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April
28th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
Lowe's Self-Improvement

by Jessica Polko

Before I begin today's article, we apologize to those of you who were unable to read yesterday's columns until mid-day today. While the articles were written, our ability to upload changes to the site yesterday was unexpectedly interrupted. The company on whose servers we host the site did not fix the problem until shortly before we posted today.


Derek Lowe pitched the season's first no-hitter on Saturday. Lowe accomplished the feat at Fenway Park against the Devil Rays. Yesterday was the first time in their short history that Tampa Bay was on either side of a complete game no-hitter.

Lowe completed his impressive performance with just 97 pitches. He struck out six, including three straight in the sixth. Jason Tyner struck out swinging twice, Randy Winn went down on strikes twice, once looking and once swinging, and Felix Escalona and Russ Johnson both struck out once apiece looking. Lowe threw sixty-six pitches for strikes.

Tyner, Steve Cox, Toby Hall, Ben Grieve, and Brent Abernathy all grounded out twice. Greg Vaughn and Escalona each had one groundout. Vaughn fouled out in both his other at-bats. Winn, Cox, Escalona and Jason Conti all had a flyout. Johnson also popped out.

Due to walking Abernathy at the top of the 3rd inning, Lowe faced 28 batters rather than the minimum of 27. However, Abernathy was not the only Tampa Bay player on the bases during the game, as immediately after he walked, Johnson grounded into a fielder's choice to Rey Sanchez, Abernathy was out but at second but Johnson was safe at first. Johnson then made it to second on an Escalona groundout but was stranded there.

Catcher Jason Varitek contributed to Lowe's success by calling a very good game, in which he reported that Lowe only asked for a different pitch once. A Sportsticker article quoted Varitek as saying that Lowe "didn't have as good a cutter today that he has had in the past, but he had a great curveball and great command of his changeup, to go with his sinker on both sides of the plate." This is the second no-hitter Varitek has caught, as he was also behind the plate for Hideo Nomo's last April.

Lowe and Varitek have a long relationship as pitcher and catcher, as their careers have been connected in various ways for several years. Both were originally drafted by the Mariners, Lowe in the 8th round of the 1991 draft and Varitek with the 14th overall pick of the 1994 draft. They played on the same minor league team for parts of the 1995-1997 seasons before Seattle traded them together in trade to Boston for RHP Heathcliff Slocumb at the 1997 deadline. They've been together on the Red Sox whenever both were healthy from 1998 to the present.

Lowe began his career as a starter but the Red Sox moved him to relief mid-way through the 1998 season. When Boston lost closer Tom Gordon to arm problems in 1999, Lowe moved to full-time work out of the pen. He shared the closing duties with Tim Wakefield, Rich Garces, and Rod Beck in 1999 but claimed the job for himself in 2000. However he struggled to hold onto the role last season and was bumped at various times to middle relief. Ultimately, Ugueth Urbina, acquired at the deadline from Montreal, took over as the closer. Then late in the year, when the Red Sox needed a starter after losing Pedro Martinez, Lowe moved to the rotation.

He's never been a strikeout pitcher; most of his outs come from groundballs. He has yet to allow a home run this season and given his ground ball tendencies, you wouldn't expect him to allow many longballs over the course of the season. Over the last four years, he's compiled G-F ratios of 4.58, 3.17, 3.45, and then 3.57 in 2001. This year Lowe has a G-F of 1.96, which is still very good but admittedly a decline from his recent numbers when Lowe was pitching primarily in relief. His G-F was limited to 1.75 during 1997 when he pitched primarily as a starter, and therefore, it is plausible that his ratio will hold closer to its current levels rather than the extremes of the past few years.

In his first run as a starter, he tended to allow too many baserunners on both hits and walks. Those numbers improved when he moved to the pen, but we were doubtful as to whether he would maintain the improvement when he transitioned back into the rotation this season.

Lowe knew at the end of the 2001 season that he would likely return to the rotation this year, so he conditioned in the off-season to prepare for his new role. He reportedly added 25 lbs of muscle to his 6'6" frame this off-season, though his weight only shows a 5 lb increase from last season, so he must have shed 20 lbs of fat while he was at it. As the closer, he limited the use of his change-up, so he also worked to refine that pitch, as well as to gain confidence in his cut fastball.

I am still somewhat concerned over his ability to hold up late in the season, as he will likely pitch more innings this year than he has in any other season of his career provided he continues to excel. If he continues to consistently last deep into games as he has this spring, there's a risk that the sudden increase in his workload could cause future arm problems. However, despite averaging seven innings over his first five starts, Lowe's high pitch count for the season is the 97 pitches from yesterday. He'll also be 29 on June 1st, so he doesn't have the same risks as younger pitchers with less mature arms.

Provided fatigue doesn't set in later in the season, Lowe is on pace for 224 IP with 146:57 K:BB and 95 H. His successful transition is a big plus for the Red Sox, who have been looking for a quality #2 starter for some time.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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