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October
31st
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
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NL East Off-Season Thoughts

by Jessica Polko

As players file for free agency and teams make decisions on options, I want to take a look at organizations by division, discussing their plans and possible moves in the off-season.

Atlanta Braves

The following Braves are eligible for free agency: Julio Franco, Tom Glavine, Chris Hammond, Darren Holmes, Keith Lockhart, Albie Lopez, Greg Maddux, Dave Martinez, Mike Remlinger, and B.J. Surhoff.

Atlanta reportedly low-balled Glavine with an offer of around $8M for one-year, which strongly indicates that the Braves will not put forth much effort in re-signing both Glavine and Maddux, though one of the two could easily return. Atlanta will undoubtedly offer arbitration to both aces. Of the remaining players, I expect them at least to offer arbitration to Julio Franco, Chris Hammond, Darren Holmes, and Mike Remlinger, who all could re-sign with the Braves. Albie Lopez, Dave Martinez, and Surhoff will almost certainly depart. Surhoff may retire, while the other two could land with a number of teams.

The Braves may try to address their first base weakness through free agency. Fred McGriff is a potential target, although due to his decline with age, they might be benefit more from retaining the Matt and Julio Franco combo. A probable non-tended or inexpensive trade acquisition like Travis Lee or Erubiel Durazo also seems like a good target for Atlanta.


Florida Marlins

The following Marlins are eligible for free agency: Graeme Lloyd, Tim Raines, and Julian Tavarez.

Tim Raines will retire rather than seek new employment. Many teams will be interested in adding a quality lefty reliever, so Lloyd should have plenty of options. However, Tavarez may have difficulty finding a major league position after his 2002 season.

Florida's off-season will likely involve more than one trade. The Marlins will move at least one of their arbitration-eligible players, as although they plan to allow the payroll to increase somewhat in 2003, the organization has a number of players who have earned considerable raises.

Charles Johnson and Preston Wilson are the two players they most want to deal, but Johnson's no-trade clause will likely keep him in Florida. Mike Lowell seems to have drawn the short straw among the infielders despite the fact that the Marlins possess promising first base talent in the minors with Adrian Gonzalez and Jason Stokes, making a trade of Derrek Lee more sensible. Florida lacks an adequate replacement at third unless they move Andy Fox or Kevin Millar to the hot corner, so they'll likely seek a younger third baseman in any trade of Lowell.


Montreal Expos

The following Expos are eligible for free agency: Wil Cordero, Andres Galarraga, and Troy O'Leary.

Galarraga will likely retire, while Cordero and O'Leary will likely be forced to earn jobs as non-roster invitees in Spring Training. Bench players are easily replaced, but Montreal will need to look for a first baseman, as they don't have any mature candidates within the organization. Due to the stadium turf, the Expos should likely target a younger player rather than someone like Fred McGriff or Julio Franco. Tony Clark at least appears past his injury problems, so he could be a good candidate for the position. However, they might find more of what they need on the trade market rather than in free agency. Erubiel Durazo, Travis Lee, Nick Johnson, and Jeremy Giambi would all work to varying extents and should likely be available in trade. However rumors indicate Montreal won't necessarily play all of their home games in Montreal, which makes it difficult for GM Omar Minaya to tailor his team to his ballpark.

Montreal also lacks one starting outfielder, and while Brad Wilkerson is capable of playing center, left, and even first base, he'll likely remain in centerfield. Unless Minaya grows comfortable with giving Endy Chavez an extended opportunity in left, expect Montreal to either rush a youngster to the majors or look for more inexpensive veterans like Cordero and O'Leary.


New York Mets

The following Mets are eligible for free agency: Edgardo Alfonzo, Jeff D'Amico, Mark Guthrie, Steve Reed, Tony Tarasco, Steve Trachsel, and John Valentin.

New York will offer arbitration to Alfonzo, but I don't expect him to return after the Mets rejected his early overtures at completing a deal. He should be a hot commodity on the market, especially since he's capable of fielding all infield positions. Guthrie, Reed, and Trachsel will likely all be offered arbitration, however Guthrie is the only one I think may return to the team in 2003.

The Mets could move in any one of a huge variety of different directions, so it's very difficult to predict what path they'll take. Steve Phillips needs to spend considerable time on the phone this off-season attempting to rid the team of several poor contract decisions as he tries to keep the team competitive while beginning to integrate a couple top prospects like Aaron Heilman and Jose Reyes.


Philadelphia Phillies

The following Phillies are eligible for free agency: Terry Adams, Ricky Bottalico, Doug Glanville, Dave Hollins, Robert Person, Dan Plesac, Todd Pratt, and Mike Timlin.

Plesac's retiring and Hollins may consider it after a season lost to spider bites. Philly may offer arbitration to Pratt and Timlin, but they will probably consider the others too likely to accept. Adams is the only other pitcher with a decent chance of returning, sice even though they declined to exercise his option for 2003, Philly reportedly still wants him back in middle relief.

The Phillies have the beginnings of a good young rotation, but they need to pick up a free agent to fill out the staff and eat innings. Actually, Philadelphia is without a standout ace to lead the staff, so they should probably seriously woo Greg Maddux as a veteran to lead the young pitchers.

However, they appear primarily interested in upgrading at first base, where they don't like Travis Lee and aren't satisfied with Jeremy Giambi. Jim Thome is their primary free agent target, but they may also pursue trades for Derrek Lee, Nick Johnson, and/or Steve Cox. Likewise, the Phillies could choose to pursue Alfonzo or Lowell to play third base, as Placido Polanco possesses the flexibility to move to a number of positions.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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