Aramis Ramirez signed a 3-year, $9.5 million contract on Thursday. Under the new contract, the Pirates will pay him $500K in 2002, $3M in 2003, and $6M in 2004. The first year salary is significantly lower than the later two seasons because Ramirez would not have been eligible for arbitration until after this season. This contract will buy out two years of his arbitration time and leave Pittsburgh with one year of arbitration left before he becomes a free agent following the 2005 season.

While the Pirates would probably have been justified in signing him to a much longer contract, I like the length they chose. If the contract were a year longer, they would have been pushing up against his free agency without any cushion for negotiations. They could have chosen to go so far as to buy out a year or two of his free agency, but then you start talking five or six years in which a lot can happen, so the risk vastly increases.

As long as he can maintain the kind of numbers he posted last season, Pittsburgh should certainly receive a bargain with his salary beginning to approach his probable value in the final year of the deal, though still a million or two below.

Ramirez is an interesting study in teams' developmental practices. He moved along at a somewhat steady pace through the first three years of his minor league career, spending a season in Rookie ball, followed by a year of short season ball in the New York-Penn League with a late season call up to the low-A team in the South Atlantic League. He then spent a full year in the Carolina League with the Pirates A-ball team at Lynchburg.

He really began to show his power at Lynchburg, racking up 29 home runs and 24 doubles in 482 at-bats, which is probably why Pittsburgh chose to start him at AAA to begin the 1998 season despite fairly poor plate discipline (40:103 BB:K). They then proceeded to call him up at the end of May, likely due to the lack of quality alternatives. He stayed with the major league club until late August when he went on the DL with a hyper-extended left shoulder; Ramirez was called up again in early September to finish the year with the team. However the Pirates were unimpressed with his performance in 1998, in which his poor plate discipline remained evident while his power skills lay dormant. Subsequently he was sent back to AAA in 1999 and only called up in September. The trip to the minors was beneficial to Ramirez. He showed very good plate discipline for the first time since Rookie ball and his power re-emerged. Perhaps the only shadow over his success at AAA in 1999 is that he was playing in the Pacific Coast League, which is geared towards offense.

Fifty-six at-bats is really too small a sample size to be useful in analysis, but his September cup-of-coffee was unimpressive. Of the two performances, the Pirates evidently felt the AAA numbers provided a more accurate picture of his skills because he started 2000 in the majors, though they sent him down to AAA again at the end of April. He was recalled in June but was slowed first by a sore hand caused by being hit by a pitch, and then by a partially dislocated shoulder that eventually forced him onto the DL to end the season.

Despite his weak performance in 2000, he again began last season with the major league team. Pittsburgh obviously felt that regardless of his actual production, Ramirez was ready for full-time major league play. He proceeded to make the front office look very good by accumulating 34 home runs in 603 AB, contributing to a season SLG of .536.

Obviously, there's little to dislike about those power numbers. However, his 40:100 BB:K has given me considerable pause as to whether or not he will be able to hold onto his .300 BA and .350 OBP, and power numbers can also suffer when plate discipline drops. I was inclined to automatically predict a slump in 2002, but after examining his minor league path and performance, I've decided that it is just as likely that he will improve his batting eye and see an increase in production.

Regardless of the fact he had the advantage of playing in the Pacific Coast League in 1999, he still demonstrated knowledge of the strike zone. This is evident in his Major League Equivalencies for that year, which show him with an eye of 1.53 (63:41 BB:K in 460 AB). Therefore, he can utilize quality plate discipline under some circumstances. Although not as pronounced, this conjecture is also supported by his low minor league numbers.

Before I conclude this article, I do have one final interesting piece to the puzzle for anyone attempting to predict Ramirez's upside over the next few years. Richie Hebner, who we recently discussed as Philadelphia's major league hitting coach last season and one of the worst hitting coaches in all of baseball, was the Pirates' AAA hitting coach during Ramirez's time at that level.

The players who have suffered problems with their plate discipline following his tutelage are numerous, though the affects usually wear away after a few years with a more competent coach. These developments should be particularly encouraging for Ramirez, as according to the Baseball Reference website, the player that Ramirez most resembles through age 23 is Richie Hebner.

For those of you unfamiliar with Baseball Reference, they provide very interesting player comparisons based upon a sophisticated system derived from the similarity scores introduced by Bill James in the 1980's.

Hebner was actually slightly better at practicing than he was at preaching, so Ramirez wouldn't be in terrible shape if he followed Hebner's career path. Furthermore, I suspect the effects of Hebner's instruction, or whatever has been depressing Ramirez's eye, will wear off in time, but I found the coincidence worth reporting.