April 1st 2002 |
Out of the Frying Pan |
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by Jessica Polko Today we will be reviewing Rotohelp's picks for National League season-end standings, as well as our predicted World Series Winner. We'd planed to present all of our predictions for the playoffs, the World Series and end-of-year awards yesterday, but after a grueling week of team reviews we decided to stretch this out over the first few days of the season. You can view our AL picks in yesterday's article and tomorrow we will have our forecast for the end-of-year awards.
National League East 2. Philadelphia Phillies, 86-76: Most of the offense should rebound from down years with the change in hitting coaches, while the pitching should be pretty similar to last season. The resolution of the Scott Rolen situation will likely determine if this club finishes five games below this prediction or in the middle of the Wild Card race. 3. Florida Marlins, 80-82: An extremely promising pitching staff should have a good year but will probably find themselves short on run support with an offense made up of a few good but mostly average players. They should be very wary about dealing any more veterans because there aren't many young position players close to the majors, necessitating the continued presence of pending free agent Cliff Floyd. 4. New York Mets, 76-86: They have little depth behind their key offensive players and many of them are injury-prone. All the top players on this team are past their primes and unlikely to repeat career-best seasons. While they have some depth to support their starting rotation, their bullpen is relatively shallow. 5. Montreal Expos, 67-95: While I'd like to root for the underdog, they're already having injury troubles with key offensive players and a few pitchers. They also start the season with little internal infrastructure thanks to the pillaging by Loria and his cronies.
2. Houston Astros, 89-73: A good offense has been infused with some quality youth and is supported by a very good bench. The pitching staff has a lot of upside with promising young starters and a solid bullpen headed by one of the top closers in the game. 3. Chicago Cubs, 88-74: Although I'm not certain Alou will play enough to add much to the team, Roosevelt Brown and Corey Patterson could both have very good years. Todd Hundley should rebound and the rest of the offense will be at least comparable to last season. A promising rotation headed by experience and filled out with promising youth is supported by what should be a good bullpen. While they come in third on their own merits, they could steal both 2nd in the division and the wildcard from the Astros if age affects the Houston offense. 4. Cincinnati Reds, 73-89: Griffey should have a better season, Dunn should provide a nice follow-up to his rookie year, and the rest of the offense should be solid. The problem will be with their rotation as they don't have a dominant pair of pitchers to lead them and while not particularly poor, the bullpen lacks depth. 5. Milwaukee Brewers, 71-91: The club is below average at several positions and their pitching is plagued with injuries. There is some upside here but tremendous downside. 6. Pittsburgh Pirates, 59-73: If the Cardinals are strong across the board, the Pirates are similarly weak at almost every position. Their top pitching "prospects" possess much weaker skills than those of the other teams in the division, and there's also little minor league depth behind stars like Brian Giles and Aramis Ramirez.
2. San Francisco Giants, 86-76: The Giants will be neck and neck in the division and will take advantage of any injuries to the Diamondbacks. There have few glaring weaknesses in either their offense or pitching, and boast the deepest bullpen in the league. 3. Los Angeles Dodgers, 83-79: Jordan will need to be healthy and productive to counter the loss of Sheffield. They lack the offensive upside of the other teams and their rotation is very susceptible to injury. The Dodgers could easily fall from this position given the likely horrendous OBP from half of their starting lineup, including their 1-2 hitters. 4. San Diego Padres, 81-81: This team is on their way up but they probably need another year for their pitching staff to gain some additional experience. If they remain competitive throughout the first half, they have the positional depth to deal top hitting prospects for help this season, and could potentially make a run at a playoff spot. 5. Colorado Rockies, 78-84: The Rockies have some talent in the bottom of their rotation, but the top starters have struggled and they remain very vulnerable to injuries to their top offensive players. Colorado was the unluckiest team in the majors last year, finishing a full 10 games under their Pythagorean Wins, and they should at least recoup the difference this season.
Arizona at St. Louis: St. Louis is toppled by Randy and Schilling, who are virtually an unbeatable combo in a short series. Houston at Arizona: The Houston offense out hits an injury-depleted Arizona team that just doesn't have the offense to provide their aces with the necessary run support against the deepest bench in the league. 2002 National League Champions: Houston Astros
2002 World Champion: Oakland Athletics
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opinions to
jess@rotohelp.com. |
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