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December
6th
2001
Out of the Frying Pan
   
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NL FA Arbitration Recommendations

by Jessica Polko

Today I will be recommending which National League free agents should be offered arbitration, paying specific attention to their ranking by the Elias Sports Bureau. As most of you already know, Elias does a yearly ranking of all the players in major league baseball. These ratings are then used to determine draft pick compensation to teams who lose free agents.

Type A players, those ranked in the top 30%, mean the loss of a first round pick for the team that signs the free agent to the player's former team and a supplemental 1st round pick for that former team. Type B players, those ranked between 31-50%, mean the loss of a first round pick. Type C players, those ranked between 51-60%, give the former team a supplemental 1st round pick.

Qualifiers: A team cannot lose their first round pick if they are drafting in the first half of the first round. They instead lose their second round pick. If a team signs more than one player that would warrant the loss of their first round pick, then the picks are awarded according to the highest ranking of the players involved. For example if a team were to sign Rod Beck(A) and Scott Brosius(B), Boston would receive their first round pick and New York would receive their second round pick. Because the brackets are based on an overall ranking, you can also determine which player's former team of two A players would receive the superior compensation in a similar circumstance. For the purposes of this article, I will focus on each player's designation instead of comparing their overall rating.

The maximum number of picks you can lose or gain is only limited to the number of free agents that you lose or sign. However, in order for a team to qualify for compensation they must offer the player arbitration before the deadline. This year's deadline is December 7th. Players signed before the deadline still need to be technically offered arbitration; however they cannot accept, so there is no risk. There is no reason not to offer signed free agents arbitration. With unsigned players there is a risk that they will accept arbitration, and the team will be stuck with a player they'd rather not have or at a price at which they'd rather not have him.

There is only a cost to a team signing a free agent when that free agent is in the A or a B brackets. However, the player's former team needs to consider C ranked players because of the supplemental pick involved. If a team wants to continue contract negotiations with a player after the deadline, they must offer arbitration by the deadline; for all players below the 60% level, this is the only reason for a team to offer arbitration to them.


Arizona
The Diamondbacks should offer Danny Bautista(B) arbitration. They very much want the outfielder to return and if he does go elsewhere this way they will receive compensation.

Albie Lopez(B) should also be offered arbitration. After what Arizona gave up for him in trade, they need to receive some compensation when he leaves. Even if he accepts and somehow wins an arbitration case after losing 19 games, Arizona can likely find some team desperate for starting pitching that would be willing to deal for him.

Reggie Sanders(B) is a maybe. The team doesn't want him back at the salary for which he is looking, and there is a chance he could accept arbitration and win. However, it is more likely that he will sign with another team for more years and money, netting the Diamondbacks a draft pick.

Mike Mohler, Mike Morgan, Russ Springer, and Bobby Witt are all ranked below a C. There is no reason to offer any of these players arbitration unless the team is heavily involved in contract negotiations with one of them. Arizona has already declined Springer's option. Witt will likely retire.

Atlanta
John Burkett(A) should absolutely be offered arbitration. The Braves don't appear to have any interest in re-signing him, but given his high bracket there is no reason not to offer arbitration. On the off chance that he accepts, there should be a significant trade market for him, especially considering how many teams reportedly have interest in signing him now.

The Braves would like to re-sign Julio Franco, ranked below a C, so they need to offer arbitration if they can't complete a deal by tomorrow.

Steve Karsay(A) has practically signed with the Yankees. There is no risk to offering arbitration here; it can only lead to compensation.

Javy Lopez(A) is more complicated, since while I don't expect him to either accept arbitration or re-sign with the Braves, he might take advantage of the opportunity to return to the only team for which he's ever played. Nevertheless, the Braves should take the risk of offering it to him as it is far more likely that he'll sign elsewhere.

Whether or not Atlanta should offer Steve Reed(B) arbitration is based largely on what they know of his elbow injury. If it is overly serious, they shouldn't bother offering arbitration. He could choose to accept and take the guaranteed money, and they don't need him on their staff, especially now that Smoltz is re-signed. If other teams believe that its something that has already cleared up, then they should go ahead and offer so they can collect the compensation.

Rey Sanchez(A) is one of the few SS on the market this year and will be signed by some other club. Given his high bracket, the Braves should offer arbitration to collect the compensation.

Kurt Abbott is a below C level player who Atlanta has no interest in re-signing. There is no reason for them to offer him arbitration.

Atlanta should certainly not offer arbitration to Ken Caminiti(B) considering his extensive personal problems. If he decides to try to continue to play baseball, he might want to take the easy road and accept arbitration. The Braves don't need him on the team no matter what the salary, so they shouldn't risk it.

Bernard Gilkey is a below C level free agent and should not be offered arbitration. There is no reason for the club to want this player back. His multiple drunk-driving arrests have finally started to endanger his career.

Keith Lockhart is also below C level. Unless he fits into their plans in some previously undisclosed way, there is no reason to offer him arbitration.

Eddie Perez, who is below C level, only needs to be offered arbitration if the club is still thinking of re-signing him. I don't think he would be likely to accept, as I think he will look to move to an organization that will guaranteed him more playing time.

Rudy Seanez(B) is fairly highly ranked, but the Braves have no room for another expensive relief pitcher. They shouldn't give him the opportunity to accept arbitration, and instead should wait until July to trade for him again.

Chicago
The Cubs want to re-sign Ricky Gutierrez(A), so there is no danger in offering him arbitration. If he leaves for another team, they at least will receive compensation.

David Weathers(A) should also be offered arbitration. There would be no reason for the Cubs to be unhappy if he accepted, and if he leaves they will at least have the compensation picks to partially take the edge off the loss of Ruben Quevedo in the Weathers trade.

Rondell White(A) has garnered interest from other teams, so if Chicago can't re-sign him themselves they should at least hold onto their rights to compensation for him. Even if White accepts, the Cubs need offense badly enough to risk a guaranteed contract even with his injury history.

The Cubs shouldn't even be thinking of re-signing below C level free agent Ron Coomer, so there is no reason to offer him arbitration. Unfortunately for Cub fans, we continue to hear rumors that they'll re-sign him before the deadline.

Chicago doesn't really need Matt Stairs(B) with Fred McGriff around. Although he is worth a 1st round pick, Stairs could accept arbitration, sticking the Cubs with an overpaid, one-dimensional player for another year.

Given Kevin Tapani(B)'s probable retirement, there is no reason to offer him arbitration. His bad attitude regarding the departure of pitching coach Oscar Acosta and reluctance to take part in team conditioning drills have made him undesirable to the team.

Eric Young(A) should not be offered arbitration. While almost all players in the upper bracket are at least maybes, EY has every reason to want to stay in Chicago and could win if he were to accept arbitration. The Cubs no longer have room for him after re-signing Delino DeShields, so they shouldn't risk it.

Cincinnati
All of the Reds' free agents (Joey Hamilton, Pete Harnisch, and Jose Rijo) are rated below C level. There is no reason to offer any of them arbitration unless the club is in the middle of negotiating a contract with one of them. Rijo would definitely accept arbitration, and the others might if they can't find guaranteed money elsewhere, leaving the club more destitute than the Little Match Girl.

Colorado
Not unsurprisingly, the Rockies have no free agents below C level.

Jay Powell(B) is probably the only player to whom they should offer arbitration. He already has two solid offers on the table, so there is no reason not to collect his compensation booty.

Unless they trade Denny Neagle, Colorado has no real need to re-sign Brian Bohanon(C). At this point that trade appears to be a very distant possibility, so they shouldn't risk him possibly accepting arbitration.

Dan Miceli(B) might be tempted to accept arbitration and could win. The Rockies wouldn't want to pay him under those circumstances, so they should just let him go.

Florida has no free agents above C level. There is no reason for them to offer arbitration to Ricky Bones or John Mabry.

Houston
Moises Alou(A) should be offered arbitration. He won't accept and will receive a multi-year, guaranteed contract, probably from a team in the Northeast. The club has openly announced that they won't be re-signing him, a decision that Alou has publicly acknowledged, so there is no reason not to collect compensation for him.

Pedro Astacio(A) was injured shortly after the trade. Even if the team doesn't intend to re-sign him, they should attempt to collect the compensation. They can likely beat him in arbitration if he returns, giving them an inexpensive veteran starter to take some pressure off the Astro kids.

The team also told vinny Castilla(B) that they would not be re-signing him. There should be plenty of other clubs out there bidding on him, so there's no reason not to offer him arbitration. Even if he accepts, it's not as though they are already paying someone else a hefty salary to play 3B.

Tony Eusebio(B) should be offered arbitration. He's already garnered interest from the Yankees, so I don't think the club would be in extreme danger of him accepting. They also wouldn't mind him returning as they need a back-up for Brad Ausmus.

Mike Williams(A) will be a fairly hot commodity on the market after the top closers have signed, and Houston could re-sign him for the same reasons that they traded for him. There is no reason not to offer him arbitration.

Mike Jackson is only a C level free agent, and taking into account his late season injury might choose to accept arbitration. The club doesn't need him back after his playoff collapse, so they shouldn't risk offering.

Kent Bottenfield, Orlando Merced, Scott Servais, and Ron Villone are all below C level free agents. There is no reason to offer any of them arbitration. Bottenfield and Villone both suffered late season injuries, giving the team all the more reason not to offer.

Los Angeles
Terry Adams(A) should absolutely be offered arbitration. The Dodgers would love to have him stay, but he wants to start and to receive starting pitcher money. They'll at least receive compensation and could really profit if Adams accepts and loses his case.

James Baldwin(B) should also be offered arbitration. The team is trying to re-sign him, and even if they don't, Baldwin is the type of player that seems to gather a good amount of interest from other clubs despite an apparent lack of skill.

Some players are no-brainers for arbitration; Chan Ho Park(A) is one of them. LA hasn't finished negotiating with the pitcher, and they will at least have the compensation picks if they ultimately don't re-sign him.

While the Dodgers don't need Jeff Shaw(A) and have opted not to exercise his option, they should risk his accepting arbitration. They have no current acceptable candidates to close, and he's more likely to sign with a team closer to his Ohio home anyway.

Tim Bogar(C) was injured much of last year. LA declined his option for next year, so there isn't much of a reason to offer him arbitration. As a C level player, the risk of having him accept is not worth the reward.

Jeff Branson is listed as a free agent on the MLB site, but does not have a ranking on the BA page. I would imagine he would be below C level and as such there no reason to offer him arbitration.

Jesse Orosco is also below C level. He has been plagued with injuries in the last year, so there is no reason to offer him arbitration especially as he's been pitching since around the Paleozoic Era.

Milwaukee
There is no reason for the Brewers to offer any of their free agents arbitration.

Mark Leiter(C) has had injury problems. The last thing Milwaukee needs is another injured pitcher. They should not offer him arbitration.

James Mouton and Lance Painter are both below C level free agents and suffered from injuries last season. There is no reason to offer either arbitration.

Devon White(C) wants more money than the Brewers are willing to pay. As such, there is no reason for them to risk him accepting arbitration for a sandwich pick.

Montreal has no free agents above C level. There is no good reason to re-sign Rob Ducey, Randy Knorr, or Bob Scanlan.

New York has no free agents. Steve Phillips won the immunity necklace this round.

Philadelphia
Ricky Bottalico(A) should be offered arbitration. The Phillies are still trying to re-sign him, and even if they don't accomplish it, there is enough outside interest that they should secure compensation.

Dennis Cook(C) and Todd Pratt(C) do not need to be offered arbitration. Both Cook and Pratt are older, somewhat injury-prone, and have slumped in recent years. The Phillies can definitely find younger players to replace them, so shouldn't risk either accepting an offer.

Pittsburgh
Josias Manzanillo(A) should be offered arbitration. The Pirates should attempt to keep him in Pittsburgh, but at the very least they should receive compensation from the team that steals him.

Francisco Cordova and Omar Olivares are both below C level free agents. Neither should be offered arbitration. Cordova just went through Tommy John surgery, and there's nothing special about Olivares.

St. Louis
Mike James(C) should be offered arbitration. The Cardinals always seem to be looking for bullpen help, so either they re-sign him or get an extra pick.

Craig Paquette(C) should also be offered arbitration. Tony LaRussa has given other teams the impression that Paquette is quite a catch, and even if no one falls for the gamble, the Cardinals can likely find some team foolish enough to trade for him.

There is no reason to offer arbitration to Bobby Bonilla, Carlos Hernandez, or T.J. Mathews, all of who are below C level free agents.

San Diego
The Padres should offer Rickey Henderson(C) arbitration only if they want him back next season. He would like to play for a little while longer, and accepting an arbitration offer might be the only way to force a team to sign him.

Chuck McElroy is a below C level free agent and doesn't need to be offered arbitration.

San Francisco
Barry Bonds(A) is another no-brainer for arbitration. The club is still negotiating with him, he'd never accept, and San Francisco could certainly use the extra draft picks.

The Giants have been negotiating with Benito Santiago(A), so they should offer him arbitration. Although talks have not progressed well, his high bracket makes the gesture attractive.

Jason Schmidt(B) is not likely to re-sign with Frisco, but there's no reason not to offer him arbitration. Many other teams, including the Yankees, have interest in signing him, and they might even be able to win the hearing by focusing on his injury history.

Andres Galarraga(B) should only be offered arbitration if the Giants want him back in 2002. The trouble with offering players nearing the end of their careers arbitration is that they will frequently accept it to stay in the game.

Mark Gardner(C) only needs to be offered arbitration if the Giants are in the process of negotiating a contract with him.

A lot of this may seem pretty obvious, but over the years I've been amazed at how reticent clubs are to offer players arbitration when there appears to be very little risk and a considerable amount for them to gain. Some of this can be unclear to those unfamiliar with the process. Please feel free to e-mail me your questions or opinions of any of these recommendations at the below address.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
 
 
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