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January
22nd
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
Rusching to Conclusions

by Jessica Polko

We interrupt our coverage of new player contracts to bring you analysis of the mammoth three-way trade between the Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets, and Colorado Rockies. Late Monday afternoon the three teams finally announced the completion of an 11-player trade.

New York Mets acquire OF Jeromy Burnitz, RHP Jeff D'Amico, UT Lou Collier, and 1B/OF Mark Sweeney from Milwaukee, along with RHP Craig House and 1B/OF Ross Gload from Colorado.

Milwaukee Brewers acquire LHP Glendon Rusch and UT Lenny Harris from New York and OF Alex Ochoa from Colorado.

Colorado Rockies acquire 3B Todd Zeile, OF Benny Agbayani, and $3.25M from the Mets, as well as $250K via NY from Milwaukee.

The Mets have been talking to the Brewers about acquiring Burnitz since at least the start of the off-season. They've taken their time completing the deal while making numerous other off-season moves in the meantime, but now the Mets' 1990 first round pick returns to the fold. He's a great fit in their lineup, sliding into the #6 hole behind Roger Cedeno, Roberto Alomar, Mike Piazza, Mo Vaughn, and Edgardo Alfonzo. He will provide additional power lower in the lineup and break up the right-handed hitters otherwise all pooled together. I would expect Burnitz to play right field, with Cedeno moving to LF, and Jay Payton receiving the majority of the time in CF.

New York comes out ahead in this deal even if D'Amico stays on the Brewers, so his addition is pure icing on the cake. Although D'Amico has had significant injury troubles throughout his career and suffered during last season in particular, he still has solid potential. I've already heard speculation that his arrival in New York may force Bruce Chen out of the rotation and into the bullpen, however I think I would use D'Amico in the pen instead.

He could come back strong after having shoulder surgery last season and pitch as well or better than he did in 2000, his best year to date. The problem is that if he's healthy enough to put up a good season, it will likely land him right back on the DL even if the Mets make a concerted effort not to overwork him, a very difficult task when a player is pitching well. D'Amico managed to start 23 games in 1997 and then missed all of 1998 and the vast majority of 1999; he started 23 games again in 2000, only to miss a good deal of last year and perform at a diminished level even when able to pitch. He has chronic shoulder problems, and I see no reason to believe that this latest surgery will have permanently corrected them.

If he's moved to the bullpen, then his workload should be appreciably reduced and he might even have the opportunity to improve upon his overall strikeout totals. While his command has been solid, he hasn't struck out many batters as a starter. Although the Mets currently appear to need another lefty in the pen more than an additional RHP as John Franco is getting very old, Mark Guthrie is nearing the end of his contract, free agent acquisition David Weathers isn't suited for closing duties, and Armando Benitez's name is never far from trade talks. Worst case, D'Amico should make a good setup man, and if he can boost his Ks with the reduced IP, he might even be closer material. They should be able to find another lefty for the pen between Mike Bacsik, Jamie Cerda, and Adam Walker, though they don't need one with Guthrie and Franco already around. Chen could excel in the bullpen, but he has more potential as a starter and lacks the health obstacles of D'Amico. Nonetheless, I do expect them to move Chen out of the rotation through a trade or role change and start D'Amico right up until he lands on the DL again.

D'Amico was not the only pitcher the Mets picked up in the deal. The team also acquired Rockies prospect Craig House. House made a brief major league debut with Colorado in 2000, but has spent much of the last two seasons at AAA Colorado Springs. The 24-year-old righty is best known for his convoluted delivery, though he has reportedly made positive strides towards smoothing out his motion and marginally improving his command. Given his advanced age and developmental level, it appears that he's just about ready to join a major league bullpen. A year ago there were those who considered him potential closer material, so he could perform if given the opportunity. He has to be pleased about escaping the purgatory of pitching in Colorado.

The other semi-prospect New York picked up in this trade was Colorado 1B/LF Ross Gload, who the Rockies snatched off waivers from the Cubs late in the season. Gload spent the majority of last season at AAA for Chicago, putting up acceptable but not fantastic numbers. He shows noteworthy power potential despite more than a few plate discipline problems. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets used him as a back-up OF this season and possibly even a platoon partner with Jay Payton if they don't make another move to acquire an additional outfielder. Despite the defensive downgrade, Cedeno's capable of playing center on days when Gload is in the line-up. With his injury history, Payton probably shouldn't be playing everyday and this would give Gload a chance to demonstrate some of his potential rather than sit around wasting away in AAA. However, he may have to compete with Timo Perez for a roster spot, as it doesn't look like New York will have any room left for Perez when the season starts. Gary Mathews should still be their primary centerfield back-up and Joe McEwing should make the roster as a utilityman.

The lists of New York pick-ups in this trade just keeps going, as the number of players the Mets obtained is equal to twice as many as the Brewers and three times as many as the Rockies. Lou Collier will likely become the primary back-up infielder while sharing his duties with McEwing, another reserve able to play the outfield. Collier also hits fairly well against left-handers, and together with Mark Sweeney, the Mets' final pick-up in this trade, could effectively replace Lenny Harris. In addition to his pinch-hitting skills, Sweeney can also play first base and some outfield, so adds even more flexibility to New York's roster.

Lenny Harris, who the Brewers acquired from the Mets in this deal, is almost exclusively a pinch hitter, and last season he broke the record for career pinch hits. He's good at what he does and should provide good production for Milwaukee off the bench, but there aren't a lot of reasons to consider him an upgrade over the two players (Collier and Sweeney) the team traded away. Its possible that the organization was attracted to his plate discipline after their strikeout problems last season; then again, they might have just been looking to freshen up the team with some aged turnover. Harris does have the ability to play a little infield, although if their Opening Day roster resembles its current form, the Brewers will have more than enough infielders.

The other player Milwaukee acquired from New York in this deal was LHP Glendon Rusch. The Brewers have been looking to add a lefty starter for some time now to complement their young right-handers, and pitching coach Dave Stewart has reportedly liked Rusch's potential ever since scouting him in his role as Toronto's assistant general manager.

Rusch's skills project to a quality number two starter at some point in his career, but most observers don't yet feel that he's reached that level. Nevertheless, Rusch will be expected to step in and basically become the number two for Milwaukee. He has the additional weight on his shoulders of lessening the burden on some of the club's younger pitchers, many of whom are on the brink of falling victim to serious injury as the result of overuse. He's basically equally likely to blossom as to fold under his new responsibilities, with Dave Stewart's coaching playing a determining role in the outcome. Rusch is a great acquisition for Brewers and an upgrade over D'Amico based on his health and stability alone. If the Milwaukee defense can assist at all in lowering his H/9, he could look very good in Miller Park.

Ochoa's return to Milwaukee is the club's other big acquisition in this trade, as he should go a considerable way towards moving the team away from last season's multitudes of strikeouts. He will take over in RF for Burnitz and add to the Brewers' defense with his gun of an arm, although Milwaukee has already discussed the possibility of acquiring a left-handed hitter to platoon with him. I believe this to be a mistake on two levels as he should play full-time in centerfield to reduce the stress on the injury-prone Jeffrey Hammonds, who appears unable to remain healthy in CF. Ochoa could also settle into the #2 slot in the order as one of their best OBP threats, however sad that decision might appear to outside observers.

I really like Benny Agbayani in Coors Field. I think he's capable of playing LF solo, but he'll likely platoon unless Hollandsworth is traded or experiences difficulties in his recovery from a nasty deep bruise and nerve damage to his shin. However, even if he is limited to 300-400 AB, I can see him hitting up to 15 home runs with a .310 BA. While his environment will obviously skew the numbers, they will still look very pretty. Agbayani should be pleased with the move as it should be a lot more fun than being sold by the Mets to a Japanese team.

I actually prefer the Agbayani acquisition to that of Todd Zeile, the final player involved in this deal, and feel that an Agbayani/Hollandsworth platoon would be a much better choice for the Rockies to hit out of the five hole. Zeile does fill Colorado's need for a third baseman, though his defense will be questionable as he's spent the last two years playing first base. I would likely hit Zeile low in the lineup until he does something to merit a move up, but it seems that the front office considers him as a possible "solution" to problems higher in the order, so he could hit as high as 4th between Helton and Larry Walker.

Looking at this trade as a whole, the Mets made out like bandits by robbing the other organizations. Burnitz is exactly the type of hitter they needed to add, D'Amico shows good potential, as do both Craig House and Ross Gload, and Lou Collier and Mark Sweeney are solid additions to the bench. While Rusch is useful to Milwaukee as a lefty starter, there was no need for them to have to give up D'Amico in addition to Burnitz, and the swap of bench players seems a bit pointless. Colorado traded a good outfielder for a good outfielder, gained an old, expensive player who is rusty at the position where the Rockies need him most, and also gave up two decent prospects in the process. The Rockies slide by since they received compensation for the majority of Zeile's salary and would have likely lost Ross Gload anyway as they DFA'd him last week. Most importantly, this was a negligent trade by the Brewers and an example of management that would make them prime candidates for contraction were they not psuedo-owned by the commissioner. Since contraction remains perhaps the worst idea in baseball history, our Milwaukee friends will simply settle for a tenth straight sub-.500 finish.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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