offense looks very set with C Jason Varitek, SS Nomar Garciaparra, LF Manny Ramirez, and CF Johnny Damon all under contract through at least 2004. First baseman Brian Daubach and RF Trot Nixon are both arbitration-eligible but seem likely to return, and 3B Shea Hillenbrand isn't even eligible for arbitration. The only two holes in the offense are second base and DH, and the Red Sox could promote internally, elevating Freddy Garcia and Juan Diaz to the respective positions. However we expect them to sign established major leaguers for both positions, perhaps even 2002 starters Rey Sanchez and Cliff Floyd.

Boston's pitching staff is far more complicated as they entered the off-season with only Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, John Burkett, and Bobby Howry signed through at least 2003. Second-year lefty Casey Fossum should join Martinez, Lowe, and Burkett in the rotation, but the Red Sox otherwise had at least six staff vacancies at the end of the World Series.

Fortunately they moved quickly in the last week to re-sign perhaps their best two free agents, swingman Tim Wakefield and lefty reliever Alan Embree, before they could negotiate with our teams. Wakefield signed a three-year deal for $13.02M while Embree re-upped for $5.5M over two years. As part of his deal, Boston declined Wakefield's $3.2M option.

While Wakefield, 36, only started 32 of his 90 games over the last two years, his durability as a knuckleball pitcher made him one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball. He's displayed very solid skills while dropping his ERA down to impressive levels after a couple years over 5.00; he contended for the AL ERA title for much of this year before eventually finishing fourth, behind teammates Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, and AL Cy Young winner Barry Zito. Wakefield also posted the third best WHIP in the AL along with the second best OBA, third best OOPS, and the 8th best winning percentage in the league. Taking all his stats into account, Wakefield finished as the 17th best pitcher in baseball and the 10th best American Leaguer.

The Red Sox will pay Wakefield $4M in 2003, $4.35M in 2004, and $4.67M in 2005. Although he'll turn 39 in the last year of this deal, knuckleball pitchers typically peak far later than every other pitcher, so he should remain an effective pitcher for the next few years. A $4.34M average salary is very reasonable for an excellent #3 starter and swingman, so both Boston and Wakefield should be pleased with this contract.

Boston's entire rotation seems set following the Wakefield signing, as Lowe, Wakefield, Fossum, and Burkett should follow Pedro, giving the opposition a different look every day. The Red Sox might sign another starter, perhaps even a future Hall of Famer like Tom Glavine, but they already own one of the best rotations in baseball, so they mostly need to add depth.

Their bullpen is far more complicated, as among the pitchers on their 40-man roster, only Bobby Howry will be in the pen, and only righty Andy Shibilo and recent signing RHP Hanzel Izquierdo seem likely to contribute in the majors. Adding a couple of veterans appeared vital, and no one was surprised when they re-signed Embree.

He'll receive $2.75M in both 2003 and 2004, and Boston holds a team option of $3M for 2005. Embree signed a one-year, $500K "make-good" contract with San Diego last season after a terrible year split between San Francisco and the White Sox in which he posted a 7.33 ERA. He re-emerged as one of the best lefties in baseball with the Padres, posting a 0.94 ERA in 28.2 innings before San Diego packaged him with Andy Shibilo for minor leaguers Brad Baker and Dan Giese. Giving up a potential top-of-the-rotation starter is a high price for a pitcher who needed to earn his 25-man roster spot last Spring Training, however he remained a dominant reliever with the Red Sox, compiling a 2.97 ERA in 33.1 innings and even saving two games.

Embree finished the season as the seventeenth most valuable reliever in baseball, and with the likely departure of Ugueth Urbina unless Boston signs an established closer like Roberto Hernandez or Tom Gordon, Embree will enter Spring Training as the primary closer. Given that he's remained a dominant pitcher with good command throughout his entire career, owning an 8.8 K/9 and 2.3 K:BB, our only concern is that he avoid the homer problems that plagued him in 2001. His skills were fine other than a ridiculous 2.3 HR/9, so in light of his excellent 2002 and career history, Boston made a good investment. Securing a top reliever for under a $3M average salary is a solid accomplishment even given the expected downturn in the market this winter.

Aside from the Wakefield and Embree moves, Boston also signed several minor league free agents. They recently added infielders C-R Chris Coste, C-L Jeff Smith, UT-S Nelson Cruz, SS/OF-S James Lofton, RHP Tom Davey, RHP Gustavo Lopez, RHP Justin Kaye, LHP Josh Stevens, and RHP Paul Stewart. Coste, 29, and Smith, 28, will likely platoon at AAA Pawtucket, although both catchers possess decent power and respectable discipline, so they might see some time in Boston as injury replacements. Neither Castro, 26, nor Lofton, 28, appears ready to contribute as more than AAAA filler.

However Boston picked up a very interesting assortment of pitching talent. Both Davey, 29, and Kaye, 26, are hard-throwing right-handers with excellent minor league numbers and sufficient major league experience where the Red Sox should be comfortable sticking them in next year's bullpen at the beginning of the year. While Lopez, 23, Stevens, 23, and Stewart, 24, are all minor league pitchers with excellent command who haven't pitched above AA at any point in their careers, all three are decent prospects who might help by the end of the year if they post good numbers in the upper minors. Between these five arms, Wakefield, Embree, and Bill James, Boston interim GM Mike Port again established that he deserves a multi-year contract commensurate with the skills he's displayed over the past season.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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