Buddy Groom signed a two-year, $6.25 million contract extension with Baltimore on Monday. His current contract runs through the end of 2002, so he will make $2.5M this season and $3M in 2003 and 2004. The deal also includes a $3M club option for 2005 with a $250K buyout.

This contract extension makes little to no sense. Groom will be turning 37 in July, so this contract would take him past his 40th birthday if the option were picked up. He did have a great year last season, largely because he struck out 54 batters in 66 IP while only walking 9. However, although he's had a good career, last season doesn't match up well with the rest of his stats, which show a career K/BB of 1.7. There is a possibility that he's suddenly virtually eliminated walks from his repertoire and replaced them with strikeouts, but I strongly suspect that last season was his peak and things will gradually move back towards their former levels and then continue downhill.

Multi-year deals for relievers are tricky under the best of circumstances as the pitchers can lose their edge at any time. Some exceptions should be made for closers, because you can usually trade on the risk of a possible decline to negotiate a lower salary than they would typically receive from year to year on the free agent market, but anything more than three or four years is too much risk. It's also probably safe to give some other top relievers two-year deals, but between the risk involved and the readily available, inexpensive replacement talent, anything more is silly. If you are going to give a reliever a long-term contract, they certainly shouldn't be over 35 unless they're a knuckleball pitcher. The longevity witnessed in Jesse Orosco and John Franco is rare.

On top of all of these reasons, we have the fact that Groom is a LHP. We've questioned the signing of lefties to little more than $1M and Groom will be earning three times that much. There are dozens of pitchers who will work almost as well for close to the minimum. While he allowed more walks than Groom, Oriole B.J. Ryan had just as many K's in less innings, and Baltimore has several other lefties in their minors. This extension could be a prelude to Groom's appointment as the Baltimore closer. However, lefties aren't typically used as closers and the same risks apply whatever his role.

Birthday Updates

With the increased standards for travel documents of people entering the United States, the list of age changes for players returning from their off-season overseas homes continues to grow. Several more players have undergone adjustments since we last discussed the topic and a few others were not covered at that time.

San Diego second base prospect Bernabel Castro is 22 rather than 20 years old. He has fairly good plate discipline and great speed but doesn't hit well and has no power. This change reflects poorly on him as he only reached low-A ball in 2001. He should still progress steadily through the minors, but the increase in his age means there will be more pressure for him to reach the majors faster. Since the Padres are already well situated in the middle infield, he may have trouble breaking into the big leagues.

The discrepancy with Bartolo Colon's age was known a week ago, but there has been some controversy as to exactly how much older he really is. However, his birth certificate lists him as 28 rather than 26. This likely indicates that Colon has peaked and is in his prime rather than just approaching it. The good news is that it is more likely that Colon's arm was mature enough to adequately handle his heavy workload from the last few seasons. He shouldn't start to see a significant decline for several more years.

Jose Colon, another Cleveland righty, also underwent a change in age. He is now believed to be 27 rather than 24. Considering it took him 4 years to make it out of Rookie ball, he's just a reliever, and he still hasn't advanced beyond low-A, it isn't likely that Cleveland fans will ever have to worry about differentiating between two Colons. After looking at his stats, I was a little surprised that he had not advanced faster, as he's had better than 2K:BB since 1998. His 47:6 K:BB in 52 IP at Columbus last season should merit a promotion. However, this alteration has likely eliminated his shot at the majors.

Houston reliever Octavio Dotel turned 28 last November rather than 26. This might mean Dotel's career will be a few years shorter, but the discrepancy may also have given him the time to move through the minors at a pace that better prepared him for his current position. While he doesn't appear to have the stamina to endure starting, Dotel has posted stellar strikeout numbers recently and should be a dominant reliever and setup man for the Astros for several more years.

Red Sox's minor leaguer Daniel Figueroa turned 23 in January rather than 20. Boston signed the outfielder as a non-drafted free agent in 1998, and he's spent all of the intervening time in Rookie Ball. His plate discipline seems to have improved enough to merit advancement, but he neither has any power nor speed of which to speak. I doubt whether he will now ever be able to advance through the minors and make the big leagues.

Anaheim Angels' outfield prospect Elpidio Guzman turned 25 on Sunday instead of the expected 23. He has great speed upside and even a little power when he manages to hit the ball. However, he's one of those players who will have a hard time offensively until they allow guys to start stealing 1B as his plate discipline is dreadful. He did reach AA last season, but he probably shouldn't have been promoted that far in the first place considering his lack of strike zone judgment. Guzman will need to improve dramatically before he will be able to break through to the majors, and at 25 his time is running out.

Several sites are compiling running lists; Baseball America has a nice table. I'm going to break this off for now and resume tomorrow or the next slow news day, as I'm sure the list will continue to expand.