Fans in numerous baseball cities mulled over trades that might bring Scott Rolen to their team this season, calculating where their city ranked in closeness to Rolen's Indiana hometown. The Cardinals always rated highly on the list of potential new homes for Rolen due to their proximity to Indiana, as well as their ability to compete. St. Louis emerged as the front-runner to pick up the third baseman in the last month, and on Monday they closed the deal, sending LHP Bud Smith, RHP Mike Timlin, and UT-R Placido Polanco to Philadelphia for 3B-R Rolen as well as RHP Doug Nickle and cash.

Last November, shortly after Rolen announced he didn't intend to re-sign with the Phillies before testing free agency, I covered trade possibilities, suggesting that a St. Louis trade might involve either Matt Morris or Bud Smith, in addition to Placido Polanco, and a third marginal player or a low prospect. While the deal has somewhat less value with Smith's recent decline, my proposal came fairly close to the trade the two teams actually completed.

However eight months later, I was a bit surprised at the final structure of the deal as the Phillies have been quite insistent that they wanted a high level of talent in return for Rolen. Bud Smith still possesses considerable potential, but his recent struggles have certainly added question marks to the extent of his upside, equal to those associated with minor league players.

The Cardinals drafted Smith out of Los Angeles Harbor Junior College in the fourth round of the 1998 draft. The left-hander quickly worked his way through St. Louis' minor league system and made a very impressive debut last season. Unfortunately, he's suffered from severe control problem this year, posting a 22:22 K:BB in 48 IP with 67 H and 4 HR allowed over 10 starts in 11 appearances this season.

St. Louis made a poor decision in not breaking camp with him on the roster, and though there could easily be other factors involved in his ineffectiveness, he hasn't been the same since they began doubting him. Smith also suffered a strained shoulder earlier this season. While he could blossom for Philadelphia, the Cardinals seemed to have poisoned St. Louis for him, so including Smith in the trade made sense for both parties.

I believe the Phillies intend to leave Smith in the minors for a time before recalling him, which may be a good idea as it should allow Smith to compose himself before facing historically vindictive Philadelphia fans, who likely won't be forgiving of any mistakes from the supposed bounty for their long-time star. If he can reclaim the skills of his debut season, the 22-year-old should be a very nice addition to the Phillies rotation next year, making him a sensible gamble for Philadelphia.

Although Mike Timlin has considerably more value than Terry Mulholland, he was included in this trade as Mulholland was included in the Paul Shuey trade in order to balance out the salary differences. Timlin, who will be a free agent after the season, is scheduled to make $5M this season and Polanco is making $1.75M, so their salaries quickly begin to approach Rolen's $8.6M for this season. The cash St. Louis received balances out a portion of the remainder of the difference, though there are some reports that if the Cardinals are able to sign Rolen to a long-term deal, St. Louis will cover his salary for the rest of the season. While the parties did not take the time to negotiate a contract extension for the pending free agent at this time, Rolen has already announced that he is very open to working something out before he becomes a free agent this off-season.

Polanco reached arbitration for the first time last season, so the Phillies should have control over him through 2004. Both of Philadelphia's third base prospects, Chase Utley and Travis Chapman, should be ready to play by that time, or they will have had time to find an alternative. If either prospect is ready prior to Polanco's departure, as is likely, or if they find someone else they want to sign, Polanco could move to second base and usurp Marlon Anderson. Utley's also a converted second baseman, so he could perhaps return to the second. At the very least, Polanco still offers flexibility off the bench.. Considering that they didn't trade Rolen because they were rebuilding, but because they didn't think he would re-sign with the team, Polanco is a good player for them to add.

Rolen will take over at third base for the Cardinals, allowing Albert Pujols to stay in left field where he is more comfortable defensively. When discussing Rolen, I believe it is mandatory to mention that he possesses gold glove defense. However while his bat hasn't been at its best levels this season, it is more important to St. Louis than his defensive skills. At the time of the trade he had 97 H, 21 2B, 4 3B, and 17 HR with a 52:68 BB:K and 5/7 SB% in 375 AB for a .259 BA, 358 OBP, and .472 SLF.

For the moment, Cardinals' manager Tony LaRussa appears to favor hitting Rolen fifth with Tino Martinez sliding down to the sixth hole. J.D. Drew will hit second when he's in the lineup, though we may see some changes when Drew takes extra rest days due to his knee problem, particularly against left-hander starters. Drew's day-to-day status gave the Cardinals additional incentive to acquire another bat.

Cardinals GM Walt Jockety once again procured a key piece for his team at a very nice price and even managed to pick up a minor leaguer in the trade rather than deplete their farm system. Anaheim drafted Nickle out of the University of California in the 13th round of the 1997 draft. Philly acquired Nickle as the player to be named later for Gregg Jefferies in September of 1998. He worked his way steadily up through the minors, switching from starting to relief in 1999. Nickle received brief major promotions in both 2000 and 2001, following full seasons at AA and AAA respectively. The 27-year-old has been closing at AAA for the Phillies, but his skills seem weak for a pitcher who's already made the move to relief. Last year at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in the International League, Nickle only posted a 60:37 K:BB in 86 IP with 62 H and 2 HR allowed. While the hits and homers are admittedly at nice levels, his dominance and control are both weak. His BB/9 is down somewhat this season but his K/9 remains around 6, which is acceptable for a starter but not a reliever.

Nickle may be able to step in as a middle reliever in the next year, but unless he can regain the dominance levels he displayed at AA and the lower levels, he'll be a borderline major leaguer at best. However considering a three-for-one would have been more than fair, there's no harm in the Cardinals picking up an extra man.