Rotohelp.com

by Tim Polko

Note: Despite delayed posting, all award, record, and standings projections reflect Rotohelp's Opening Day assessments.

American League Awards

AL Most Valuable Player
1. Joe Mauer, MIN
2. Evan Longoria, TB
3. Mark Teixeira, NYY
4. Alex Rodriguez, NYY
5. Dustin Pedroia, BOS
6. Kevin Youkilis, BOS
7. Miguel Cabrera, DET
8. Grady Sizemore, CLE
9. Nick Markakis, BAL
10. Carlos Pena, TB/ATL

Five months of health earned Mauer an MVP last year, and unless playing outdoors contributes to more injury issues, he remains the favorite to repeat. Perhaps the most popular pick to unseat him, Longoria, probably will fall short due to Tampa's expected third place finish. The two best position players on either of the two best teams in the league, Teixeira, ARod, Pedroia, and Youkilis each could top this list or finish tenth, but all four likely will receive votes. A sober Miguel Cabrera should build on his 2009 performance in Detroit while a (possibly) healthy Grady Sizemore should key a small Cleveland resurgence. Despite a lack of leading statistical indicators, Markakis strikes us as ripe for a breakout into an MVP-caliber year.

Lastly, Pena should spend four months as the Rays' second best player before his pending free agency forces a trade. Among the likely NL contenders, only Atlanta, Florida, and San Francisco need significant upgrades at first base, and Atlanta demonstrates sufficient aggressiveness to grab their top target early. Pena looks like a perfect fit for the Braves, probably costing only Kris Medlen and catching prospect Christian Bethancourt and giving the club the offense necessary to run with the Phillies and Dodgers. If Pena's early free agent push this spring continues as we expect, he will still earn MVP consideration in the AL before emerging as Fred McGriff 2.0 for Atlanta.

AL Cy Young
1. Josh Beckett, BOS
2. Justin Verlander, DET
3. Felix Hernandez, SEA
4. C.C. Sabathia, NYY
5. Clay Buchholz, BOS

Unless Zach Greinke unexpectedly defies all expectations of regression, Beckett, Verlander, King Felix, and C.C. look like the class of the AL, and with his place atop Boston's rotation secure, this year Beckett should add the Cy to his 2003 WS MVP and 2007 ALCS MVP awards. Buchholz's breakout should leap him over the other top AL starters: Lester & Lackey in Boston, Shields and Garza in Tampa, and Peavy in Chicago.

AL Rookie of the Year
1. Brian Matusz, BAL
2. Wade Davis, TB
3. Neftali Feliz, TEX
4. Michael Taylor, OAK
5. Chris Carter, OAK

No one in this field wows me, leaving plenty of room for someone like one of the Tigers' rookies (Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore) to leapfrog the listed quintet. However, Matusz and Davis both appear reliable contributors, Feliz could continue dominating as the Rangers' new closer, and the two Athletics only need at-bats in the majors to impress. Remaining sleepers include Tampa's Jeremy Hellickson, Toronto's Brett Wallace, Cleveland's Lou Marson, Carlos Santana, and Michael Brantley, and Oakland's Tyson Ross, the club's top pitching prospect who unexpectedly broke camp in the big league bullpen.

AL Manger of the Year
1. Mike Scioscia, LAA
2. Terry Francona, BOS
3. Ron Washington, TEX
4. Ron Gardenhire, MIN
5. Joe Girardi, NYY

Betting against Scioscia simply makes no sense at this point, particularly since the Angels still possess the talent necessary to outlast their competitors in the West. Winning the East should give Francona a significant advantage over Girardi, while even keeping the Rangers competitive will earn Washington admirers after this off-season's self-inflicted brouhaha. Simply selecting Jon Rauch to replace Joe Nathan only merits a mention for Gardenhire, especially if he cannot find a decent third baseman for his lineup.

AL Executive of the Year
1. Theo Epstein, BOS
2. Tony Reagins, LAA
3. Billy Beane, OAK

Beane will snag mention here due to likely in-season moves, although Jack Zduriencik, despite an outwardly excellent winter, slips out of contention due to failing to meet expectations. Boston's retrenchment through the signing of Lackey, Beltre, Cameron, and Scutaro will win Theo another round of plaudits while Reagins will look similarly smart for quietly inking Pineiro and Matsui to replace the much more vaunted Lackey and Vlad.

AL Comeback Player of the Year
1. Ben Sheets, OAK/LAD
2. Adrian Beltre, BOS
3. Jake Westbrook, CLE

Dontrelle Willis fails to make this list, since he both did not miss all of 2009 and will not match the contributions of Sheets or Westbrook (despite the former likely finishing the season in the other league). Beltre also seems an easy pick here given the expected rebound he should enjoy from a summer at Fenway.

AL Breakout Player
1. Clay Buchholz, BOS
2. Daric Barton, OAK
3. Jose Lopez, SEA

Given that the Red Sox have offered no indication that Buchholz will miss any starts this year, even perhaps shifting to a six-man rotation at times to protect all their arms, he should emerge as a potential fourth ace in Boston. Barton's early performance reinforces the seemingly obvious fact that players with excellent plate discipline and power upside should not be forgotten if they do not develop instantly into All-Stars after reaching the majors at 22 or 23 (see: Pena, Carlos). Meanwhile, Lopez may emerge as the key to Seattle's offense, and after a few years spent quietly honing his hitting skills, the move to third base should provide the pressure alleviation needed for him to emerge as no less than the AL's Dan Uggla.

AL Reliever of the Year
1. Jon Papelbon, BOS

Joe Nathan's injury leaves only Mariano and Joakim Soria as reasonable contenders, and Papelbon should receive the most opportunities in high-leverage situations.

AL Hitting Coach of the Year
1. Terry Crowley, BAL

Several Orioles seem primed to break out, and if Markakis, Wieters, Adam Jones, Felix Pie, and Nolan Reimold continue improving as expected, Crowley will deserve much of the credit for facilitating their development. Additionally, any rebound from a Coors-less Garrett Atkins will reflect well on Crowley.

AL Pitching Coach of the Year
1. Mike Maddux, TEX

Consider the combination of last year's development of Scott Feldman, Tommy Hunter, Darren O'Day, and Neftali Feliz with expected 2010 success stories Colby Lewis, Chris Ray, Derek Holland, and maybe even converted reliever C.J. Wilson. Right now, the Rangers' luring of Maddux from Milwaukee ranks with the Angels lucking into Bobby Abreu as one of the two best moves made by any teams in the 2008-09 off-season.

Projected American League Standings

While unexpected injuries to multiple five-win players on any team could invalidate these projections rather spectacularly, the American League teams should finish the year as follows (playoff teams in bold).

American League East
1. Boston Red Sox, 98-64
2. New York Yankees, 92-70
3. Tampa Bay Rays, 88-74
4. Toronto Blue Jays, 79-83
5. Baltimore Orioles, 76-86

The Wild Card almost certainly will emerge from the East, though the experience and overall depth of the northeast teams will relegate the Rays to another third place finish with the Orioles and Jays stuck treading water for this summer.

American League Central
1. Minnesota Twins, 87-75
2. Chicago White Sox, 81-81
3. Detroit Tigers, 76-86
4. Cleveland Indians, 74-88
5. Kansas City Royals, 64-98

Only Kansas City enters the year with no hope or faith, but the Twins, even sans Nathan, still seem the strongest team. Trades and injuries could enable the other three teams to finish in any order.

American League West
1. Los Angeles Angels, 86-76
2. Texas Rangers, 85-77
3. Oakland Athletics, 83-79
4. Seattle Mariners, 79-83

Flip a coin between the Angels and Rangers: both teams deserve serious consideration, but Scioscia gets the benefit of the doubt. Only unexpected development from several players on either Oakland or Seattle will allow those clubs to compete seriously for a playoff spot.

American League Division Series
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox

Minnesota can probably manage at least a split at Target Field, regardless of the potential weather issues, but the Yankees remain built for another October run. None of the Twins' starters would make New York's three-man playoff rotation of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte.

John Lackey looks like the difference between the Angels and Red Sox. Unless the Angels can finagle an ace from their quintet of #3 starters, a foursome of Lackey, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz looks unbeatable in the playoffs.

American League Championship Series
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

As much as the Yankees are built for the playoffs, so are the Red Sox, with a comparable bullpen, equally impressive starters, and a vastly superior defense. While this series could push seven games, the combination of Boston's greater depth and home field advantage will give the Red Sox their third World Series berth in the last eight seasons.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While a bit late for fantasy drafts, Buchholz, Barton, and Lopez all still seem underrated compared to their respective potentials and could be good pickups. Other potential buy-low candidates include Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Rios, Randy Ruiz, Freddy Garcia, Brandon League, and Matt Thornton.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.


Rotohelp Our Philosophy		2010 AL Preview IV: AL Awards & Playoffs by Tim Polko Today's Fantasy Rx Note: Despite delayed posting, all award, record, and standings projections reflect Rotohelp's Opening Day assessments. American League Awards AL Most Valuable Player 1. Joe Mauer, MIN 2. Evan Longoria, TB 3. Mark Teixeira, NYY 4. Alex Rodriguez, NYY 5. Dustin Pedroia, BOS 6. Kevin Youkilis, BOS 7. Miguel Cabrera, DET 8. Grady Sizemore, CLE 9. Nick Markakis, BAL 10. Carlos Pena, TB/ATL Five months of health earned Mauer an MVP last year, and unless playing outdoors contributes to more injury issues, he remains the favorite to repeat. Perhaps the most popular pick to unseat him, Longoria, probably will fall short due to Tampa's expected third place finish. The two best position players on either of the two best teams in the league, Teixeira, ARod, Pedroia, and Youkilis each could top this list or finish tenth, but all four likely will receive votes. A sober Miguel Cabrera should build on his 2009 performance in Detroit while a (possibly) healthy Grady Sizemore should key a small Cleveland resurgence. Despite a lack of leading statistical indicators, Markakis strikes us as ripe for a breakout into an MVP-caliber year. Lastly, Pena should spend four months as the Rays' second best player before his pending free agency forces a trade. Among the likely NL contenders, only Atlanta, Florida, and San Francisco need significant upgrades at first base, and Atlanta demonstrates sufficient aggressiveness to grab their top target early. Pena looks like a perfect fit for the Braves, probably costing only Kris Medlen and catching prospect Christian Bethancourt and giving the club the offense necessary to run with the Phillies and Dodgers. If Pena's early free agent push this spring continues as we expect, he will still earn MVP consideration in the AL before emerging as Fred McGriff 2.0 for Atlanta. AL Cy Young 1. Josh Beckett, BOS 2. Justin Verlander, DET 3. Felix Hernandez, SEA 4. C.C. Sabathia, NYY 5. Clay Buchholz, BOS Unless Zach Greinke unexpectedly defies all expectations of regression, Beckett, Verlander, King Felix, and C.C. look like the class of the AL, and with his place atop Boston's rotation secure, this year Beckett should add the Cy to his 2003 WS MVP and 2007 ALCS MVP awards. Buchholz's breakout should leap him over the other top AL starters: Lester & Lackey in Boston, Shields and Garza in Tampa, and Peavy in Chicago. AL Rookie of the Year 1. Brian Matusz, BAL 2. Wade Davis, TB 3. Neftali Feliz, TEX 4. Michael Taylor, OAK 5. Chris Carter, OAK No one in this field wows me, leaving plenty of room for someone like one of the Tigers' rookies (Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore) to leapfrog the listed quintet. However, Matusz and Davis both appear reliable contributors, Feliz could continue dominating as the Rangers' new closer, and the two Athletics only need at-bats in the majors to impress. Remaining sleepers include Tampa's Jeremy Hellickson, Toronto's Brett Wallace, Cleveland's Lou Marson, Carlos Santana, and Michael Brantley, and Oakland's Tyson Ross, the club's top pitching prospect who unexpectedly broke camp in the big league bullpen. AL Manger of the Year 1. Mike Scioscia, LAA 2. Terry Francona, BOS 3. Ron Washington, TEX 4. Ron Gardenhire, MIN 5. Joe Girardi, NYY Betting against Scioscia simply makes no sense at this point, particularly since the Angels still possess the talent necessary to outlast their competitors in the West. Winning the East should give Francona a significant advantage over Girardi, while even keeping the Rangers competitive will earn Washington admirers after this off-season's self-inflicted brouhaha. Simply selecting Jon Rauch to replace Joe Nathan only merits a mention for Gardenhire, especially if he cannot find a decent third baseman for his lineup. AL Executive of the Year 1. Theo Epstein, BOS 2. Tony Reagins, LAA 3. Billy Beane, OAK Beane will snag mention here due to likely in-season moves, although Jack Zduriencik, despite an outwardly excellent winter, slips out of contention due to failing to meet expectations. Boston's retrenchment through the signing of Lackey, Beltre, Cameron, and Scutaro will win Theo another round of plaudits while Reagins will look similarly smart for quietly inking Pineiro and Matsui to replace the much more vaunted Lackey and Vlad. AL Comeback Player of the Year 1. Ben Sheets, OAK/LAD 2. Adrian Beltre, BOS 3. Jake Westbrook, CLE Dontrelle Willis fails to make this list, since he both did not miss all of 2009 and will not match the contributions of Sheets or Westbrook (despite the former likely finishing the season in the other league). Beltre also seems an easy pick here given the expected rebound he should enjoy from a summer at Fenway. AL Breakout Player 1. Clay Buchholz, BOS 2. Daric Barton, OAK 3. Jose Lopez, SEA Given that the Red Sox have offered no indication that Buchholz will miss any starts this year, even perhaps shifting to a six-man rotation at times to protect all their arms, he should emerge as a potential fourth ace in Boston. Barton's early performance reinforces the seemingly obvious fact that players with excellent plate discipline and power upside should not be forgotten if they do not develop instantly into All-Stars after reaching the majors at 22 or 23 (see: Pena, Carlos). Meanwhile, Lopez may emerge as the key to Seattle's offense, and after a few years spent quietly honing his hitting skills, the move to third base should provide the pressure alleviation needed for him to emerge as no less than the AL's Dan Uggla. AL Reliever of the Year 1. Jon Papelbon, BOS Joe Nathan's injury leaves only Mariano and Joakim Soria as reasonable contenders, and Papelbon should receive the most opportunities in high-leverage situations. AL Hitting Coach of the Year 1. Terry Crowley, BAL Several Orioles seem primed to break out, and if Markakis, Wieters, Adam Jones, Felix Pie, and Nolan Reimold continue improving as expected, Crowley will deserve much of the credit for facilitating their development. Additionally, any rebound from a Coors-less Garrett Atkins will reflect well on Crowley. AL Pitching Coach of the Year 1. Mike Maddux, TEX Consider the combination of last year's development of Scott Feldman, Tommy Hunter, Darren O'Day, and Neftali Feliz with expected 2010 success stories Colby Lewis, Chris Ray, Derek Holland, and maybe even converted reliever C.J. Wilson. Right now, the Rangers' luring of Maddux from Milwaukee ranks with the Angels lucking into Bobby Abreu as one of the two best moves made by any teams in the 2008-09 off-season. Projected American League Standings While unexpected injuries to multiple five-win players on any team could invalidate these projections rather spectacularly, the American League teams should finish the year as follows (playoff teams in bold). American League East 1. Boston Red Sox, 98-64 2. New York Yankees, 92-70 3. Tampa Bay Rays, 88-74 4. Toronto Blue Jays, 79-83 5. Baltimore Orioles, 76-86 The Wild Card almost certainly will emerge from the East, though the experience and overall depth of the northeast teams will relegate the Rays to another third place finish with the Orioles and Jays stuck treading water for this summer. American League Central 1. Minnesota Twins, 87-75 2. Chicago White Sox, 81-81 3. Detroit Tigers, 76-86 4. Cleveland Indians, 74-88 5. Kansas City Royals, 64-98 Only Kansas City enters the year with no hope or faith, but the Twins, even sans Nathan, still seem the strongest team. Trades and injuries could enable the other three teams to finish in any order. American League West 1. Los Angeles Angels, 86-76 2. Texas Rangers, 85-77 3. Oakland Athletics, 83-79 4. Seattle Mariners, 79-83 Flip a coin between the Angels and Rangers: both teams deserve serious consideration, but Scioscia gets the benefit of the doubt. Only unexpected development from several players on either Oakland or Seattle will allow those clubs to compete seriously for a playoff spot. American League Division Series New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox Minnesota can probably manage at least a split at Target Field, regardless of the potential weather issues, but the Yankees remain built for another October run. None of the Twins' starters would make New York's three-man playoff rotation of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte. John Lackey looks like the difference between the Angels and Red Sox. Unless the Angels can finagle an ace from their quintet of #3 starters, a foursome of Lackey, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz looks unbeatable in the playoffs. American League Championship Series New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox As much as the Yankees are built for the playoffs, so are the Red Sox, with a comparable bullpen, equally impressive starters, and a vastly superior defense. While this series could push seven games, the combination of Boston's greater depth and home field advantage will give the Red Sox their third World Series berth in the last eight seasons. Today's Fantasy Rx: While a bit late for fantasy drafts, Buchholz, Barton, and Lopez all still seem underrated compared to their respective potentials and could be good pickups. Other potential buy-low candidates include Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Rios, Randy Ruiz, Freddy Garcia, Brandon League, and Matt Thornton. Click here to read the previous article. Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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	April 22^nd 2010			Your Daily Fantasy Rx