November 19th 2001 |
Out of the Frying Pan |
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by Jessica Polko Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi are the two biggest free agents on the market in 2001. Bonds just set the single season home run record and put up incredible numbers across the board. However at 37, he is a good 6.5 years older than Giambi, who turns 31 in January. He wants at least a 4-year deal and will be looking for around $20 million annually. There are very few clubs who can afford to plunk that much cash down for an aging outfielder and fewer still who are going to want to do so. The best bet might be for him to accept a slightly lower offer and stay in San Francisco. Jason Giambi should be re-signed by the Athletics, but at this point that seems highly unlikely. The San Francisco Chronicle reported on Sunday that $91/6 (with the no-trade clause) was their best offer. St. Louis is my pick to sign Giambi. Mark McGwire's retirement opens up his position and money on the Cardinal roster. McGwire and Giambi have been friends since Mark's Oakland days, and he is somewhat of a mentor to Jason. There as been a lot of talk about the Yankees trotting out truckloads of currency to procure Giambi, but newly re-signed Brian Cashman is one of the most intelligent GM's in the game today. Despite owner George Steinbrenner's want-it take-it tendencies, I think that Cashman will realize that they have a quality rookie almost ready to move into the 1B roster spot in Nick Johnson. Blocking him doesn't make a great deal of sense. The Yankees should concentrate instead on picking up one of the middle dollar OF free agents to solidify their lineup. Moises Alou has been told that Houston will not re-sign him. Elsewhere, there is quite a lot of demand for him although as I see it the best fit seems to be with Cleveland. Even if they fill their center field spot with Milton Bradley, they will still need a free agent outfielder and preferably one with some power in his bat. Colorado has been thinking about Alou but remains burdened by some questionable contracts. If the Giants don't re-sign Bonds, they will pursue him heavily. Johnny Damon would be a great sign for the Yankees provided they don't obtain Giambi. With Knoblauch leaving they will need an OF, and unlike Giambi at 1B, Damon would not be blocking a younger player. Houston and LA are other possible bidders. Damon could slide into the 2 spot in the lineup between Biggio and Bagwell, and the Astros would be able to pull the trigger on a trade of Daryle Ward for help in other areas. If LA could find the money, Damon would be a useful upgrade for them in centerfield. Baltimore is another legitimate option. The Orioles are looking for a bat and have money to spend. Detroit is the dark horse. The Tigers need an OF with Roger Cedeno leaving, but probably won't bid as high as some of the other teams. Juan Gonzalez could be left signing with whatever teams are left out of the Alou/Damon sweepstakes. His uninsurable back may also prohibit a deal with a lot of years in it. One team not mentioned above that might have interest in Gonzalez is Texas, but the Rangers will focus on acquiring pitching over offense. Conversely, Detroit and Cleveland are two places where you will not see him. Bret Boone had the best year of his career in 2001, contributing significantly to the amazing Seattle season. It is highly improbable that the Mariners will allow him to leave. Boone fits extremely well in their lineup and has become a fan favorite and clubhouse leader. On the off chance they do let him go, multiple teams will jump at him as one of the few quality infielders in this year's free agent class. Those jumping the highest would be the Yankees (while moving Soriano to LF), Texas, and the Chicago Cubs. Roger Cedeno will definitely not be back with the Tigers, who inexcusably benched him just to save a few grand in incentives. He is the formulaic leadoff hitter that every club seems to want. Seattle's name continues to be mentioned as having interest in making him their new left fielder. Two other possibilities are the Red Sox and the Indians. I hesitate to speculate on anything Boston might do; GM Dan Duquette has always been somewhat erratic and since contraction talk began in earnest he's become even more unpredictable. Even if it was simpler to anticipate Duquette, there would still be a problem as his job has been on the line for a while now. However, they still want a quality lead-off guy, and Cedeno would allow them to painlessly give away Carl Everett. Cleveland needs a new lead-off hitter with the imminent departure of Kenny Lofton and could certainly use another outfielder, but I think they would be better off trying Bradley to fill that role and looking for power on the free agent market (see Alou). Kenny Lofton, despite his age and injury history, could attract significantly more attention than Roger Cedeno as a proven veteran. The Yankees and Tigers are just two teams who might be drawn to his predictability. Javy Lopez's departure is one likely consequence of budget cuts in Atlanta. Team owner AOL/Time-Warner is looking to shrink payroll, and Lopez may be the easiest way to do that. He has suffered from injuries that have kept him on the DL for much of the last two seasons. This should partially reduce his price, leading to an excellent bargain for the team that does sign the catcher. Baltimore could use a big bat and is weak behind the plate. As previously mentioned, the Orioles have money available to throw at free agents. A more interesting opportunity for Lopez would be to sign with the Rockies, who have been extremely unhappy with the performance of the young Ben Petrick. Javy in Coors could put up some really fun numbers. Charles Johnson still has until Tuesday to opt out of his long-term deal with the Marlins. Keep an eye out for his decision. Tomorrow, I should be able to get to a good number of the free agents that weren't covered in either today or yesterday's articles.
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