Today's Fantasy Rx

2011 Major League Rule Five Draft Review

While the current iteration of the Rule 5 draft lacks both the pizzazz and depth of the drafts that included MLB award winners like Johan Santana, Joakim Soria, and Josh Hamilton, we continue to believe that the Rule 5 draft remains a great chance for teams to add roster depth by targeting position players from AAA or AA to fill secondary roles, such as backup catcher, utility infielder, and reserve outfielder.

Teams generally should target pitchers who spent 2011 no lower than high-A, then slot the youngsters in long relief, as lefty specialists, or even in middle or short relief if the pitcher's performance warrants. Selecting reasonably high-upside prospects adds even more value to such picks. Ideally, teams probably should select one backup position player at a position of need and then two pitchers, one right-hander and one southpaw. While several of the selected players almost certainly will fail to remain with their new teams, and no team drafted into the optional second round, a few teams potentially found very useful hidden gems despite increasing industry skepticism regarding the raison d'etre for the draft altogether.

Round One

1. Houston: Rhiner Cruz, RH Reliever, NYM; 25, B:R, T:R.
3-2 and 7 Saves on a 51:39 K:BB in 58.2 IP over 36 G
With 43 H, 4 HR, a 1.09 G-F, and a 4.14 ERA for AA Binghamton(EL).
2-1 on an 18:6 K:BB in 13 IP over 8 G
With 9 H, 1 HR, a .63 G-F, and a 2.77 ERA for A+ St. Lucie(FSL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2012: 33%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: As a hard-throwing right-handed reliever with control issues, Cruz appears no different than dozens of other comparable prospects. Originally signed by the Tigers in 2003, released by Detroit in 2006, and signed by the Mets the following winter, Cruz already has racked up seven years of professional experience without sustaining an acceptable level of command for any length of time. While his career 8.5 K/9 impresses, nothing else here suggests much upside.

Apparently his 1.41 ERA in 18.1 IP over 21 G in the Dominican Winter League caught the eye of an Astros' scout, but Cruz suffered from the same command issues as usual (17:10 K:BB). Houston Interim GM Dave Gottfried seemingly authorized this pick, and though the new Jeff Luhnow regime certainly could give Cruz a long look (with only four members of the big league bullpen reasonably established in the majors), nothing here makes me think Cruz will contribute positive value in any fantasy format. Only roster him on teams desperate for strikeouts and capable of absorbing WHIP hits.

2. Minnesota: Terry Doyle, RH Starter, CHW; 26, B:R, T:R.
7-5 on a 73:22 K:BB in 100 IP over 15 GS
with 91 H, 8 HR, a 1.70 G-F, and a 3.24 ERA for AA Birmingham(SL).
1-5 on a 49:11 K:BB in 73 IP over 11 GS
with 71 H, 3 HR, a 2.29 G-F, and a 2.84 ERA for A+ Winston-Salem(Car).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2012: 75%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Only three AL teams received less innings from their starters last year than the Twins, and adding Jason Marquis alone will not solve that issue. Minnesota also lacks more than a semblance of a veteran relief corps, with only closer Matt Capps and southpaws Glen Perkins and Brian Duensing looking like certain bets for jobs. Somehow the Twins found one of the only decent MLB-ready prospects on the White Sox, with everything about his control/groundball combo just screaming "TWINS PITCHER", and although Doyle will not be a star by any stretch, he could perform very serviceably in the role intended for Kevin Slowey and then Anthony Swarzak last year.

With Doyle also impressing in the AFL with a 1.98 ERA on a 22:5 K:BB in 27.1 IP, he should receive every opportunity to succeed on the Twins. However, with nine pitchers currently slotted ahead of him on the SP depth chart, he likely will head straight to the bullpen this spring and probably will not get a chance to bust out his Nick Blackburn starter package skills. Doyle should not hurt most fantasy teams in short stretches of use, but unless you want to gamble on his potential to vulture wins, he just doesn't offer much upside.

3.Seattle: Lucas Luetge, LH Reliever, MIL; 24, B:L, T:L.
1-3 and 3 Saves on a 69:23 K:BB in 69 IP over 1 GS(46G)
with 63 H, 3 HR, a 1.81 G-F, and a 3.13 ERA for AA Huntsville(SL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2012: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: Jack Zdurencik went back to his old stomping grounds to land this lefty, but I would have liked this pick much more before the Mariners added George Sherrill and Hong-chih Kuo to a LH relief corps that already included Charlie Furbush and Cesar Jimenez. Of course, Seattle probably will send Furbush to the Tacoma rotation, and Jimenez has not impressed in brief looks, so Luetge likely only needs a not-improbable injury to Sherrill or Kuo to break camp in the majors.

Keeping his roster spot all year will prove more difficult, though after the Tom Wilhelmsen and Josh Lueke sagas last year, even the Mariners probably do not know what their bullpen will look like. I see no reason Luetge cannot follow in 2010 Rule 5 pick Joe Paterson's footsteps to LOOGY glory on a team with enough pitching to surprise this summer.

4. Baltimore: Ryan Flaherty, IF/OF, CHC; 25, B:L, T:R.
41/173 for .237/.277/.399 with 5 HR, 22 RBI, 22 R, a 1/1 SB%,
and a 10:44 BB:K for AAA Iowa(PCL).
92/302 for .305/.384/.523 with 14 HR, 66 RBI, 52 R, a 4/10 SB%,
and a 40:55 BB:K for AA Tennessee(SL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2012: 90%.
Probable Role if Kept: Utilityman and frequent spot starter.
Fantasy Potential: Flaherty's AAA faceplant probably kept him off the Cubs' 40-man roster, and only that failure concerns me at all. He clearly rebounded after encountering similar second half struggles with Tennessee upon his promotion from A+ in 2010, so if Flaherty really just needed another year to adjust to a higher level of competition, the Cubs will regret allocating his roster slot to a future backup like Darwin Barney. Flaherty played at least a dozen games last year at 2B, 3B, SS, LF, and RF, making him an extremely accomplished utilityman for his age and a perfect fit to join Robert Andino on the top step of the Orioles' dugout, eagerly awaiting Brian Roberts' next inevitable injury.

With a career .808 OPS in 1670 minor league at-bats, along with tremendous positional flexibility and good plate discipline, Flaherty ranks as both the most likely Rule 5 pick to stick in the majors and the best bet to accumulate any real fantasy value. His high strikeouts might not belong in a lineup with so many other free swingers, but he also could emerge as a LH Dan Uggla, who owned a surprisingly similar profile before taking full advantage of a shot with the Marlins and charging toward a $20 season as a rookie. Don't forget about Flaherty when searching to fill a MIF slot in the endgame.

5. Kansas City: Cesar Cabral, LH Reliever, BOS; 23, B:L, T:L.
Sold to the Yankees.
2-4 and 1 Save on a 46:16 K:BB in 38.1 IP over 24 G
with 41 H, 3 HR, a 2.73 G-F, and a 3.52 ERA for AA Portland(EL).
1-0 and 8 Saves on a 24:5 K:BB in 16.2 IP over 12 G
with 15 H, 0 HR, 2.29 G-F, and a 1.62 ERA for A+ Salem(Car).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2012: 60%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: This marks Cabral's second straight Rule 5 draft selection, after last year's draft set in motion moves from Boston to Tampa to Toronto, back to Tampa, and then back to Boston, all between the Rule 5 draft and Opening Day. A year ago I considered Cabral unlikely to succeed in the majors, but after another year of development, his chances for success appear much better now. Not only did he succeed at two higher levels of pro ball, he registered a .71 ERA on a 13:3 K:BB in 12.2 IP over 20 G in the Dominican Winter League, showing a vast improvement on last season's stats.

As a two-time Rule 5 pick, Cabral can opt for free agency if he does not break camp with the Yankees and no one claims him off waivers, but with Pedro Feliciano likely sidelined for the season, Cabral only needs to beat out a couple of non-roster invitees to win a job. While New York certainly could opt for a more experienced arm like Michael O'Connor, Cabral also appears surprisingly well positioned to win a job, albeit not one that should place him on anyone's fantasy radar.

6. Chicago Cubs: Lendy Castillo, RH Swingman, PHI; 23, B:R, T:R.
4-2 on a 46:16 K:BB in 46 IP over 2 GS(21G)
with 37 H, 1 HR, a 1.28 G-F, and a 2.54 ERA for A Lakewood(SAL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2012: 20%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: After he posted a weak .600 OPS during three seasons of Rookie-ball while playing shortstop, the Phillies moved Castillo to the mound in 2010. He still suffers from some control issues, but he also struck out a batter per inning over the last two years. Although his flashes of dominance and reverse platoon split offer some intrigue, Castillo also has not pitched above A-ball and only managed a total of 111 IP over the last two years, giving him precious little experience as a professional pitcher.

Perhaps the new Cubs' brain trust found a diamond in the rough here, however nothing in his track record suggests that Castillo will contribute in any significant fashion this year to either the Cubs or any fantasy team.

7. Pittsburgh: Gustavo Nunez, SS, DET; 24, B:S, T:R.
26/121 for .215/.252/.289 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 13 R, a 4/7 SB%,
and a 5:27 BB:K for AA Erie(EL).
79/260 for .304/.368/.431 with 3 HR, 18 RBI, 46 R, a 14/24 SB%,
and a 25:40 BB:K for A+ Lakeland(FSL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2012: 10%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve infielder.
Fantasy Potential: Last year the Pirates owned the first pick in the Rule 5 draft and selected an experienced upper-level bat from an AL Central team who nevertheless lasted only 12 AB with Pittsburgh before returning to his home team. While Josh Rodriguez flopped in the majors due to defensive issues that magnified existing scouting concerns, Nunez appears likely to struggle for the opposite reason, with general performance issues likely to overwhelm his previously strong scouting reports from past years. He serves little purpose for a team that just signed Clint Barmes to a $10.5M/2 contract and retains superior supersubs Chase d'Arnaud and Yamaico Navarro on the 40-man roster.

Perhaps Nunez's defensive acumen, marginal speed skills, and occasional BA spurts will convince the Pirates to keep him rostered (while giving d'Arnaud and/or Navarro regular AAA at-bats), but nothing here indicates that Nunez will produce positive value at any point in 2012.

8. Atlanta: Robert Fish, LH Reliever, LAA; 24, B:L, T:L.
1-0 and 2 Saves on a 41:18 K:BB in 30.1 IP over 24 G
with 31 H, 1 HR, a 1.88 G-F, and a 3.26 ERA for AA Arkansas(TL).
0-0 on a 3:0 K:BB in 3 IP over 2 G
with 3 H, 0 HR, a .67 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for R Angels(AZL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2012: 10%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Like Cesar Cabral, Fish spent last spring in big league camp as a Rule 5 pick before returning to his original franchise, and he also managed to pitch successfully at the highest level of his career last year. Unfortunately, Fish still suffered from control issues in the Texas League, and even after the departure of George Sherrill, the Braves retain two top lefty relievers in Johnny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty. An injury to either pitcher could open a job for Fish, especially after their respective workloads last year, but with seven clearly superior relievers in camp and a few more comparably live arms on the cusp of the majors, Atlanta almost certainly will cut bait on Fish by the end of spring training.

Even if he unexpectedly makes the team, Fish lacks the skills necessary to earn positive value for any fantasy team in 2012.

9. St. Louis: Eric Komatsu, OF, WAS; 24, B:L, T:L.
30/128 for .234/.298/.297 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 12 R, an 8/11 SB%,
and an 11:22 BB:K for AA Harrisburg(EL).
94/320 for .294/.393/.416 with 6 HR, 40 RBI, 48 R, a 13/19 SB%,
and a 53:44 BB:K for AA Huntsville(SL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2012: 33%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve outfielder.
Fantasy Potential: Komatsu, who Milwaukee traded to Washington last year for Jerry Hairston, appeared a much better fit for the Cardinals before they replaced Albert Pujols with another outfielder in Carlos Beltran. While Allen Craig's injury issues, combined with the generally fragile players assembled on the St. Louis roster this year, could provide an opening for Komatsu, he must outplay the very similar Adron Chambers and developing young sluggers Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter, and Zach Cox to win a roster spot.

However, impressive plate discipline, decent speed, and solid defense could make Komatsu a good reserve for a team with limited outfield depth like the Reds or Orioles. Wait until he wins that job or at least unexpectedly starts accumulating a little value off the Cardinals' bench before considering him in any league.

10. Boston: Marwin Gonzalez, SS, CHC; 24, B:S, T:R.
Traded to Houston for AAA Rule 5 pick RHP Marco Duarte.
54/197 for .274/.326/.376 with 2 HR, 19 RBI, 24 R, a 3/4 SB%,
and a 16:21 BB:K in 197 AB for AAA Iowa(PCL).
65/216 for .301/.359/.421 with 2 HR, 20 RBI, 29 R, a 4/6 SB%,
and a 17:27 BB:K in 216 AB for AA Tennessee(SL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2012: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve infielder.
Fantasy Potential: Boston swapped Gonzalez to the Astros for the first pick in the minor league phase of the draft, opting for a higher-upside arm that doesn't require a 40-man spot. However, Gonzalez could emerge as an unlikely contributor in Houston as an option at three infield positions. Under Houston's new management, none of the Astros' young infielders appears certain to break camp in the majors, and Gonzalez actually received more upper-level experience than nominal starters Jose Altuve and Jimmy Paredes, both of whom shot from A-ball to the majors in less than a year.

Realistically, Gonzalez only truly needs to outplay Chris Johnson and former Astros' backup (and current NRI) Angel Sanchez to win a bench job. Even though he offers little fantasy upside, Gonzalez seems a decent fit for this club in the midst of their Texas teardown.

(After Ryan Flaherty, the Gonzalez selection marks the second Rule 5 pick lost by the Cubs and the second player lost by the Cubs who belongs in the majors more than Chicago Rule 5 selection Lendy Castillo.)

11. Arizona: Brett Lorin, RH Swingman, PIT; 24, B:L, T:R.
7-6 and 1 Save on a 99:19 K:BB in 117.1 IP over 17 GS(25G)
with 103 H, 7 HR, a 1.25 G-F, and a 2.84 ERA for A+ Bradenton(FSL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2012: 40%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever and spot starter.
Fantasy Potential: Arizona struck gold last year with Joe Paterson, and the 6'7" Lorin looks like another potential hidden gem. He impressed as a starter but dominated out of the bullpen, posting a 1.71 ERA on a 29:4 K:BB in 31.2 IP over 8 G without demonstrating a significant platoon split. Apparently the hip injury that effectively destroyed his 2010 season removed Lorin from the Pirates' plans, a mild surprise since they liked him to enough to grab him from the Mariners in 2009.

The biggest problem that Lorin faces now involves a Diamondbacks' pitching staff with 12 pitchers virtually certain to break camp in the majors. While neither rookie Bryan Shaw nor any other reliever proved capable of pitching multiple innings effectively, Arizona fielded a starting rotation with four pitchers who each exceeded 205 IP and started 33 or more games, plus sophomore Josh Collmenter. Lorin owns the skills necessary to succeed in the majors, but he will need a lucky break (perhaps literally) to see many MLB innings this summer. Just remember his name in case he slips into the starting rotation at some point.

Like the aforementioned Ryan Flaherty and Marwin Gonzalez with the Cubs, Lorin also appears a much better fit than the actual Rule 5 pick (Gustavo Nunez) taken by the Pirates' club that did not protect Lorin prior to the draft.

12. New York Yankees: Brad Meyers, RH Starter, WAS; 26, B:R, T:R.
6-5 on a 74:15 K:BB in 95.2 IP over 16 GS(17G)
with 110 H, 8 HR, a 1.31 G-F, and a 3.48 ERA for AAA Syracuse(IL).
3-2 on a 38:0 K:BB in 36.1 IP over 6 GS
with 35 H, 2 HR, a .96 G-F, and a 2.48 ERA for AA Harrisburg(EL).
0-0 on a 4:0 K:BB in 6.2 IP over 2 GS
with 5 H, 0 HR, a .75 G-F, and a 2.70 ERA for A- Auburn(NYP).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2012: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever and spot starter.
Fantasy Potential: The Yankees seem to make a Rule 5 selection almost every year yet never actually keep their picks at the end of camp. Particularly with the departure of A.J. Burnett, which clears an opening for a long reliever, Meyers finally may break that trend. If Freddy Garcia wins a starting job and Phil Hughes lands in middle relief, Meyers gives the Yankees a low-risk option with outstanding control to backstop a rotation full of pitchers prone to the occasional blowup. Like Brett Lorin, Meyers probably belongs somewhere with a younger rotation less accustomed to pitching deep into games, but like Pittsburgh with Lorin, Washington apparently does not see much upside in Meyers.

That evaluation appears a mistake, and Meyers certainly possesses the skills necessary to emerge as the best Rule 5 pick of this class. He just may not be a good fantasy fit unless he either starts vulturing some wins or passes to a more patient club via waivers at the end of camp.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Although, only five of the nineteen picks from the 2010 draft remained in the majors last year, two of them played for playoff teams: Philadelphia's Michael Martinez and Arizona's Joe Paterson. Paterson in particular proved a superb investment for the Diamondbacks as he quickly emerged as their primary lefty specialist. While Kansas City's Nathan Adcock, Houston's Aneury Rodriguez, and the Mets' Pedro Beato also impressed at times, only Paterson and Beato look like long-term contributors at this time.

The Twins' trade of AAA RH Reliever Billy Bullock the Braves, in exchange for Minnesota's right to retain Rule 5 pick Scott Diamond, also may prove prescient given the latter's upside. Unfortunately, Diamond's continued struggles as a starter suggest he belongs in relief, where he appears vastly more likely than Bullock to secure a spot in a big league bullpen. Teams' 26% success rate with the 2010 Rule 5 picks ranks right in the middle of the previous two classes, when 5 of the 18 players in 2008 earned MLB jobs, followed by 5 of the 21 selectees in 2009 and 5 of the 17 picks in 2010.

Despite the severely diminished size of this year's class, a few players seem relatively certain to stick in the majors, and no obvious obstacle should prevent another five Rule 5 picks from winning jobs for the fifth straight season. While Ryan Flaherty looks like the only lock to break camp in the majors, Brad Meyers deserves a big league job on merit, and Terry Doyle, Brett Lorin, and Cesar Cabral similarly seem like good bets to succeed. With Marwin Gonzalez, Lucas Luetge, and Eric Komatsu also qualified and just needing to impress for the next six weeks, this Rule 5 class at least should hit par with five respectable graduates.

Unlike some seasons, a few of these guys also may warrant consideration in spring drafts. Flaherty obviously tops that list as a good late-round MIF grab in AL-only leagues, but Doyle and Lorin could sneak into their respective starting rotations with a little luck, and Meyers also could warrant a Dollar Days gamble for owners desperate for wins.