December 27th 2001 |
Out of the Frying Pan |
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by Jessica Polko Florida Marlins' owner John Henry has put the team between a rock and a hard place while negotiating the sale of the organization with Expos owner Jeffery Loria. General Manager, Manager, and major league coaching staff top the list of positions that the club has left open in anticipation of new ownership. Meanwhile, the off-season is well underway, and the Marlins still need to take care of standard team maintenance. There are numerous areas where the team needs to start making decisions. Although many of them are still quite young, the Marlins' have a good starting rotation with several pitchers available to move in from the minors in case of an injury to a starter. Brad Penny should step up to be their ace this year. Ryan Dempster will then drop down to the 2nd slot. A.J. Burnett will most likely begin the season as the three starter, but Josh Beckett could quickly move up in the rotation from the 4th slot where he should begin the year. Matt Clement and Chuck Smith can duke it out in spring training to determine which pitcher becomes the 5 starter and which takes up long relief in the bullpen. Prospect Kevin Olsen could also be up before September and compete for the 5th starter's position. With their abundance of youth, Florida should consider trading the more expensive Dempster and/or Clement. The bullpen is also fairly well stocked. In fact there is enough talent lying around the system that the team should consider trading an overvalued Antonio Alfonseca. The lack of a lefty starter may be the only weakness in the Marlins' staff. Switching over to look at the offense, Florida has an acceptable infield. Although Luis Castillo had a disappointing season in 2001, he should be able to bounce back if he can shake the injuries that held him down. Alex Gonzalez is satisfactory at short, at least until Miguel Cabrera reaches the majors in a few years. Mike Lowell was hampered by a wrist injury in 2001, but an off-season of rest should allow him to improve on his 2001 performance levels. In fact had he not been hurt, I would have predicted last season to be a career year for the third baseman. While Derrek Lee has been a bit of a disappointment at 1B, he could still live up to his potential. The Marlins selected 1B prospect Adrian Gonzalez with the #1 overall pick in the 2000 draft. He spent all of last season in low A-ball, and unsurprisingly needs to work on his plate discipline before he can think about the majors any time soon. Provided his strike zone judgment shows improvement, Gonzalez should be ready to take over at 1B in two to three years when Lee becomes a free agent. Lee is an acceptable placeholder until that time, but probably not a long-term solution. Florida doesn't have to deal with the transition that would have arisen had Charles Johnson exercised the out clause in his contract. Ramon Castro has more upside even over the next few seasons, but Johnson provides a well-defined average level of offensive production with excellent defense. Johnson's presence means that the Marlins should look into trading Castro to a team with an available starting catching position. Colorado might be a good fit. In the outfield, there are more questions. Cliff Floyd will be a free agent at the end of 2002, so the Marlins need to decide what they are going to do with him. Option number one would be to let him play out his last season and then become a free agent, let him test the market, make some kind of offer but probably not anything high enough to persuade him to stay, offer arbitration and collect the draft picks when he signs with another team. Option number two would be to start working on a long-term contract now and get him signed before he has a chance to become a free agent. Option number three is to trade Floyd sometime between now and the July 31st deadline; options two and three can also be combined so that if Florida is unable to re-sign him by the deadline, they can then look into trading him. The Marlins currently appear to be favoring a trade of some sort and should have a fairly good idea of what is available, as they have been discussing trading Floyd off and on for the last four to five years because of payroll concerns. I also tend to think they should deal him. At 30, he has an injury history that would put many 36 year-old players to shame. He's a bad example of plate discipline for the younger players and his offensive contribution, while somewhat necessary to the immediate success of the Marlins, is not irreplaceable. Floyd's contract does allow him to block any deals that would send him to Kansas City, Minnesota, Montreal, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, or Toronto. The Yankees have been everyone's favorite rumored destination for months, but with their recent off-season free agent acquisitions, speculation has died down. I think that they could still add Floyd and that he would be useful to them, potentially hitting out of the leadoff slot left open with the departure of Knoblauch. Rondell White could then move to RF, and Jeter could hit second, further maximizing their offense and defense. However, Yankee GM Brian Cashman has indicated that they are most likely finished with their off-season moves, so I would expect a deal with New York to happen in-season closer to the deadline. Any deal between the Yankees and the Marlins would almost certainly include NY prospect Nick Johnson, who could either take over at 1B allowing Derrek Lee to play RF for Florida or play the OF himself. With a little negotiating, they might also be able to secure SS prospect Erick Almonte. Other possible trade partners include the Cardinals, White Sox, and Rangers, but they don't match up quite as well with Florida. Preston Wilson still needs to cut back on his strikeouts, but he should work well in centerfield at least until he becomes a free agent in about three years. Depending on their other moves in the next few seasons, I might even consider trying to sign him to a second long-term deal before he hits free agency. The Marlins need some help in right field. Eric Owens might make an acceptable 4th or possibly platoon outfielder, but he should not be starting full-time. Kevin Millar is an acceptable short-term alternative, but Florida really needs to trade for a long-term solution, possibly as part of a Cliff Floyd deal. Millar might even secure a decent prospect from a team looking for a more experienced bat. Abraham Nunez, Florida's best offensive prospect in the upper minors, still needs at the very least another half season to work on his plate discipline before a promotion to the Marlins, but they might consider rushing him to the majors to fill the RF hole. Outfield prospect Jason Stokes was drafted a round after Adrian Gonzalez in 2000, and like Gonzalez, is still at least two to three years away. Looking at the bench, Mike Redmond is an acceptable back up catcher, and as previously discussed, Ramon Castro should be packaged in trade to a team able to take advantage of his skills. Andy Fox is an acceptable utilityman, and the loser of the RF battle will be the primary backup outfielder. After reviewing the entire team, it looks like the Marlins have the ability to trade individually or in packages: Dempster and/or Clement, Alfonseca, Floyd, Millar, and Castro. They should be looking to acquire one or two solid outfielders and a quality lefty starter; good prospects to keep the farm system well stocked should also be targeted. The sale of the team should be finalized at the January owners' meeting, allowing the club to move forward with some of these moves. If new management makes intelligent decisions, Florida could become a serious contender within the next two seasons.
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