Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Central

1. Minnesota Twins, 87-75 (Projected record)

The opening of Target Field allowed the Twins to jack the payroll over $90M and award reigning MVP Joe Mauer the $184M/8 extension he deserved. Small market or not, Minnesota now ranks with the most competitive franchises in the league, especially after a series of smart off-season moves improved the club at second base (Orlando Hudson), shortstop (J.J. Hardy), and designated hitter (Jim Thome) for minimal cost. The Twins feature the best 1-9 lineup in the division, lacking only an above average third baseman in the #9 hole (at least until either the arrival of Danny Valencia from AAA or the potential acquisition of Andy LaRoche once Pedro Alvarez arrives in Pittsburgh). Somehow the club improved on both sides of the ball while losing only Carlos Gomez (in the Hardy deal), an understandable exchange given the presence of developing OBP stud Denard Span in center field and atop the order.

In addition to their dynamic lineup, Minnesota also deploys a surprisingly deep starting rotation of Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano, and Francisco Liriano. The loss of Joe Nathan leaves a hole in the bullpen, but with Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, and Clay Condrey, right-handed relief is not a problem. If Rauch and Guerrier unexpectedly falter, a surplus outfield prospect like Ben Revere could land a Jason Frasor or even, with Carlos Gutierrez, a true relief ace like Heath Bell. The major difference between Minnesota and other perennial contenders, particularly the top three AL East teams, is that the Twins lack obvious pitching depth at the upper levels of the minors, though Anthony Swarzak, Jeff Manship, and Glen Perkins at least gained experience in 2009.

Target Field lacks the specific utility of the Metrodome, which offered one of the great home field advantages in sport. Playing games outside in the Minnesota spring and fall also could create unexpected injury issues not previously encountered by the club. However, if the Twins adequately transition to their new field, nothing else should prevent the club from an easy repeat as AL Central champs.

2. Chicago White Sox, 81-81

Despite our historical preference for the team on the north side of town, the White Sox seem increasingly well run with each passing year, especially compared with the running-in-place Cubs. Deals like the Freddy Garcia/Gavin Floyd and Brandon McCarthy/John Danks swaps, neither of which appealed to us at the time, now enable the Sox to deploy perhaps the most balanced five-man rotation in the game. Adding Jake Peavy last summer looks like a masterstroke, providing the perfect complement to Mark Buehrle, Floyd, and Danks, while re-signing Garcia at minimal cost provided needed depth. Calls to displace Bobby Jenks with Matt Thornton ignore the obvious fact that Thornton, ostensibly a better pitcher than Jenks at the moment, likely will pitch higher-leverage innings in middle relief than as the club's closer. This pitching staff appears vastly superior to three division rivals and should match the Twins out-for-out.

Unfortunately for the South Side faithful, Chicago's lineup lacks the same potential. Replacing Scott Podsednik with Juan Pierre; Josh Fields & Chris Getz with Mark Teahen; Jermaine Dye with Alex Rios; and Jim Thome with a Mark Kotsay/Andruw Jones platoon adds up to treading water at absolute best. We could see rebounds from Konerko, Quentin, Pierzynski, and Alexi Ramirez, as well as further development from new franchise cornerstone Gordon Beckham, but this conglomeration of offensive parts fails to excite me. One of the many Ozzie Guillen-centered stories this off-season that potentially places the manager under the gun, the decision not to re-sign Jim Thome still baffles me. While a stable franchise like the White Sox probably will not consider dumping Ozzie any time soon, another season of mediocrity, the likely outcome with this roster, may lead to other surprising changes, particularly with Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski both heading into free agency this fall.

3. Detroit Tigers, 76-86

We understand trading Edwin Jackson, a potentially late-blooming former top prospect who also seems capable of reverting to replacement-level. However, also dealing Curtis Granderson, a homegrown centerfielder and perpetual All-Star candidate who will earn a total of $36.75M over the next four seasons, ranks among the least intelligent decisions in recent memory by any rebuilding team. The fact that many scouts believe Jackson-replacement Max Scherzer could destroy his shoulder at any time similarly makes us question Detroit's actions. Furthermore, shedding contracts alone does not explain the trade since the club then paid $8M for Johnny Damon, a lesser player than Granderson in almost every sense, thus negating the payroll savings.

Blowing another $14M on two years of Jose Valverde similarly indicates that the Tigers believe they can continue contending, an outwardly reasonable assumption after only missing the playoffs by a game in 2009. However, other than Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, perennial award contenders both, every key player on this roster either appear post-prime or pre-prime, leaving precious little talent capable of producing career-best seasons and making Detroit almost the complete opposite of a club like Minnesota. Up the middle, the Tigers plan to deploy Gerald Laird, Adam Everett, and rookies Scott Sizemore and Austin Jackson; this quartet simply cannot form the backbone of a post-season team this year.

Aside from Verlander, recipient of an $80M/5 extension that tops the list of the club's only wise moves this winter, few pitchers seem likely to produce any significant number of quality innings. Rick Porcello turned 21 in December; Scherzer either could dominate or implode; and after dumping Nate Robertson on the Marlins, the Tigers will turn to Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Bonderman, and possibly seventh starter-types like Armando Galarraga, Eddie Bonine, and Zach Miner when the inevitable injuries strike. A relatively barren system already has prompted talk of pushing 2009 #1 pick Jacob Turner to the majors on the Porcello plan, and with relievers Miner and Bobby Seay already on the DL, Detroit cannot count on much support from a surprisingly inexperienced bullpen.

Perhaps the latent talent on this club will recohere under Jim Leyland's stewardship for one more playoff run. A rotation of Verlander, Porcello, Scherzer, and Turner soon could challenge anyone in the division, but unless some smart trades replenish the general lack of talent around the diamond, Detroit may settle back into their old competition with the Royals at the bottom of the division.

4. Cleveland Indians, 74-88

The Indians should see a solid growth year in 2010, albeit not one above .500. The dump trades of the last two years added several key prospects to the team, including catcher Carlos Santana, first baseman Matt LaPorta, left fielder Michael Brantley, starters Justin Masterson, Mitch Talbot, Carlos Carrasco, and Nick Hagadone, and new closer Chris Perez. However, other than Santana, none of these players looks like an annual All-Star. Cleveland's prospect pipeline similarly looks a little light, leaving the club with an abundance of #3/#4 starters, #5/#6 hitters, and precious few budding superstars.

Fortunately for Indians fans, now at a 61-season championship drought exceeded only by the Cubs, three potential franchise players already top the order in Asdrubal Cabrera, Grady Sizemore, and Shin-soo Choo. If Choo can avoid pending military service in South Korea, only the Twins can match this top-three talent in the division over the next three seasons. Carlos Santana soon should join Travis Hafner in the middle of the lineup, providing the bridge to LaPorta, Brantley, 2008 1st rounder Lonnie Chisenhall at third base, and Luis Valbuena at second. By 2011, Cleveland may feature above-average players at every position on the diamond, and this lineup easily could be in place by August if Santana and Chisenhall develop as expected this summer.

The pitching staff remains a different story. Although Masterson could emerge as an ace, Fausto Carmona could regain his lost command, and Talbot, Carrasco, and David Huff all could develop into solid starters, the Indians seem at least a year away from deploying an effective rotation. In the bullpen, Kerry Wood's early injury unfortunately forces everyone into slightly more important roles than desired, particularly Chris Perez at the end of games. Many Cleveland relievers, such as Perez, Joe Smith, Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez, and Jensen Lewis, individually own the skills necessary to thrive in the majors, but right now this bullpen appears less than the sum of its parts.

Mark Shapiro cedes the reins on this rebuilding project to long-time Assistant GM Chris Antonetti at season's end, though by all accounts, they concurred on the replacement of the massively overrated Eric Wedge in the dugout. Hiring Manny Acta, late of the Nationals, ranks among the winter's best moves by any team, especially given his previous receptiveness to the level of statistical support practiced in Cleveland for more than a decade. Acta never built a strong bullpen in Washington, but if he can learn this somewhat elusive skill while also integrating the upper-level prospects into the lineup, Cleveland could return to contention very soon.

To speed that rebound, the Indians really need one more year of heavy involvement in the trade market. Spring training competitions resulted in several veterans either securing roster spots, returning to the lineup after missing time due to injury, or suffering injuries that will lead to mid-season returns. Realistically, pending free agents Jake Westbrook, Kerry Wood, Jamey Wright, Mike Redmond, Mark Grudzielanek, and Russ Branyan all belong in different uniforms by year's end, especially with Carrasco, Jess Todd, Hector Rondon, Santana, Jason Donald, and Trevor Crowe all quite capable of filling or even superseding the veterans' roles by the second half. Third baseman Jhonny Peralta, primed for a rebound, similarly could draw plenty of attention this summer, and with a plethora of choices to cover third from a field that includes former uberprospect Andy Marte, Chisenhall, and Donald, sending Peralta somewhere like St. Louis or Minnesota could further stack the prospect cupboard. While whispers of a Sizemore trade make no sense unless someone like B.J. Upton appears available, a summer spent moving the club's other veterans should provide Acta with a roster of talent exponentially superior to his options in DC and enable the Indians to spend the decade challenging the Twins for divisional supremacy.

5. Kansas City Royals, 64-98

Zach Greinke won the Cy Young. Billy Butler continued his slow emergence into a stud. Joakim Soria remains one of the game's top relievers, and Luke Hochevar's second-half skill improvement, irrespective of a Boeing-level 7.27 ERA, suggests he could begin to fulfill his promise this year.

Other than the accomplishments by that quartet, Royals fans lack any reason for hope at the major league level. In the minors, while Kansas City continues to spend a somewhat shocking amount on prospects in recent years, landing right-hander Aaron Crow, catcher Wil Myers, and Cuban southpaw Noel Arguelles in the last year alone, former top picks Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer continue stagnating. Precious few solid prospects seem to emerge from among the Royals' lower round picks, leaving the club relatively bereft of AAAA replenishment and instead reliant upon annual winter binges that begin with hopes of a free agent gold rush and instead result in the addition of plenty of pyrite bling for similar prices.

In a story retold by many others that unfortunately requires additional repeating, a year ago GM Dayton Moore dealt the club's key middle relievers, Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez, in exchange for the privilege of paying Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp a combined $9M. Both players departed this winter, the former non-tendered and the latter through free agency (without an arbitration offer). To replace Nunez and Ramirez in the bullpen, Moore awarded Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz respective $9.25M/2 and $6M/2 contracts. While Cruz probably deserved that sum given his Arizona work, Moore otherwise wasted over $18M without moving the club toward contention in any notable way.

While he deserves some credit for securing Zach Greinke to a $38M/4 deal prior to last season, Moore also gained the privilege of paying Yuniesky Betancourt $7M over 2010-11 in an ill-advised mid-season trade. Although he at least avoided any significant pick-ups this winter, replacing Jacobs, Crisp, and John Buck, with Rick Ankiel, Scott Podsednik, and Jason Kendall is not going to lead to tangible improvement in the franchise's talent base unless Moore manages to parlay the relative inexpensiveness of Ankiel and Podsednik into prospects with even a small chance of appearing on the next Royals playoff roster.

The pitching staff suffers from a similar situation in that 2009 starters Greinke, Hochevar, Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Kyle Davies again comprise this year's rotation. Although the youngsters could make progress, Greinke's likely regression probably will offset most other improvement. With the relief corps also practically returning intact, another 4.83 ERA probably ranks as the club's best case, especially with a defense lacking adequate fielders at almost every position.

Kansas City won 65 games last year, and barring an unexpected turn of events, probably will not improve on that mark this year. The other four teams in the division either enter the season as ostensible contenders or in the middle of an aggressive rebuilding project, neither of which remotely describes the Royals. Most likely, the club will fake an early effort at contention, spend the rest of the season fading into the league's cellar, make no more than or two trades by the deadline, and allow manager Trey Hillman's contract to expire in October, thus officially wasting the first four years of Dayton Moore's stewardship but giving him at least one more manager to hire thanks to the four-year extension he signed last August.

Alternatively, Moore should grow a goatee, thus becoming Mirror Universe Dayton Moore, and embark upon a dramatically different path. While on this path, Mirror Universe Moore might: realize he works in the original Glass House and stop blackballing reporters like Rany Jazayerli, who only offer constructive criticism because they love the team for reasons that do not involve biweekly paychecks; fire both Hillman and bench coach John Gibbons, the pugilistic clubhouse cancer from Toronto; steal Bobby Valentine away from ESPN, immediately improving the club by the 5-10 games Hillman wastes each year with bad lineup construction and bullpen management while also adding an obvious media lightning rod for the upcoming roster churn; and maybe even see if Leo Mazzone prefers working for Fox to coaching, before finding out if future Hall of Famer and OBP god Frank Thomas, a disciple of former Royals batting coach Charley Lau, might want to serve in a similar role for this squad.

Of course, the roster still needs a full teardown more than any Detroit bungalow. Consequently, Moore should use Jose Guillen's unexpectedly stunning start (.313/.357/.781) as an excuse to peddle him to any erstwhile contender in need of a right-handed bat, perhaps the Yankees or Angels, and pay his entire contract if necessary to obtain a decent prospect. The club could then immediately replace Guillen at DH with AAAA stud Kila Ka'aihue (Free Kila Ka'aihue!), who currently owns a .273/.467/.727 line in 22 AAA at-bats and .265/.404/.485 averages in 577 AAA at-bats over the past three seasons.

M.U. Moore might then: install 2008 rookie surprise Mike Aviles back at short; see if Yuniesky Betancourt prefers pitching or peanut slinging; spend the rest of the summer shopping pending free agents Farnsworth, Cruz, Ankiel, Podsednik, Willie Bloomquist, and John Parrish; and given their respectively reasonable 2011 options, ask a lot for Ankiel and Podsednik, and much less for the others.

He also could listen to all offers on Joakim Soria, Gil Meche, David DeJesus, and everybody else on the roster except for Butler, Hochevar, Arguelles, Crow, and Alex Gordon, whose performance and latent promise does not quite demand a change of scenery at this time. Yes, even Zach Greinke should not be untouchable for the right price, though that price should involve a package featuring Chad Billingsley, James McDonald, Chris Withrow, Josh Lindblom, and Dee Gordon, or maybe Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Yonder Alonso, and Todd Frazier. Goateed Moore would strongly consider leaking to every reporter with a telephone that Bryce Harper wants $100M, and direct all assistants to tweet @Nationals, @Pirates, and @Orioles similar information while hoping he will sign for something less than Strasburg money, but under that worst-case scenario, a $7.5M bonus and a $15.1M/4 major league deal is still $1.65M less than the contracts awarded Jacobs, Crisp, Farnsworth, and Cruz.

Wouldn't M.U. Dayton Moore be better than the phonetically-similar phrase more frequently employed in Kansas City over the past few years?

Perhaps none of these ideas will improve the Royals immediately, but they make them a better franchise; we also know that none of them will make Kansas City noticeably worse over the long haul. More importantly, given that the team has not sniffed the playoffs since the year before new Senior Associate Justice Antonin Scalia joined SCOTUS, moves like these make the Royals interesting again. For Kansas City, more than any team in the game, making the team interesting seems as important for the city, fans, and long-term value of the franchise as actually starting to win again. For all the increasingly long-suffering Royals fans, hopefully Dayton Moore will find some way to tack his name next to John Schuerholz in Royals history, somehow overcoming a half-decade spent careening between Herk Robinson and Allard Baird imitations.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Players at significant risk of moving to the NL from this division include all the pending free agents and comparably unnecessary players on the Indians and Royals as referenced above, as well as A.J. Pierzynski, Dontrelle Willis, and Johnny Damon, though the latter's defense might keep him in the Junior Circuit.