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February
8th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
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Anderson Accounting

by Jessica Polko

Matt Anderson agreed to a multi-year contract with the Tigers on Thursday. The two sides settled on a three-year deal worth $9.7 million. He will receive a base salary of $1.8M in 2002, $3.2M in 2003, and $4.3M in 2004. The contract includes a club option for a fourth year at $6.25 with a $400K buyout, as well as possible performance bonuses of $100K in 2002 and $400K in 2003 and 2004. His option automatically kicks in if he finishes a combined 100 games in 2003 and 2004.

When you invest a #1 draft pick in a player, you need to stay committed to that player and if they show any success in the majors, take the necessary actions to insure they will be a part of your organization for years to come. While using a first overall pick on a relief pitcher still qualifies as one of silliest moves in draft history, Detroit has at least made some good moves in the aftermath, picking a good time for Anderson to depose Todd Jones and securing his future with the organization well in advance of his free agency. This contract takes Anderson through the rest of his arbitration years, and with the option, through his first season of free agency.

In addition to the intelligence shown in signing Anderson early, the Tigers were also smart about the size of the contract. On the surface, Anderson posted what many may mistake for a rather high ERA of 4.82 last season. However if you subtract one really bad performance last April in which he allowed 7 ER in a third of an inning, you get a much more attractive ERA of 3.72. One year of marginal success as a closer with around two-dozen saves does not in and of itself warrant a multi-year contract and long-term commitment. However he posted solid skill ratios close to a K/IP and 2.8 K/BB for the season, and if you look at his second half, those numbers continued to improve as the year progressed. These stats have a solid historical foundation, and at 25, he still appears to be improving upon his performance levels.

Considering Anderson's recent performance and potential, the Tigers are likely in possession of a closer truly worthy of the title. Over the last few years, the market has established the price for premium closers at somewhere in the neighborhood of $32M for 4-years. Houston recently signed Wagner to a three-year, $27M contract with a $9M option. While Anderson is not yet as established as the pitchers receiving those salaries, there is every reason to believe he will become so in the next few years. Even if you take into consideration the fact that he still would have been limited by arbitration for the next few seasons, Detroit still managed to sign him for less than half of what Wagner received, and Wagner, though better established, is only a year removed from arm surgery.

The length of the contract works as it takes him through arbitration and into free agency without weighing Detroit down with an unreasonably long commitment to a relief pitcher, which is good considering relievers are prone to sudden decreases in value. The salary is far below market value if he makes good on his potential and within reason even if he devolves into a mere setup man. Even the option year, normally a feature of contracts that severely favors the player, works to the club's advantage. If he is pitching at the expected level, the option is almost guaranteed to automatically trigger for several million less than Anderson would likely go for on the free agent market at that point.

Anderson's agent was successful in obtaining security for his client but likely at the expense of several million dollars of potential earnings. It isn't often that the Tigers are worthy of praise, but Dave Dombrowski certainly deserves a cookie for his work on this contract.


Sidney Ponson also agreed to a new contract on Thursday. He and the Orioles negotiated a one-year deal worth $2.65 million with a potential of up to $125K in performance bonuses if he reaches 31 GS or 210 IP. While the salary is likely a logical raise from the $2.1M he received in 2001, the primary point to focus on here is that it should not be Baltimore paying his salary this season.

Ponson was overworked at a young age and last season was already beginning to show the signs of overuse, hitting the DL with tendinitis in his forearm midway through the year. He has the potential to become a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter but should never be anything more. The Orioles don't have a team capable of greatness in 2002 and have a farm system stocked with enough arms to fill a complete rotation by 2004 at the latest. Given Ponson's limited upside and injury risks, Baltimore should have traded him this off-season, so I strongly recommend they pursue all avenues in the next few months.

Last month, I suggested that Texas might have been interested in trading Gabe Kapler for Ponson, and the Orioles really should have jumped at the opportunity if, as rumored, it was truly available in December. Kapler has more power than anyone on the Baltimore roster and is signed cheaply through 2003. Obviously, a Texas deal is almost certainly off the table with all of the pitching depth the Rangers have added in the last few months. However, there should still be several interested clubs. My trouble with constructing potential trades in these situations is always in finding a team to stick with the departing player, as although I usually believe there will be interested GMs, I try to make suggestions that theoretically benefit both sides. In this case, I could definitely see a team like the Pirates taking the bait in exchange for a package of J.R. House, a West Virginia native, and one of their overpriced veterans.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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