While contraction has slowed the off-season transactions down to a trickle compared to years past, the rumor mills are at peak production levels. I've thus far shied away from commenting on the majority of these rumors, except when they fit well with some substantial new story. However as Tim pointed out to me, the reason every columnist writes about this stuff is because it's fun: fun to write and fun to read. Besides if I report a rumor and then the rumor becomes fact, I look really smart.

Free Agent Rumors

A rumor article wouldn't be complete without a mention of Jason Giambi, this off-season's leading gossip generator. We've all heard that the New York Yankees have a lot of money and that they would be more than happy to turn a sizable portion of that cash over to Giambi (if he would agree to come to New York and help them climb out of the darkness that descended upon the club in November). However, even with all of the celebrity telemarketers the Yankees have employed, there is still some hope that Giambi will return to Oakland.

The Athletics appeared to have pretty much thrown in the towel before the auction really got off the ground when they announced that their offer of $91 million for 6 years (with a no-trade clause) would be the last one from Oakland. Now there have been reports that the club might be willing to add a 7th year to the contract that would bump the total dollar amount up to $105 million. New York hasn't made any proposals yet, but hearsay has it that they are waffling between offering $119M for 7 or $111M for 6.

Oakland is not going to offer as much as the Yankees are willing to pay, but if they add the extra year to the contract they may be close enough that Giambi will give them a small discount to stay on the team with which he broke into the majors, for which his brother plays, and that is located near the home of his fiancé.

Giambi has also discussed St. Louis as a potential destination for his talents. In fact a few weeks ago I was inclined to believe the Cardinals might be a serious possibility due to Giambi's relationship with Mark McGwire. At this point, I think the only reason their name is still being tossed around is to generate a greater sense of competition over the slugger.

I'd like him to return to Oakland, although I think the team will at least need to add the 7th year to the deal before it becomes reasonably likely. I don't think New York really even needs him; they should let their young players start in the infield and if they feel they need another big bat, they should find an outfielder.

The Yankees, as you would expect given the size of their pocket books, are not limiting themselves to pursuing Giambi. John Smoltz, who everyone thought just a few weeks ago would remain with the Braves, has become a target of the pinstriped devils. Not only will they be offering him big money (current rumor: $52 million for 4), the Yankees would want Smoltz to start. Atlanta would really like Smoltz to stay in the closing role in which he excelled after returning from Tommy John surgery. Other teams (Arizona, Boston, Philly, and Texas) might be interested in Smoltz as a starter, but the Yankees can pay more for his services.

Meanwhile, Arizona has expressed interest in David Wells. There are certainly injury concerns, but if you thought Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling were a good start to a rotation, imagine Wells in that mix. Wells has also received calls from the Yankees and Rangers, although I wouldn't expect him to land in New York. They have enough injury concerns already on their staff. If Texas decides Wells is who they want, I believe they could very easily sign him. Even though the Rangers have A-Rod's contract to worry about, they have more payroll flexibility than the Diamondbacks. An extreme long shot possibility would be Tampa Bay. They have a weakness for "proven veterans", Wells would put fannies in the seats, and interestingly enough the hefty lefty already lives in Florida.

Based on reports in the Chicago papers, the Cubs are on the verge of re-signing Delino DeShields to a one-year deal. Eric Young now will definitely have to look elsewhere for employment. Ricky Gutierrez is also slightly less likely to return since he really enjoyed playing with EY.

For the rest of the free agents, the rumors either haven't really changed since I put out my estimations on where they might land, or I've recently mentioned some of their possible destinations in other articles, i.e. Juan Gonzalez to the Mets.

Contract Rumors

Billy Wagner should be the best reliever on the market next year if he doesn't re-sign before free agency. Despite elbow surgery last off-season, he is still among a small group of established closers. Houston needs to keep in mind that the nature of their new ballpark is not going to be attractive for free agent pitchers and lock him up now. Rumor has it they have offered $20 million for 3 years. I think they will need to up the dollar figure and add a year to the deal before it will get signed. Trevor Hoffman's contract of $32 million for four years still defines top closer deals.

Following the recent pattern of buying out a players arbitration years with multi-year contracts, the Indians have set out to work on a long term contract with C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia has good reasons to jump at and to pass on a long-term deal now; both revolve around his injury risk. If he signs now when there is some concern over potential arm problems developing from his large workload, he could sell himself short. Waiting until after he's gone a few years without health issues, while continuing to perform exceptionally like he did in 2001, could provide him with the opportunity to rake in massive piles of cash. However if he waits and then suffers from a major arm injury, he won't have the luxury of guaranteed money. No potential dollar amounts for a current long-term deal have reached the public.

Trade Rumors

There have been more trade rumors involving Dmitri Young than available Harry Potter merchandise. A deal that would have sent him to Baltimore fell apart just a few days ago. He will probably be traded before the start of the season, most likely by the end of the winter meetings.

Jeff Cirillo is being shopped by the Rockies, and he personally doesn't believe he will be with the team when they break camp in the spring. The most interesting rumor relating to Cirillo is that he would be willing to defer money from his contract in order to play for the Seattle Mariners.

Many other rumors include the Mets' interest in trading for a big bat in the outfield, but in general the trade market has suffered from the same contraction-related slow down that is afflicting the free agent market. I've discussed several of the more dominant rumors in past articles.

That's it for today's name-dropping gossip session. I've tried to stay with some of the more likely scenarios and avoid those rumors that appeared to have been generated because Peter Gammons is collecting data on the average gullibility of ESPN.com's readers. I suspect that we will have real news to analyze next week as signings pick up, but if things slow down again, you can expect to see an update of this article in a couple weeks.