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July
12th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
Cliffhanger

by Jessica Polko

Florida made trades with both Cincinnati and Montreal yesterday. The first trade with the Reds set up the trade with the Expos. Cincinnati sent OF Juan Encarnacion, IF Wilton Guerrero, and LHP Ryan Snare to Florida for RHP Ryan Dempster. The Marlins then traded Guerrero, OF Cliff Floyd, RHP Claudio Vargas, and cash to the Expos for RHP Carl Pavano, LHP Graeme Lloyd, RHP Justin Wayne, IF Mike Mordecai and a PTBNL.

While Montreal might have wanted to reunite the Guerrero brothers, the two deals really stand alone, so I'll discuss first the Dempster trade and then the Floyd deal. I questioned the acquisition of Encarnacion and Luis Pineda for Dmitri Young this off-season, but given the use of Encarnacion in this deal, I think Jim Bowden has fully redeemed himself.

The 25-year-old Dempster has a solid 7.4 K/9 IP and allows just over a hit per inning. His G-F has dropped this season but he maintains a career HR/9 of a little over one. Dempster's BB/9 are the sour note in the package. He allows almost 4.7 BB/9, which in turn drives down his K:BB, bringing it to a little less than 1.6 for his career. He'll need to improve his control before he becomes an unquestioned ace, but his age and other skills make him a premium acquisition for the Reds. Cincinnati will also need to be careful of his arm; Florida definitely wasn't, running him out into the late innings with high pitch counts.

Texas originally drafted Dempster out of Elphinstone High School in Gibbons, British Columbia, in the third round of the 1995 draft. Florida acquired Dempster and a PTBNL (Rick Helling) from the Rangers for John Burkett in 1996. He reached the majors in 1998, established himself in the Marlins' rotation in 1999, and has anchored their rotation for the last three seasons.

Dempster immediately steps in as the Reds' ace. Cincinnati has struggled to find a fifth starter all season, and this move improves the entire rotation by bumping everyone currently in the rotation down a slot. They also need to win going into a new stadium next season and this move greatly assists them in that area. With Houston and the Cubs struggling, the Reds easily have the division in their sites, particularly with the uncertain state of the Cardinals.

Wilton Guerrero has never had his brother's power or even Vlad's plate discipline. The 27-year-old has a bit of speed but barely earns his major league roster spot, although he can handle most positions defensively.

Encarnacion has played well for the team this season, but despite trading Ben Broussard, the Reds still have an excess of outfield talent. They don't need to hold onto Encarnacion to protect against further injury problems with Ken Griffey, Jr., as with Reggie Taylor and Russell Branyan, they still have plenty of bench talent. Branyan had been challenging Aaron Boone for playing time at third, but with more at-bats available in the outfield, Boone's role likely won't shrink as much as it otherwise could have.

Cincinnati called up Raul Gonzalez to fill the open roster spot. The 28-year-old has demonstrated good plate discipline in the minors with a bit of power and speed, so he should be a perfectly acceptable fifth outfielder. Austin Kearns should receive most of Encarnacion's playing time in the long run, though Taylor also will likely see quite a bit until Griffey returns from the disabled list.

The Reds most recently placed Griffey on the DL in late June. He was expected back after the All-Star break, however his hamstring was only at about 80%, and they really don't want to increase the risk of him aggravating the injury again. Griffey's now expected back at the end of next week when the Reds return home from an extended stretch of road games.

Florida received a high-end left-handed starting prospect in the 23-year-old Snare. Cincinnati drafted Snare out of the University of North Carolina in the second round of the 2000 draft. He spent last season at A Dayton in the Midwest League, displaying excellent skills across the board. Snare began this season at Stockton in the A+ California League. The Reds promoted him to their AA Southern League team at Chattanooga after he compiled an 81:18 K:BB in 82 IP with 74 H and 4 HR allowed. He's only had a chance to pitch 6 innings since his promotion. The Marlins should definitely leave him in AA for the rest of this season, but provided he maintains the majority of his current skills when he reaches the higher levels, he should be ready for the majors after a half season in AAA next year.

I'm still not certain the Marlins received enough for Dempster, but after looking at Snare's upside and Dempster's walk problems, I like the deal much more than when I first read of it. A.J. Burnett's already a better pitcher than Dempster, and Josh Beckett should quickly surpass Burnett as soon as he's past his blister problems. Florida has a few other pitching prospects in the pipeline and should be able to cheaply fill out the remaining rotation spot.

If they feel that the uncertainty in their bullpen and the bottom of their rotation this season prevent them from making a playoff run, this deal brings in inexpensive players able to help them when they're ready to win for a pitcher who will likely grow overpriced in the very near future. However, I would have preferred they receive a bit more to compensate for the time between Dempster's current value and Snare's future value.

Another aspect of these trades that has been widely pointed out is that the Marlins were potentially in a better position than the Expos to go for the wildcard this season. On the other hand, due to their unusual franchise position, the Expos have more incentive to play for this season, while Florida's probably better off stockpiling for an extended run of success, playoff berths, and competition for the Series.

I had more to say about the Cincinnati side of this trade than I expected, so I'm going to leave off for today and continue tomorrow with discussion of the deal between the Expos and Marlins.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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