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December 31st 2014 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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Our Philosophy |
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by Tim Polko 2014 Major League Rule Five Draft Review Upon ascending to closing duties with the Cubs, last year Hector Rondon joined Everth Cabrera as the only true impact players selected in this draft since the 2006 rule change restricting the pool of eligible players. Of course, Cabrera quickly plummeted from a roto stud into irrelevance over scarcely more than a season, leading to his recent non-tendering with the Padres, and the Cubs won't hesitate to demote Rondon if his skill level falters. While a few players, including Ryan Flaherty and Josh Fields, still could develop into significant fantasy assets, most teams have realized little value from Rule 5 picks over the last decade. Yet despite the meager gains achieved in recent years, plenty of opportunities remain, with both a few high-risk, high-upside players and a wealth of potential complementary options still seemingly available every draft. As always, teams generally should target pitchers who spent 2014 no lower than high-A, then slot the youngsters in long relief, as lefty specialists, or even in middle or short relief if the pitcher's performance warrants. Selecting reasonably high-upside prospects adds even more value to such picks. Ideally, teams probably should select one backup position player at a position of need and then two pitchers, one right-hander and one southpaw, though I won't fault an organization for taking a flyer on a higher-upside prospect if a reasonable basis for that pick exists. Of the modern low of nine players selected in last year's draft, only three stuck in the majors. However, that 33% compares favorably with several recent classes despite not matching the 40% of successful 2012 picks or the 42% of 2011 picks that remained in the majors. Previous classes enjoyed far less relative success, such as the 26%(5/19) success rate in 2010, 29%(5/17) in 2009, 24%(5/21) in 2008, and 28%(5/18) in 2007. Unfortunately, Wei-Chung Wang contributed very little value to the Brewers, and while Adrian Nieto and Tommy Kahnle didn't embarrass themselves in secondary roles, neither appears set to emerge as a useful regular any time soon. Thankfully, with teams returning to a more normal 15 selections this year, many more opportunities appear present for Rule 5 success, especially with a couple of actual high-upside prospects in these ranks. Looking back over the past several classes, I can't find one that offers this particular mix of potential fantasy impact over the next few seasons, beginning with Arizona's gamble on an intriguing catcher who just might win the starting job in spring training.
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2014: 66%. Oscar Hernandez spent 2014 in the Midwest League, while 31-year-old Tuffy Gosewisch, the only other catcher on Arizona's 40-man roster following the bizarre trade of Miguel Montero, played in the majors, his seventh straight season above A-ball. Despite this vast difference in level and experience, multiple projection systems currently expect Hernandez to perform slightly better at the plate in the majors next season than the veteran backup. Reports generally rave about his defense and even his game-calling abilities, but nothing here indicates that Hernandez even can match the Rule 5 debut of Adrian Nieto this past season, who hit much better at a higher level prior to his selection. Hernandez probably should spend the season caddying for and maybe platooning with a veteran LH catcher, before playing everyday in the upper minors in 2016 and finally replacing the veteran the following season. Of course, the Diamondbacks possessed someone with that exact profile and just gave him away to the Cubs, so maybe they'll run out Hernandez for 120 games for lack of a better option. Unlike Gosewisch, at least Hernandez's youth gives him some long-term potential and an outside shot at contributing positive value sooner than 2019, the first year I'd expect him to reach that status if not for his selection here. Fantasy Outlook: Hernandez may be ready to catch in the majors, but nothing here suggests he's ready to hit there. While he could smack double-digit homers in regular playing time, his likely failure to exceed the Mendoza Line by any notable amount will keep his maximum fantasy value in the very low single digits.
Traded to Oakland for Austin House and cash. Austin House struck out 79 batters this summer in less than 55 IP, though as a 23-year-old in high-A, that accomplishment doesn't offer nearly as much immediate upside for Oakland as this nearly 26-year-old 1B, who's spent each of the past five seasons methodically progressing through each level of the minors. Canha mainly looks like a younger version of 2013 selection Nate Freiman, albeit with comparable upside to recent $30M signee Billy Butler. Nothing here suggests Canha can hit 30 HR - even in a full-time role - especially in Oakland, where the Athletics seem quite uninterested in letting any rookie RH hitter receive everyday at-bats. Expect a perfectly pedestrian dozen home runs with a league average BA from Canha, and maybe a little better overall performance if limited to a strict platoon with new starting LH 1B Ike Davis. All that said, Bob Uecker also appears among his top comps, so projecting a decent floor for his averages seems foolish. Fantasy Outlook: Canha doesn't merit any significant investment, but for anyone looking for a little pop from a UT or bench position (or a potential platoon bat in sim leagues), you probably won't hurt your team by grabbing him in the late rounds. Only an awful spring should send him back to the Marlins, where Michael Morse and Justin Bour would block him rather thoroughly.
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2014: 70% (90% somewhere). Pitchers normally dominate the Rule 5 draft, but DeShields' selection makes 2014 the first time with three position players taken at the beginning of the draft in no less than fifteen years. Lil' Bop looks like a potential steal (#punalert) as the son of a 13-year veteran, the 8th overall pick in 2010, and the only player in minor league history ever to hit 10 homers while swiping 100 bases in one season. DeShields may struggle at the plate and lack a firm defensive home, but his game-breaking speed and position flexibility make him an intriguing asset, especially on a team with as many offensive questions as the Rangers. Fantasy Outlook: If given everyday playing time, most likely as the Texas LF due to the club's other equally unproven current options out there, DeShields could cruise past $20 of fantasy value and make a run (#onemorepun) at Billy Hamilton's SB total (or at least Jarrod Dyson's mark). If nothing else, he could serve as an intriguing platoon partner for Leonys Martin in center. Do not view Houston's failure to protect DeShields, even with room on their 40-man roster, as an indictment of his true upside. While he didn't possess the preferred skill set for the Astros, the Royals demonstrated how even a manager of questionable tactical acumen could deploy a speedster to great effect (and potentially very significant fantasy value in any format that doesn't emphasize OBP).
Sold to Baltimore. When Garcia returned from his 2013 Tommy John surgery last summer, he eventually shifted to the bullpen and started blowing the ball by hitters with triple-digit heat. Combined with his strong groundball tendency, that profile makes him a surprisingly strong candidate to manage the jump from A-ball to the majors successfully. However, Garcia will need significant - and probably literal - breaks to make the Orioles, a club with few high-upside pitchers but plenty of depth. He enters camp ranked no higher than tenth among bullpen candidates in Baltimore, and the team's recent surge into contention leaves them less likely to tolerate Rule 5 growing pains (despite T.J. McFarland's previous selection and emergence into a reliable relief option). Garcia may stick in the majors somewhere, but the Orioles just don't look like a great fit for him at this time. Fantasy Outlook: With little chance of seeing meaningful late innings, even if dealt somewhere with less bullpen depth, Garcia really doesn't belong on your fantasy radar at this time. He could emerge as a mid-season sim league option, but he'll need to gain his manager's confidence and put together at least six solid weeks of high-skill innings before we consider him in any of our leagues.
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2014: 75%. For an organization with as little upper-level pitching depth as the Braves, Graham's exposure to the Rule 5 draft, only two years after he ranked among the club's top three prospects, simply baffles me. However, following a solid April, he admittedly posted an ERA no lower than 6.00 in each of the next four months, climbing all the way to a 7.88 mark in August after his move to the bullpen. Shoulder problems in 2012 curtailed his stuff, but the Twins specialize in soft-tossing groundballers, and Minnesota's selection of Ryan Pressly two years ago provides the best blueprint here. Graham appears in direct competition with Pressly, NRI Anthony Swarzak, and a few other options for the last spot in the bullpen, and if Graham looks solid in camp, I see no reason the club shouldn't give him a long look during the first half (before a potential roster-saving DL stint after 90 days in the majors) Fantasy Outlook: Echoing Pressly or even Swarzak's previous role, Graham easily could pitch 80+ innings as the mop-up man, so he just might wind up providing a lot of relatively low-risk innings as short-term roster filler. Unfortunately, with at least eight guys ahead of him in the rotation and five more effective arms in the pen, he appears unlikely to accumulate many wins, saves, or strikeouts, minimizing his value in any except the deepest of sim leagues.
Sold to Kansas City. Perhaps the highest-risk, highest-upside selection in the draft, Gustave easily could implode early in spring training and return to Houston by the Ides of March. Conversely, his 100 MPH fastball and improving slider instead could make him the new Joakim Soria, especially after posting a tantalizing .78 ERA and 20:4 K:BB in 23 IP with 16 H and 0 HR in 9 relief outings last year. Right now, he appears well behind Louis Coleman and Brandon Finnegan for the only open spot in the Royals' bullpen. However, with Finnegan likely heading to start in the minors and Coleman lacking consistently, Gustave easily could leapfrog the young veterans to claim the job. His chances just seem much more likely if KC deals someone like Holland, though I still think some team will gamble on giving Gustave a month in the majors even if he departs the Royals. Fantasy Outlook: Wait to see if Gustave can manage to secure both a consistent role and some high-upside skill ratios before considering him for any of your teams. While he certainly possesses plenty of potential, he probably also needs a couple more years in the minors, pushing his risk factor far above the tolerance of most owners.
Sold to Los Angeles(A). Following the trades of Howie Kendrick and Taylor Lindsey, the Angels desperately needed to replenish their MIF depth, and while adding Josh Rutledge from the Rockies probably fills the open 2B starting job, Featherston should get a shot to challenge him. While Featherston seems remarkably similar to a right-handed Ryan Flaherty and therefore doesn't offer tremendous potential, he appears a much better fit for the LA bench than someone like Grant Green, thanks to his ability to handle both middle infield positions. With decent speed and power, his skill set seems to match up nicely with Mike Scioscia's normal utility infielder profile. Fantasy Outlook: A good spring could lead to a starting job that results in a surprising double-digit value season, but between his likely BA and OBP issues and Rutledge's superior upside, I wouldn't gamble on Featherston as anything more than a late-round MIF flyer in traditional roto leagues.
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2014: 95%. The fifth and final position player selected in this draft, Herrera seems better prepared for success than Michael Martinez, the last Rule 5 position player who stuck with the Phillies. With experience at short, second, center, and left, along with a little speed and respectable plate discipline, Herrera appears a solid option to back up Chase Utley and Freddy Galvis in the middle infield (with 2B easily looking like his best position). While Philadelphia certainly might opt to keep a veteran like Cesar Hernandez instead, the entire bench appears unsettled at the moment, providing Herrera with a clean shot at a major league job if he doesn't faceplant in spring training. Fantasy Outlook: Any significant injury to Utley could push Herrera right into the starting lineup, though even in that scenario, he lacks the power and BA upside to contribute more than minimal fantasy value. An OPS under .650 isn't the fantasy death sentence of a decade ago, but for a player without obvious plus speed, Herrera will need to show much more than I currently expect from him to merit any consideration beyond that of short-term roster filler.
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2014: 70%. With no established LH reliever on their big league roster, McKirahan probably would fit better with the Cubs than almost any other team, and yet the club didn't protect him, leaving Miami this chance to grab a potentially major league-ready bullpen asset. Of course, with Mike Dunn and Brad Hand already slotted for the Marlins' relief corps, McKirahan may end up somewhere else, but given his command and groundball skills, I see no reason why he shouldn't merit a roster slot for most of the year. Somewhat ironically for a draft better known for producing LOOGYs, McKirahan's reverse platoon split actually makes him a better option for a more flexible manager less likely to pigeonhole him into a narrow role. Fantasy Outlook: Even if he winds up with a manager willing to run him out there for an inning at a time, McKirahan appears highly unlikely to possess any roto value outside of very deep sim leagues. He'll need a great spring to merit any serious fantasy consideration prior to mid-season.
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2014: 30%. Having only relieved in one game as a professional since his selection by the Braves in the first round of the 2011 draft, Gilmartin now will compete to join perhaps the deepest rotation in the game, with six established veterans and three more high-upside prospects all ahead of him on the New York depth chart. While he certainly will receive a shot to stick as the second lefty in the Mets' bullpen, Gilmartin's finesse repertoire leaves him somewhat ill-suited to that role. He might have fit nicely on half the rosters in the majors, and he could find a job as the lefty that enters games after one of the higher-upside young RH starters struggles, but he'll need a great camp to make the majors and still easily could lose his roster spot at any time. Fantasy Outlook: We selected Gilmartin in an NL sim league when he shot to AAA by the end of his first full season, though we also subsequently traded him at just the right time before his awful 2013 campaign, subsequent trade to the Twins, and unimpressive 2014 season. While his command makes him a better gamble than many pitchers, definitely wait to see how (and if) the Mets use him before even considering him as roster filler.
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2014: 90%. Having known little about Winkler prior to researching this article, I expected to hate this pick (like many of Atlanta's other recent moves), mostly because Winkler just underwent Tommy John surgery in June. However, Winkler's impressive skill set suggests he could emerge as a surprisingly valuable asset. Now the Braves face the problem that Winkler needs to join the active roster by the beginning of July to avoid a second season of Rule 5 restrictions, making this pick a rather risky gamble. If he can sufficiently rehab his elbow in time, Atlanta only really needs to keep him as their twelfth pitcher for two months prior to expanded rosters. Winkler's upside definitely merits that opportunity on a rebuilding team, especially if he somehow regains his command from last spring. Even if he's not healthy at the end of June, I won't be surprised if the Braves attempt to let him contend for a starting job in the spring of 2016, regardless of his Rule 5 status. Fantasy Outlook: Removed from the prospect of spending half of every season in Coors Fields, Winkler's long-term upside received a rather dramatic boost with this pick, albeit not one that will merit any fantasy consideration whatsoever until he demonstrates both good health and an ability to retire major league hitters consistently.
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2014: 75%. Seattle's selection of Rollins makes him the third and final player lost in this draft by Houston, all of whom possess the capability to contribute in the majors this year; the Astros' decision to expose this many players worthy of selection ranks as the final questionable move in an awful year for the club's front office. Both DeShields and Gustave will receive very long looks this spring, and Rollins possesses the profile to stick in some team's bullpen. He also owns the skills to succeed as a lefty specialist after his dominant performance against lefties in the Texas League this summer(1.83 ERA on a 32:6 K:BB in 19.2 IP). However, unless J.A. Happ, somewhat ironically traded to Toronto in a deal involving Rollins in 2012, wins a rotation spot, the Mariners don't seem an ideal fit for Rollins, though he certainly would enjoy a better chance of success in Safeco than in most other parks. Fantasy Outlook: If Happ does return to the rotation, Rollins should enjoy a quietly productive year, albeit one only suited to sim leagues and not worthy of consideration as more than short-term roster filler in any traditional roto format.
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2014: 20%. I don't fault the Orioles for gambling in the Rule 5 draft - they rank among the most effective teams here since hiring Dan Duquette as GM - yet Verrett looks like the kind of end-of-the-rotation arm best suited for a club like the White Sox, Tigers, Braves, Reds, or Phillies. Right now Baltimore's roster includes six established starters, along with a few more solid upper-level SP prospects, so barring both an unexpected trade of someone like Ubaldo Jimenez and a spring training injury to someone else, Verrett probably won't make the club. The White Sox and Reds also passed rather than select him, leaving Vereitt with rather slim odds of spending next summer anywhere other than a return engagement with the Mets in Las Vegas, pitching for one of the only clubs with even more MLB-ready pitching depth than the Orioles. Fantasy Outlook: Verrett looks like the lone Rule 5 selection reasonably capable of opening the year in a big league rotation, so if he somehow secures that role with Baltimore, he'll merit some consideration as an endgame flyer, with a chance to win a dozen games in front of the Orioles' excellent defense. Of course, I still expect the club will cut him before the end of camp, and as anything other than a SP option in leagues with a deep and flexible bench, Verrett won't belong anywhere near your active roster.
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2014: 70%. A second round pick in 2009 and former top prospect with the Tigers, Oliver headed to the Pirates at the end of 2012 and finally settled into a full-time role as a reliever this season. He blossomed in shorter outings and managed a particularly impressive 1.74 ERA on a 27:13 K:BB in 20.2 IP with only 9 H and 0 HR against lefties. Despite definite concerns about his control, a high walk rate isn't always a problem for specialists who strike out more than a batter per inning and allow few hits and no homers. Both Wesley Wright and Craig Breslow signed for contracts around $2M, and I won't be surprised if Oliver comfortably outpitches both of them for a quarter of the cost. Philadelphia even made room for him by dealing Antonio Bastardo to the Pirates, and he possesses a remarkably similar profile to Bastardo. Barring an awful camp, Oliver should win a job in the Phillies' bullpen and could post surprisingly strong numbers in a limited role. Fantasy Outlook: Despite the potential strikeouts, Oliver won't accumulate many wins or saves. Ryne Sandberg also may be tempted to run him out as a long reliever. Given all those variables, Oliver probably possesses far more value on the field than in any fantasy league, where he probably won't belong on the roster of anyone except the few owners who might need a strikeout boost from a designated RP.
Aside from DeShields, only Canha and Featherston really should appear on most fantasy draft lists, albeit back near the Dollar Days guys. While I expect 5-6 players to stick from this class (and projected a full 11 with a better-than-average chance of remaining in the majors, given the mostly solid matchups of pitcher skill and team need), even sim league owners probably won't net positive value from more than maybe one of these pitchers. I expect at least three of Herrera, DeShields, Winkler, and Canha to stick with their new clubs at this time, along with at least two guys from among the next tier of Graham, Rollins, Featherston, McKirahan, Oliver, and Hernandez. Anyone else definitely would qualify as a surprise, and additional roster churn over the next three months could drop the likely net projected fantasy value of this Rule 5 class down near zero, unfortunately placing it right in line with the unimpressive 2013 class.
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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com. |
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