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June
28th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
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Canadian Colon

by Jessica Polko

Montreal pulled out the prospects to fund a run for the playoffs on Thursday, while Cleveland took the next step in what they hope is a quick and efficient rebuilding process that will have them back in contention by 2004. The Indians sent RHP Bartolo Colon, RHP Tim Drew, and cash considerations to the Expos for SS Brandon Phillips, OF Grady Sizemore, LHP Cliff Lee, and 1B Lee Stevens.

Colon suspected early in the season that the Indians would deal him to a contending team this season. He was one of the pitchers who underwent an age adjustment over the off-season, and though that doesn't affect his current dominance, it likely made it easier for the Indians to leave him out of their future plans. He's just entered his prime and his workload looks much better on a 28-year-old than a 26-year-old, but he'll also decline two years sooner.

The Expos aren't worried about his future. They want to take advantage of a pitcher who is currently one of the best in the majors. In 116.1 IP this season, Colon has a 75:31 K:BB with 104 and 11 HR allowed. Some concern over Colon's health arose earlier this week, when he felt a twinge in his right side. Cleveland discussed skipping his next start due to soreness, but that could have just been covering for replacing him in the rotation after the impending trade. Regardless, he won't be able to start today due to travel involved in switching teams. Montreal expects to insert him into the rotation as their ace early next week.

Cleveland drafted Tim Drew, brother of J.D. Drew, out of Georgia's Lowndes High School in the first round of the 1997 draft. He progressed steadily through the minors, but then in 2000 and again in 2001, the Indians rushed him to the majors when he really needed significant time in both AA and AAA. Consequently, he struggled against the higher level of competition. The Indians slowed their expectations this season and sent him to AAA Buffalo in the International League to begin the season. In 96.1 IP at Buffalo, he has a 43:23 K:BB with 96 H and 6 HR allowed. I'm quite concerned at the drop in his dominance this season, as while control problems can be corrected, it's more difficult to dramatically increase K totals without a move to relief. He shouldn't be called up this season on any team, especially one contending for the playoffs, so while he could be a nice steal if he turns things around, he can't be considered a potential spot starter.

Phillips was Montreal's big prospect card. I've felt that he's been burning a hole in Omar Minaya's pocket since Minaya took over the GM position, but I have to say that Minaya picked the right deal in which to part with Phillips. The Expos drafted Phillips out of Georgia's Redan High School in the second round of the 1999 draft. He spent the remainder of that season in the Gulf Coast League before Montreal promoted him to A Cape Fear in the South Atlantic League the next season.

Phillips split last season between A+ Jupiter in the Florida State League and AA Harrisburg in the Eastern League. He has moderate power potential, good speed, and demonstrated quality plate discipline in A+. He returned to Harrisburg to start this season but was promoted to AAA Ottawa in the International League after 245 AB in which he hit .257 with a .380 OBP and .506 SLG on 80 H, 13 2B, 2 3B, and 9 HR with a 16:33 BB:K and 6/9 SB%. He's gone 9 for 35 at AAA with 4 2B, 1 HR and a 2:6 BB:K.

I have some concerns about his strike zone judgment if he isn't left in AAA for a full season beyond this year. However, he's still a very good prospect, who the Indians can afford to give some extra time, as Omar Vizquel is signed through 2004 with a mutual option for 2005. Phillips turns 21 today. We've seen comparisons of him to Barry Larkin in the past, but Miguel Tejada might be a better likeness since Phillips lacks Larkin's speed and ingrained plate discipline.

Montreal selected Sizemore out of Washington's Cascade High School in the third round of the 2000 draft. The left-handed outfielder has demonstrated good strike zone judgment in the low minors and has speed potential and power potential. He went to the Gulf Coast League after signing in 2000 and then spent last season at A Clinton in the Midwest League. The Expos sent him to Brevard County in the A+ Florida State League this season, where he's hitting .258 with a .351 OBP and .348 SLG in 256 AB on 66 H, 15 2B, and 4 3B with a 36:41 BB:K and 9/18 SB%.

As he's only 19, I think that the best route for his development would be to finish this season in A+, spend next season in AA, and 2004 in AAA. He would then be ready to start in the majors in 2005. However, he could likely survive a faster track as long as he receives at least one season in the high minors. Properly developed, he's a very exciting prospect, perhaps even a slightly slower Kenny Lofton, although more likely between Lofton and Darren Bragg.

The final prospect in the trade also came out of the 2000 draft. Montreal drafted Clifton Lee in the fourth round out of the University of Arkansas. The left-handed starter has shown very good skills in the minors and particularly impressive dominance. He went straight to A Cape Fear out of the draft and spent last season at A+ Jupiter. The 23-year-old compiled a 105:23 K:BB in 86.1 IP at AA Harrisburg this season with 61 H and 12 HR allowed. He'll need to reduce those dingers, but the rest of his skills continue to astonish. Provided he does well in a full season of AAA next year, Lee should be ready to start in the majors in 2004, and possibly even during the 2003 season.

Stevens was included in the trade as a salary dump for the Expos and likely won't have a large roll on the Indians. His plate discipline, like many of the Expos, has improved this season, but his production has dropped below its already low levels. In 205 AB, he has a 39:57 BB:K and 1 SB with 39 H, 6 2B, 1 3B, and 10 HR for a .190 BA, .318 OBP, and .376 SLG. However, he does provide them with additional options if they trade Jim Thome. Cleveland also included $925K in the deal to cover the difference between the contracts so that this was a payroll-neutral trade for Montreal.

I'm very impressed with both sides of this trade. Cleveland did a great job of collecting quality prospects that should mature in the next few seasons, while Montreal acquired a vital key to playoff contention. Hopefully, I can go into more detail tomorrow as to the future impact of this trade on the two franchises tomorrow.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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