Today's Fantasy Rx

American League West

1. Los Angeles Angels, 86-76 (Projected record)

While the losses of John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Vlad Guerrero, and even Darren Oliver leave holes on the Angels, GM Tony Reagins managed to address some of those issues by signing Joel Pineiro and Hideki Matsui, not to mention his August trade for Scott Kazmir. Switching from Figgins to Brandon Wood still hurts, but with a decent cadre of AAAA talent available all around the diamond, the Angels should not plummet in the standings. Even one decent mid-season trade to reinforce the lineup or bullpen should leave Mike Scioscia, easily one of baseball's best managers, with sufficient raw material to approach another 90-win season.

The Angels play in a remarkably tough division, one with four teams easily capable of contending, and a developing Rangers squad could pass them. However, a remarkably well-balanced starting rotation and reasonably fluid bullpen corps provide enough leeway for the Angels to win ten fewer games than in 2009 while still returning to the playoffs.

2. Texas Rangers, 85-77

Every time Texas seemed to mistep this off-season, the club eventually rebounded to address the issue prior to the start of the season. The Rangers sought to swap Max Ramirez for Mike Lowell, watched Lowell fail a physical in the middle of ridiculously extended trade talks, and then snagged Ryan Garko off waivers near the end of spring training. Khalil Greene opted not to report due to anxiety, and in the meantime, Ian Kinsler needs more DL time. A quick call to the Cubs secured Andres Blanco to sub in the infield while ARod trade remnant Joaquin Arias finally gets some at-bats in the majors. Even the indirect Kevin Millwood/Rich Harden exchange still looks promising, particularly when GM Jon Daniels used some of that savings to bring Colby Lewis back to the States.

By covering up Ron Washington's bizarre mid-2009 cocaine use, until it leaked early this spring, the Rangers somehow avoided an entire winter of calls for his resignation. Instead, Washington gets to enter this year on the shortest leash of any manager. If he succeeds, Daniels and club President Nolan Ryan look wise, forgiving, and Solomonic. If the Rangers stumble at any point, Daniels always can return to Washington's horrendous lapse of judgment as an excuse to turn to bench coach and former Oakland manager Jackie Moore, or perhaps batting coach and ex-Rockies skipper Clint Hurdle. Texas does not lack alternatives if Washington cannot atone for his errors with a season spent in contention for the playoffs.

Unfortunately for Rangers fans, no area of this team seems due for a significant breakout. Injuries to Kinsler, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Tommy Hunter already limit the remaining AAA reserves, even before Rich Harden and Josh Hamilton inevitably suffer through some issues. The Texas system contains a wealth of talent, but pushing 21-year-old Neftali Feliz into the closer's role a week into the season seems quite aggressive. The offense also remains subject to an abundance of strikeouts, limiting the benefits of speedsters like Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, and Julio Borbon.

Perhaps the mid-summer emergence of Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland, or even reemergence of Derek Holland will prove a needed counter to the backbreaking Texas heat. Nelson Cruz could remain so productive that the team never misses Marlon Byrd. Under the tutelage of Pitching Coach Mike Maddux, the staff even could turn in its best season in more than a decade.

However, I do not find any of those scenarios particularly likely. Although the Rangers likely will push the Angels all the way to the wire, the veteran club retains the edge unless the combination of Washington, Ryan, and Daniels' summer dealing can overcome Scioscia's stewardship in Anaheim.

3. Oakland Athletics, 83-79

Signing anyone who missed a full year of action always ranks as a somewhat risky move, but giving the oft-injured Ben Sheets $10M to front the A's rotation of sophomores might upend conventional wisdom. If he reemerges as a staff ace reminiscent of his Team USA and Milwaukee days, Billy Beane grabbed a bargain. Conversely, if Oakland struggles to contend, Sheets only needs to look healthy for a start or two in July or August to allow Beane to flip him to somewhere like Chavez Ravine in exchange for a James McDonald or two. While Sheets still seems a bad gamble (though who would not want a player with an agent, Casey Close, who let said player turn down arbitration from Milwaukee and then watched him miss the entire following season, thereby leaving more than $10M on the table), he typifies the high-risk, high-reward nature of the Athletics' recent involvement in the free agent market.

Of course, the decision to pay Coco Crisp $5.25M for 2010 makes even less sense given the presence of a comparable player on the roster in Rajai Davis, as well as much higher-upside options for both corner slots and DH: Travis Buck, Ryan Sweeney, Jack Cust, and both Chris Carter and Michael Taylor, who rank among the game's best power prospects. Whereas Beane spent 2009 auditioning rookie pitchers to see who belongs in the club's rotation, this summer should be centered on the transition to a lineup with Carter and Taylor at the core, most likely at DH and RF respectively. With Davis looking more like the long-term centerfield solution every day, and Kurt Suzuki, Daric Barton, and Kevin Kouzmanoff fairly set at C, 1B, and 3B, Oakland's 2011 offense will look promising regardless of the composition of the middle infield and remaining outfield slot. The variety of options in the infield, from current starters Mark Ellis and Cliff Pennington through backups Adam Rosales and Eric Patterson to prospects Jemile Weeks, Adrian Cardenas, and 2009 1st rounder Grant Green, allows the A's to stick with the hot hand at any given time and explore trade options for veterans like Ellis.

If the A's slip back from the Angels and Rangers as expected, Beane will balance the upside of dealing Crisp and Ellis against the one area of notable improvement for the team this winter: improved defensive range, prowess, and stability. While Oakland did not match the defensive development of the Mariners and Red Sox, the additions of Kouzmanoff and Crisp solidified a remarkably adept group of fielders. The improved defense should translate into an additional (and necessary) cushion for the young starters, allowing them to pitch to contact without worrying as much about the support behind them. Fortunately for Oakland, shifting from Crisp and Ellis to Taylor and either Weeks or Cardenas should not impact the defense significantly.

Sheets and fellow (re)signee Justin Duchscherer, if healthy, anchor a potentially playoff-caliber rotation of Dallas Braden, Brett Anderson, and either Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, or Vince Mazzaro. However, the odds of even one of those veterans remaining healthy all year appear minimal, and with injuries also striking down half of the projected opening day bullpen, the relief corps will not provide a sufficient backstop if the starters cannot pitch efficiently. Oakland might be able to deploy one of the league's best bullpens by the second half, but this club seemingly lacks the horses to remain competitive even if all their key players were healthy simultaneously.

I strongly suspect Sheets will finish this season on a new team, most likely the Dodgers, and Duchscherer, Ellis, Crisp, Eric Chavez, Gabe Gross, and Chad Gaudin similarly offer Beane a variety of interesting trade chits. With a couple more smart moves, Oakland should return to full competitiveness next year, likely setting up a battle with four franchises of comparable talent in what may be the game's toughest division in this new decade.

4. Seattle Mariners, 79-83

No franchise in baseball improved more over the past two years than the Mariners, and GM Jack Zduriencik deserves full credit for the improvement. The Brewers' former scouting director fully embraced the game's increasing shift toward emphasizing defense, providing Seattle with upgrades at every position in the field, even allowing nine-team Gold Glove winner Ichiro to head back to right field. Somehow Zduriencik also upgraded each position offensively at the same time. Compare the Mariners' lineup on the last day of 2008 with Opening Day this year:

Pos	2008		2010
C	K.Johjima	Ro.Johnson
1B	Jo.Lopez	C.Kotchman
2B	L.Valbuena	C.Figgins
3B	M.Tuiasosopo	Jo.Lopez
SS	Y.Betancourt	Ja.Wilson
LF	R.Ibanez	M.Bradley
CF	W.Balentien	F.Gutierrez
RF	Ichiro		Ichiro
DH	Ro.Johnson	K.Griffey

While only a few of these guys look like potential All-Stars, the Mariners should not need to worry about fielding a competitive team any time soon. The combination of signing Felix Hernandez to a $78M/5 extension and stealing Cliff Lee from the Phillies for Phillipe Aumont, JC Ramirez, and Tyson Gillies sets a pair of aces atop this rotation. However, Lee might miss all of April, the re-signed Erik Bedard appears as fragile as ever, and neither Ryan Rowland-Smith nor Ian Snell looks ready to serve as the #2 and #3 starters this team might require. Current #4 and #5 starters Doug Fister and Jason Vargas appear nearly as promising, giving the Mariners very impressive starting depth, but without Felix, Lee, and Bedard all at full health, this is not a playoff rotation.

Seattle's bullpen offers greater promise than the starters. David Aardsma is a capable closer, and sending Brandon Morrow to Toronto for Brandon League filled their immediate need for a high-upside set-up man with closer potential. Mark Lowe, Shawn Kelley, Sean White, and Rule 5 pick Kanekoa Texeira probably rank as the best quartet of middle relievers in the league, and when Vargas returns to the bullpen, he will provide needed balance.

Given that the Mariners improved their record by 24 wins between 2008 and 2009, some regression appears inevitable, especially since they outperformed their Pythagorean record last year by ten wins. While the continued lineup remodeling should allow them to solidify much of that gain, I neither see the quality starting pitching necessary to outperform the Angels, Rangers, and Athletics, nor the available trade chits necessary to address the team's most significant deficiency. Seattle soon will challenge for a playoff spot, but a consolidation year, capped by the probable arrival of Dustin Ackley in 2011 and some mid-season prospect reinforcement courtesy of Cliff Lee, appears the most likely outcome for 2010.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Players at significant risk of moving to the NL from this division include Ben Sheets, Cliff Lee, Erik Bedard, and Mark Ellis. Two of these teams seem likely to rebuild, and given the price this quartet could fetch (if healthy) in July, I expect at least a couple of these guys to open August in new uniforms.