March 23rd 2002 |
Out of the Frying Pan |
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by Jessica Polko Jeff Conine signed a two-year, $9.25M contract extension on Friday. Under his old deal, he will receive $3.5M in 2002. The extension will stretch his contract through 2004 at $4.5M each year and includes a club option of an undisclosed amount with a $250K buyout. While Conine certainly has a number of good qualities, this extension is not a move I can support. Conine will be 36 in June, so this contract will take him through his 39th birthday and possibly his 40th if they pick up the option. He has been relatively untroubled by injuries in the past few years but health troubles tend to increase with age. Last year was a definite improvement over his two previous seasons. He appears to have traded a bit of his power for an increase in plate discipline. Conine also saw a career high in stolen bases, though that can likely be attributed solely to his manager, as his success rate was limited to 60%. I don't know whether Hargrove will repeat the experiment again in 2002, given its limited success. His plate discipline advances appear to be the end result of a few years of gradual improvement, so unless he suddenly becomes frustrated with his power numbers I would expect his batting average and on-base percentage to remain elevated. However, the power loss is likely tied to his age as much as his increased selectivity, so it will probably continue to slide. Ultimately my complaints boil down to a belief that his age will stand in the way of him sustaining a level of production worthy of his salary for the duration of the deal. Regardless of his recent performance, I see no reason for the Orioles to commit themselves to a multi-year contract. I would much prefer they risk losing him to free agency than risk carrying another overpaid underachieving veteran on their roster for the next three years. There is very little upside and a great deal of downside involved in this contract, and if Baltimore is to have any luck with a rebuilding effort, they can't afford to sacrifice money and roster spots to fan favorites past their prime.
I'm actually less concerned about this contract given his recent age increase than I would have been before he gained three years of maturity. A 28-year-old arm should be able to handle 210 IP a lot better than a 25-year-old arm. Given the decreased likelihood of injury troubles, the Angels likely did well to lock Ortiz up through his prime. The conditions of the contract are a bit odd, but Anaheim appears to have secured a bargain if Ortiz misses out on the super-2 status that would grant him arbitration after this season, as well as a fair price even if he makes it. While his upside isn't what it used to be, Ortiz is a good pitcher and the Angels have secured him through his prime. By agreeing to a multi-year deal they have bought out all of his arbitration years, so they will not have concern themselves with potentially high arbitration awards. Following the final year of the contract, they should be able to let him leave and replace him with someone with more potential. Meanwhile, his salary is not prohibitive to a possible trade if some of their younger prospects excel. Ortiz should be pleased that he was able to attain this level of financial security when he will probably only be Anaheim's fifth starter this season.
He's spent the last two seasons at AA and probably shouldn't yet be advanced to AAA as his plate discipline still requires considerable work. However, he has shown recent power potential and continued to demonstrate good fielding skills. Cincinnati has outfielders coming out of their ears, so it's unsurprising that they attempted to slip him through waivers as he's certainly not prepared for the majors. Meanwhile, Milwaukee's minor league system is so shallow that Melian may become their second best prospect. I am concerned that the Brewers may try to rush him to the majors while neglecting to provide him with the instruction he needs. If he does manage to capitalize on a substantial portion of his upside, he should be a very good pick-up for the organization. There is really very little downside and a great deal of upside to this acquisition, since they were able to add him without any depletion of their already limited roster talent.
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I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read
the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your
opinions to
jess@rotohelp.com. |
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