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February
16th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
Forever Young

by Jessica Polko

Dmitri Young signed a 4-year, $28.5 million contract with the Detroit Tigers on Thursday. The contract includes a club option for a sixth year that reportedly could become guaranteed with regular playing time and which would make the deal worth $37M over five years. There is also a provision for a sixth year that would make the contract worth $44M over six years.

I'm a supporter of Dmitri Young, but Detroit has severely overpaid for his talents. He can play 1B, 3B, and LF while posting good stats. Unfortunately, he's at his peak right now, his numbers are shallow as his production seems to be centered around a good contact rate, which means he can slump quickly for any number of reasons, while his overall plate discipline could use improvement, and his moderate power will likely be suppressed by Comerica Park. I'm not saying he will see a significant downturn in the near future; his career .297 BA and .351 OBP will likely improve due to the spacious Detroit outfield. However, players of his caliber shouldn't be paid this kind of money. The length of the contract is as imprudent as the salary, especially if the fifth year is easily guaranteed by regular playing time. Although he hasn't spent much time on the DL, Young has suffered from numerous small ailments over the years, and his value could drop rapidly if his contact rate falls or if injury reduces his positional flexibility. The Tigers seem to be trying to make a real effort to build for the future, but they are making all the wrong moves.


Frank Catalanotto signed a one-year, $2.3 million contract with the Texas Rangers on Friday. This salary seems fairly reasonable for a leadoff man, especially considering his BA and OBP were in the top 10 in the American League last season. However, his performance also appears to be primarily based around his contact rate.

He should continue to hit in the leadoff slot this season for the Rangers and should spend time at various positions, though with the new off-season additions of Carl Everett and Juan Gonzalez, Catalanotto will likely see more time at DH and less time in the outfield this season. Sophomore second baseman Mike Young might be pinched for a few at-bats, but Rafael Palmeiro is still entrenched at 1B and the 3B situation is already over-crowded.


On Friday, Esteban Yan lost the first arbitration case to be decided this year and will make only $1.5 million in 2002, rather than the $2.4M he would have made had he won the case. Tampa Bay did well here. While they may have alienated him through the arbitration process, they do have potential replacements almost ready in Victor Zambrano and Travis Phelps, and this is a very good price for a pitcher who should be a quality closer if healthy. Yan did suffer from some shoulder problems last season, which likely helped Tampa at the hearing, but he appears to have recovered. I believe he doesn't become a free agent until after 2003, so the Devil Rays should be able to hold on to him until next year's trading deadline and then deal him when his value is at its peak.


The Yankees signed free agent Ruben Rivera to a one-year contract with a club option on Thursday. He will have a base salary of $700K in 2002. He will receive a $300K buyout if the option is declined. If New York exercises the option, he will receive $1.4M in 2003. He should be able to beat out Gerald Williams for the back-up outfield job, but Williams is making $2M this season, so he might have the edge. However, these are the Yankees and they rarely quibble over a little over a million dollars. I'd say there's about a 50/50 chance they'll exercise the option, dependent upon how well he performs this season, how well the other outfielders hold up, and the performance of prospects Juan Rivera and Marcus Thames at AAA Columbus.

In order to add Rivera to the 40-man roster the Yankees had to DFA Brian Rogers. Rogers is a 25-year-old right-handed starter who put up fairly nice numbers at AA last season. New York can afford the loss with the talent in their minor league system, but he would be a good waiver acquisition with upside for most teams.


Gary DiSarcina signed a minor league contract with the Boston Red Sox on Friday. DiSarcina could be disastrous pick-up for the Sox if the new owners feel pressure from the current stars to add another "proven veteran" to the roster. Lou Merloni has several advantages in that he already owns a 40-man roster spot, is a few years younger, hasn't been out of baseball for almost two seasons, and is Nomar's little buddy. DiSarcina had shoulder surgery in May of 2000 and hasn't played since. He shouldn't be able to beat Merloni out of the back-up middle infield position unless he has a fantastic spring and someone in the front office is swayed by his former starting status and neglects to examine his stats. If they don't sign anyone else in the middle infield, DiSarcina will likely see some playing time before the year is out due to probable infielder injuries.


Mark Gardner announced his retirement on Wednesday. He will be 40 this year and his wife has had serious health problems the last few years, including two liver transplants. His career got a late start, but he had some good years and was a fairly capable bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher most of the time.


Rafael Furcal is the latest player to be exposed as older than his listed age, as he is in fact 23 and not 21. The revelation is not all that shocking as Furcal was arrested for underage drinking (and drunk driving) in June of 2000 and reports surfaced then that the 19-year-old was actually 21 and therefore legal to drink. This announcement does mean that Furcal did not break the record of bases stolen by a teenager in 2000 because he was over 19 at the time. Furcal's projected potential has also been downgraded somewhat as his accomplishments are less indicative of the kind of steep curve of improvement that was expected when he was thought to be extremely young.

The discrepancy was discovered when he was picking up his new visa. As we mentioned with Ramon Ortiz, documents now are being checked more carefully, so we can expect similar reports in the near future as players return to the U.S. for Spring Training.


Mike Darr died a tragically preventable death as the result of his own drunk driving and neglecting to wear a seat belt. He also killed a friend, Duane Johnson, who was also riding in the car without a seat belt at the time. San Diego pitching prospect Ben Howard, who was wearing his seat belt in the back seat, suffered only minor scrapes and bruises. This type of accident should never happen. Tim has taken today off from his normal fantasy baseball column to discuss the situation more thoroughly.

Darr's untimely death opens up back-up at-bats in the Padres outfield. Cesar Crespo will likely pick-up the majority of the slack, though Kory DeHaan could also receive some of the additional available time. Discussion of who will fill his place on the Padres may seem a bit cold at this time, but compassion is difficult to muster for someone who so directly brings about his own demise. I will leave the rest of this lecture to our other column, but please don't drink and drive.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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