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April
1st
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
2002 National League Predictions

by Jessica Polko

Today we will be reviewing Rotohelp's picks for National League season-end standings, as well as our predicted World Series Winner. We'd planed to present all of our predictions for the playoffs, the World Series and end-of-year awards yesterday, but after a grueling week of team reviews we decided to stretch this out over the first few days of the season. You can view our AL picks in yesterday's article and tomorrow we will have our forecast for the end-of-year awards.

National League East
1. Atlanta Braves, 90-72: Gary Sheffield should provide an improvement over Brian Jordan, and while I don't necessarily agree with the acquisition of Vinny Castilla, he's probably a slight improvement over Surhoff. Combined with a full season of Furcal, their offense has been nicely upgraded. Maddux and Glavine should continue to perform at high levels, Millwood should see an improvement over last season, and Albie Lopez and Jason Marquis should nicely fill out the bottom end of the rotation. Smoltz could be quite dominating as the closer and their middle relief should remain solid.

2. Philadelphia Phillies, 86-76: Most of the offense should rebound from down years with the change in hitting coaches, while the pitching should be pretty similar to last season. The resolution of the Scott Rolen situation will likely determine if this club finishes five games below this prediction or in the middle of the Wild Card race.

3. Florida Marlins, 80-82: An extremely promising pitching staff should have a good year but will probably find themselves short on run support with an offense made up of a few good but mostly average players. They should be very wary about dealing any more veterans because there aren't many young position players close to the majors, necessitating the continued presence of pending free agent Cliff Floyd.

4. New York Mets, 76-86: They have little depth behind their key offensive players and many of them are injury-prone. All the top players on this team are past their primes and unlikely to repeat career-best seasons. While they have some depth to support their starting rotation, their bullpen is relatively shallow.

5. Montreal Expos, 67-95: While I'd like to root for the underdog, they're already having injury troubles with key offensive players and a few pitchers. They also start the season with little internal infrastructure thanks to the pillaging by Loria and his cronies.


National League Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals, 95-67: This club is strong in every area. They have a deep bullpen, a very solid rotation that will be even stronger if Bud Smith is called up sooner rather than later, and a good offense. While they could have some problems if their key offensive players are injured, they should sail to the playoffs.

2. Houston Astros, 89-73: A good offense has been infused with some quality youth and is supported by a very good bench. The pitching staff has a lot of upside with promising young starters and a solid bullpen headed by one of the top closers in the game.

3. Chicago Cubs, 88-74: Although I'm not certain Alou will play enough to add much to the team, Roosevelt Brown and Corey Patterson could both have very good years. Todd Hundley should rebound and the rest of the offense will be at least comparable to last season. A promising rotation headed by experience and filled out with promising youth is supported by what should be a good bullpen. While they come in third on their own merits, they could steal both 2nd in the division and the wildcard from the Astros if age affects the Houston offense.

4. Cincinnati Reds, 73-89: Griffey should have a better season, Dunn should provide a nice follow-up to his rookie year, and the rest of the offense should be solid. The problem will be with their rotation as they don't have a dominant pair of pitchers to lead them and while not particularly poor, the bullpen lacks depth.

5. Milwaukee Brewers, 71-91: The club is below average at several positions and their pitching is plagued with injuries. There is some upside here but tremendous downside.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates, 59-73: If the Cardinals are strong across the board, the Pirates are similarly weak at almost every position. Their top pitching "prospects" possess much weaker skills than those of the other teams in the division, and there's also little minor league depth behind stars like Brian Giles and Aramis Ramirez.


National League West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks, 88-74 With Randy and Schilling, you don't need many runs to win ballgames. As long as they don't fall victim to many more injuries, they should be able to successfully defend their division title.

2. San Francisco Giants, 86-76: The Giants will be neck and neck in the division and will take advantage of any injuries to the Diamondbacks. There have few glaring weaknesses in either their offense or pitching, and boast the deepest bullpen in the league.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers, 83-79: Jordan will need to be healthy and productive to counter the loss of Sheffield. They lack the offensive upside of the other teams and their rotation is very susceptible to injury. The Dodgers could easily fall from this position given the likely horrendous OBP from half of their starting lineup, including their 1-2 hitters.

4. San Diego Padres, 81-81: This team is on their way up but they probably need another year for their pitching staff to gain some additional experience. If they remain competitive throughout the first half, they have the positional depth to deal top hitting prospects for help this season, and could potentially make a run at a playoff spot.

5. Colorado Rockies, 78-84: The Rockies have some talent in the bottom of their rotation, but the top starters have struggled and they remain very vulnerable to injuries to their top offensive players. Colorado was the unluckiest team in the majors last year, finishing a full 10 games under their Pythagorean Wins, and they should at least recoup the difference this season.


Houston at Atlanta: Houston needs everyone healthy at this point, but provided Bagwell and Biggio have survived the hazards of old age, they finally make it past the Braves on the strength of the young arms.

Arizona at St. Louis: St. Louis is toppled by Randy and Schilling, who are virtually an unbeatable combo in a short series.

Houston at Arizona: The Houston offense out hits an injury-depleted Arizona team that just doesn't have the offense to provide their aces with the necessary run support against the deepest bench in the league.

2002 National League Champions: Houston Astros


Houston at Oakland: While the series should be close, the on-base skills of the Oakland offense will force mistake pitches by young Houston pitchers comparatively unaccustomed to post-season action. The Athletics also don't have two lineup slots devoted exclusively to defensive players while the Astros also lack a great DH option. Even great post-seasons by Bagwell and Biggio won't allow the Astros to win their first World Series as the depth of the Oakland roster proves to be an insurmountable challenge.

2002 World Champion: Oakland Athletics

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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