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November
8th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
Lowe-balled

by Jessica Polko

Arizona's Randy Johnson won the National League Cy Young on Tuesday, while Oakland's Barry Zito received the American League Cy Young on Thursday. Johnson received all of the first place votes cast for a unanimous victory with which we couldn't agree more.

Randy finished the season with a 24-5 record on a 334:71 K:BB with 197 H and 26 HR allowed in 260 IP for a 2.32 ERA. He also pitched 8 complete games, four of which were shutouts. This Cy Young is the 39-year-old lefty's fifth overall and fourth in a row.

As we did with the Rookie of the Year candidates and as we will again when we look at MVP candidates, we used Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) to preliminarily rank the pitchers. We also looked at Support Neutral Wins as a secondary tool.

Consequently, we felt Johnson far outpaced the competition by the end of the year, though the race was quite close before September. Of course Curt Schilling came in second, as he did in the actual voting. This year marks the first time in history that the same two teammates have ranked first and second in Cy Young voting in consecutive years.

John Smoltz came in third in the actual voting, followed by Eric Gagne and Roy Oswalt in a tie for fourth. We had Oswalt third, significantly back from Schilling, with Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine close behind Oswalt. Smoltz and Gagne fell much farther down our list, as it's much harder for relievers to amass a large VORP.


Zito finished with a record of 23-5 on a 182:23 K:BB with 182 H and 24 HR allowed in 229.1 IP for a 2.75 ERA. The 24-year-old lefty also pitched one complete game, which was not a shutout. I include the information on complete games and shutouts, because I find it somewhat interesting and such things do have value to teams. However, I do not consider them a vital part of the resumé of a successful pitcher. Many pitchers irreversibly injure themselves trying for the shutout or even just a complete game. Teams have bullpens for a reason, and although it's nice to give the relief corps a day off, it is far more important to keep the dominant starter healthy for both the majority of the current year and future seasons.

We were not nearly as pleased with the AL Cy Young as we were with the NL. Zito ranked second on our list behind Boston's Derek Lowe, who came in third in the actual voting. We had second place finisher Pedro Martinez ranking third, as given the similarity of their performances, we placed more value on the additional games pitched by Zito. Jarrod Washburn came in fourth in the actual voting and no other pitchers received votes. We ranked Roy Halladay and Tim Hudson fourth and fifth respectively, although Washburn posted stats very close to those of Halladay and Hudson.


While Zito pitched 10 more innings than Lowe, won two more games, and amassed 55 more strikeouts, Lowe finished with better marks in ERA, WHIP, OBA, OOBP, OSLG, and OOPS, along with a huge advantage in G-F ratio of a major league-best 3.46 to .74 for Zito. They finished 1-2 in AL in Support-Neutral Wins Above Replacement at 7.0-6.5, and among AL pitchers, only Pedro ranked above 5.8 SNWAR at 6.4. Lowe also held a huge VORP lead over all his competition at 79.0, the second best mark in baseball and well above Pedro(68.7), Halladay(66.1), and Zito(65.0). Oakland even fielded a slightly superior defense to Boston, and the difference in run support between Zito(6.79) and Lowe(6.84) was also negligible. Finally, when we account for the lone impressive pitching accomplishment this season, Lowe's April 27th no-hitter, we don't see how anyone can select a pitcher other than Lowe for the AL Cy Young.

Coincidentally, while the two winning lefties have different pitching styles and very dissimilar personalities, both attended the University of Southern California. The 6'10", 230 lb Johnson originated from Walnut Creek, California, though he currently lives in Arizona. Montreal drafted Johnson in the second round of the 1985 draft and then traded him with RHP Brian Holman and RHP Gene Harris to Seattle for LHP Mark Langston and RHP Mike Campbell in May of 1989. Johnson debuted with the Expos on September 15, 1988 after less than four seasons in the minors. After the trade, he remained with Seattle until 1998, when in anticipation of his pending free agency, the Mariners dealt him to Houston for 2B Carlos Guillen, RHP Freddy Garcia, and LHP John Halama. Johnson then signed with the Diamondbacks that off-season, where he has remained for the past four years, winning his first and only World Series ring in 2001. He bats right-handed when necessary, though his focus on his pitching is quite obvious in his performance at the plate.

The 6'4", 210 lb Zito was born in Las Vegas, Nevada. Oakland drafted him with the ninth overall pick in the first round of the 1999 draft. Zito debuted July 22, 2000 after only a little over a season in the minors. He theoretically bats lefty, but only has 9 AB in his career.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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