December 12th 2001 |
Out of the Frying Pan |
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by Jessica Polko If the stream of baseball transactions has been no more than a trickle so far this off-season, then Tuesday the winter meetings brought us flood waters. The day got off to a running start with the eight-player blockbuster deal between the Cleveland Indians and the New York Mets. By 3:30 Central there were two more announced trades, one between the Detroit Tigers and Cincinnati Reds and the other between San Diego and Seattle. The White Sox also announced a new contract for pitcher Keith Foulke. However, the day was not yet complete as before it ended the Chicago Cubs and Florida Marlins completed a trade. I will try to analyze each deal thoroughly, despite the fact that had they occurred on separate days I might have given each a whole or a large portion of an article. Any discussion of the anti-trust hearings obviously has been put off indefinitely.
Trade #1: CLE - NYM Even without knowing the identity of the player to be named later, I can tell you that the Mets won this deal. Roberto Alomar is a guaranteed Hall-of-Famer, who deserved at the very least serious consideration for MVP last season. He combines Gold Glove defense with a solid power and fantastic on-base skills. Despite the fact that he will be 34 when this season starts, Alomar is also still holding on to most of his speed. The second baseman should be sorely missed in Cleveland and deeply loved in New York. His arrival will force Edgardo Alfonzo to move across the infield to the recently-vacated 3B. Alfonzo has not expressed extreme joy at this prospect and may struggle with it for a while but should be able to adjust; the Mets hope he won't object to playing third for a while since he's a free agent at the end of next season. In Cleveland, Alomar's job has been given to Jolbert Cabrera, a utility player over the last few years, who has shown the potential to improve with an increased number of at-bats. Moving on to look at the other players acquired by the Mets, they already have an abundance of LHP's, so although the 24-year-old Mike Bacsik put up some very good numbers in AA and then AAA last season, he will probably be relegated to the bullpen if he makes the team. At 26, Danny Peoples displayed no strike zone judgment, no speed, and only average power in AAA last year. Looking at the players Cleveland picked up, Matt Lawton is the biggest current star in the group, but prospect Alex Escobar is most likely the gold nugget in the group of players the Indians are receiving. It was known from very early on in the off-season that the Mets were shopping Lawton, though many thought it would be in return for another outfielder. He should be eligible for free agency after this year, so Cleveland will have to pony up some big money if they want to keep him beyond this season. Escobar has been near the top of prospect lists for several years now, which is both good and bad, in that he's near the top, but hasn't been able to stick in the majors yet. He has some serious problems with strike zone judgment that could hold him back if not corrected, but his other skills have led some to project him to Jermaine Dye with speed. It will take some time before we find out if this is real gold or if Mark Shapiro just traded for pyrite. Lawton should be starting in right field when the season begins, and I would put Milton Bradley in center, while leaving Escobar in AAA for another half season. However, there is the possibility that what Escobar really needs is to be thrown into a full-time role and forced to adjust with the help of some major league hitting coaches. If he does start the year with the club, he might play center, but more likely would find himself in left field. Ellis Burks can't play center, although they do have the recently signed Brady Anderson lying around. Cleveland will have some work to do during spring training to sort out the ultimate look for their outfield. Jerrod Riggan is a 27-year-old RHP, who has received a few innings in the Mets' bullpen the last two years. He's nothing special, but did do fairly well in the second half last year, so should be able to help out Cleveland in their pen. There are strong indications that P Billy Traber, the Mets' first round pick in 2000 is one of the two players to be named later, and that the teams are only waiting until after the Rule V draft to announce this. Traber advanced quickly during the 2001 season, starting the year at A St. Lucie, stopping off at AA Birmingham for 40 odd IP, before finishing the year with a game at AAA. Although he performed exceptionally at all levels, I think the safe bet would be to keep him in the minors at least until September to give him extra time against more experienced offenses.
Trade #2: CIN - DET Everyone knows that Cincinnati has been talking trade regarding Dmitri Young for months. So while his inclusion in a deal is not unexpected, the identities of the players he was traded for are somewhat surprising. The last thing the Reds appear to need is another outfielder, let alone one who is barely mediocre. Juan Encarnacion does have the ability to improve, but I don't see any reason for Cincy to waste a starting position on him. They already have Ken Griffey, Jr. and Adam Dunn set in the outfield. There are several possibilities for the third spot even without taking into account that Austin Kearns should be ready to pretty much mimic Dunn's path last year this season. Pineda pitched very well at AA Erie last season, was promoted to AAA for a couple games, and debuted with the Tigers as a reliever. The 23-year-old righty definitely has the potential to become a good starter but may need a short stint in AAA to polish those skills. He should contribute to the Reds' bullpen or even rotation before the end of the season. The Tigers love Dmitri Young. They think he has the kind of bat that will excel in Comerica Park and his position flexibility gives them numerous options. Right now they are primarily looking to start him at 1B, however he could fill in at 3B were Dean Palmer to become injured again (or leave in another trade) and can play the OF. Obviously, anyone with a bat can DH. The one concern might be that despite Encarnacion's limited upside, his departure leaves them with a bit of a whole in the outfield. Detroit could look to fill that through another trade or free agency, and if nothing else comes through Young is capable of filling in.
Trade #3: SD - SEA This is an interesting trade from both sides. San Diego recently signed their back-up catcher Wiki Gonzalez to a 4-year deal, so it seemed probable that they might trade Davis. Gonzalez will now be the starter with the newly acquired Tom Lampkin as backup. The Mariners already have a young shortstop in place with Carlos Guillen, so they could afford to downgrade to Alex Arias as a back-up. Tomko, who has been languishing in their minors, was dealt because he is out of options, and they don't have room for him on the major league club in Seattle. He should step right into the rotation in San Diego. Meanwhile, Wascar Serrano has options left so he gives the Mariners more flexibility. Ben Davis is the player that makes this trade so interesting. As I've mentioned the Padres didn't really need to hang on to him with Wiki Gonzalez, however I'm not so sure he'll stay with Seattle for that long either. One of the things that the Colorado Rockies are looking for this off-season is a young catcher with good defense. They are unhappy with Ben Petrick and don't want him to be their starter. The Rockies are also looking into unloading third baseman Jeff Cirillo. Seattle is looking for a new third baseman, and Cirillo has expressed interest in playing for the Mariners near his Richmond, WA home. Put this altogether and you could have Ben Davis included in a package for Jeff Cirillo in the near future. A back-up for Dan Wilson should be easier to find than an established third baseman. San Diego's acquisition of Ramon Vazquez is also interesting given the way that it will likely affect their infield. Vazquez is ready to start in the majors this year at SS, so they will likely move D'Angelo Jimenez to 2B, Sean Burroughs to 3B, and Phil Nevin and his new contract to 1B. Ryan Klesko would then move to RF, and Damian Jackson would become a utility man. In fact, this is very close to a statement made by Padres' GM Kevin Towers. With Klesko in the outfield, it starts to get a bit crowded, so I would look for them to make another trade to unload a few guys in a two for one kind of deal either for a major bat or additional pitching help.
Trade #4: FLO - CHC This is a pretty simple trade that makes a lot of sense for the Marlins; it was not such a good idea for the Cubs. Florida unloads a rather expensive bottom of the rotation, 27-year-old lefty starter/reliever for a 25-year-old lefty pitcher who has pretty much the same skills' set, costs a whole lot less, and won't be a free agent for several more years. Teut should be able to step into the majors this year and put up pretty much the same kind of numbers that Sanchez has been providing. The Cubs gain a guy whose only advantage is a couple of years experience at the major league level. The Marlins should do pretty well for themselves once they have a full staff again if, with only a skeleton front office, they can talk Chicago into this kind of swap now. Al Avila should be promoted provided the team isn't sold, but that's a discussion for another day. Keith Foulke received a two-year contract from the White Sox on Tuesday that will buy out his two remaining years of arbitration for $4 million this year and $6 million in 2003. This is a great move for the Sox. Considering Foulke's success in the closer's role the last few years, the price is not excessive. More importantly, by agreeing in advance to a two-year deal they can avoid even thinking about the ordeal of arbitration, where the club would be forced to point out all of Foulke's problems, while the pitcher listened, in an effort to save themselves a few million dollars. Short term, that can't be good for a guy's confidence. Long term it probably puts a damper on any plans the club might have to re-sign him after he becomes a free agent. Chicago has left their options open. It is unlikely that one of their younger pitchers will be prepared to take over as closer before the end of Foulke's contract, but if they do start chomping at the bit then the relief pitcher's contract should be very conducive to a favorable trade for the Sox. For now they have a quality pitcher, well liked by their fan base (something that deserves the White Sox's attention with their disaster of a stadium), heading up their bullpen. That's everything. I know I was a little brief with a couple of the trades. Feel free to e-mail me with your questions or insights if you felt there was anything that should have been covered more thoroughly.
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