Today's Fantasy Rx

American League East

1. Boston Red Sox, 98-64 (Projected record)

Position-by-position, no one here enjoyed a particularly impressive offensive season. Yes, Mike Cameron represents a downgrade from Jason Bay, but the additions of Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, and a full year of Victor Martinez will help buttress this lineup. With an improved bench and ready AAA reinforcements also available, the Red Sox should not suffer any significant downgrade in their run-scoring machine.

More importantly, the new starters provide an obvious (and well-publicized) defensive realignment that should pay significant dividends, especially for a team that needs to minimize big innings, thereby keeping a somewhat fragile sextet of starters off the disabled list. The vast majority of any improvement registered by the Red Sox this year will be traceable to their able copying of Jack Zduriencik's work in Seattle.

Equally important, the new contracts awarded franchise stalwart Josh Beckett and Anaheim import John Lackey secure the services of both starters through 2014; with Jon Lester similarly under control, the front of the Red Sox rotation ranks with any team in the game. Likely breakout candidate Clay Buchholz also provides an excellent #4 option, so even a round of pitching injuries should not prevent the Red Sox from regaining control of the division.

Plus, unlike the Yankees, all of Boston's key players remain on the sunny side of 35, so no severe regression seems likely from anyone in the lineup.

2. New York Yankees, 92-70

The reigning champs enter the year as prohibitive favorites to return to the playoffs, especially with a solid roster of off-season additions like Curtis Granderson, Javier Vazquez, and Nick Johnson offsetting the few departures. New York's ageless quartet of Jeter, Rivera, Posada, and Pettitte certainly could continue to defy Father Time for another summer, but the majority of key contributors unfortunately have passed their primes.

Expecting mild regression from this offense seems logical, especially with Granderson and Johnson not serving as significant upgrades to the departed Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui. Age also should lead to mild defensive deterioration, though the overall lineup still remains among the game's strongest on both sides of the ball.

Pitching may pose more of a problem for this year's edition, even if Javier Vazquez surpasses his previously unimpressive work in the Bronx. New York also benefited from a roster of relative unknowns producing superb work out of the bullpen, so some slippage seems inevitable.

Barring an unexpected plague of injuries, Yankee fans should enjoy yet another round of October baseball.

3. Tampa Bay Rays, 88-74

No team in the game possesses more young talent than Tampa, with Evan Longoria beginning a long run on MVP ballots, an intriguing lineup of potential All-Stars, and a sextet of starters to rival Boston's depth. Even expected regression from 2009 breakout starts like Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett should not prevent an overall offensive rebound keyed by free agent pushes from Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena.

Individually, the majority of Rays either should match or build on their 2009 performances. Top-to-bottom, this looks like no worse than the fifth best roster in the game, but with more than 20% of their games scheduled against the top two teams in baseball, Joe Maddon may not be able to hold off the coming roster rollover until the off-season.

The financially overextended Rays need to remain in the thick of AL East competition through the trade deadline, or else Crawford, Pena, and closer Rafael Soriano all should depart. With Boston and New York both looking equally loaded, another year of retrenchment in Tampa almost seems inevitable. However, simply trading that trio could net the club potential studs at first base (Pena to Atlanta for Freddie Freeman & Kris Medlen) and catcher (Soriano to Minnesota for Wilson Ramos), plus whatever haul an auction of Crawford can fetch from the Yankees, Angels, Rangers, White Sox, or Braves.

A couple of good breaks in the first half also easily could push this team into the post-season, but unless the team jells as perfectly as the 2008 club, we cannot expect a return playoff engagement for the Rays.

4. Toronto Blue Jays, 79-83

Lost amidst the six-month saga surrounding the departures of GM J.P. Ricciardi and franchise player Roy Halladay is the fact that little else changed on this team. Offensively, substituting John Buck, Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Gonzalez, and a full year of Travis Snider for Rod Barajas, Scott Rolen, Marco Scutaro, and Alex Rios simply does not suggest much regression on offensive. Even if Aaron Hill and Adam Lind lose ground as expected, Vernon Wells seemed a good rebound candidate before his unbelievable Week 1 performance, and guys like Encarnacion and Jose Bautista should manage respectable numbers.

The Jays' major problem remains their pitching staff, where the loss of Halladay deprives the team of their only reliable starter. Outside of Halladay and the Brandon League-for-Brandon Morrow swap, almost every other pitcher from 2009 returns this year, with many of them likely benefiting from last summer's trial-by-fire. If Shaun Marcum remains healthy and effective, this staff could surprise, though losing defensive assets like Rolen, Scutaro, and Rios could create other problems.

After a year plagued by bad luck and terrible waffling from the front office, Toronto might manage a slight increase in wins, giving Cito Gaston, one of only two AL managers with multiple World Series wins, a fitting final season in the dugout. Of course, if new GM Alex Anthopolous wants to maximize his club's chances for long-term success, mid-season trades of Lyle Overbay, Gonzalez, Bautista, and short relievers Jason Frasor and Kevin Gregg could cost Toronto several additional games, sinking the Jays into the division basement for only the second time in the past thirteen seasons.

5. Baltimore Orioles, 76-86

No team in baseball appears poised for more overall improvement than the Orioles, who easily could jump a dozen games in the standings despite an unimpressive slate of off-season additions. Instead, the players either retained or acquired in Andy MacPhail's rebuilding project suddenly comprise a respectable lineup and pitching staff. Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, and Adam Jones all qualify as potential superstars, and no worse than serviceable role players fill the rest of the roster. Nolan Reimold appears headed to first base eventually, leaving left field to Felix Pie and DH to Luke Scott, while Josh Bell soon should displace Miguel Tejada at third base. If Brian Roberts ever returns to full health, only shortstop appears an obvious hole on the team, especially after MacPhail missed a superb opportunity to flip someone like Pie to Milwaukee before the Brewers swapped J.J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez.

The lack of a reliable shortstop also looks like Baltimore's biggest long-term problem. At least a half dozen teams currently field starters that at best can be described as placeholders, and a look around the minors offers few solid replacement options. Baltimore's best option may involve convincing Tampa to part with someone from their stable of Jason Bartlett, Reid Brignac, and Tim Beckham, though given the competition for those players, perhaps simply targeting someone with the #3 pick this June will provide the best return.

Fortunately for Orioles fans, pitching no longer looks like a major issue in Baltimore. Potential Rookie of the year Brian Matusz essentially headlines a staff that soon should include Chris Tillman, Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, and Jake Arrieta, who comprise the best array of young pitchers to arrive since more than two decades ago when 1987-91 featured the debuts of Jose Mesa, Jeff Ballard, Bob Milacki, Curt Schilling, Pete Harnisch, Gregg Olson, Ben McDonald, Arthur Rhodes, and Mike Mussina.

While veteran options Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie provide nominal leadership, the future in Baltimore belongs to Matusz and his cohorts. Given the current composition of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, that future appears at least two years away, so MacPhail should look to keep fortifying the roster this summer by dealing prospective free agents Millwood, Miguel Tejada, Koji Uehara, Garrett Atkins, Ty Wigginton, Cesar Izturis, Will Ohman, and Mark Hendrickson. All these players could help contenders and none of them belongs on Baltimore's next playoff roster. Given MacPhail's success in dealing Tejada, Erik Bedard, and George Sherrill over the last couple of years, moving even a few of these guys could net the club another young talent infusion. Orioles fans even might be able to dream about sending Millwood, Tejada, Ohman and their 2010 salaries to the Dodgers for RHP James McDonald and Dee Gordon, perhaps the only true shortstop prospect likely available this July.

Completing a trade along those lines would cap a nice rebound season from a franchise no longer just treading water while helping fans to understand that one more last place finish remains a fair exchange for the chance to spend the rest of the decade once again challenging for a post-season berth in baseball's toughest division.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Anyone in an AL-only league that forces you to cut players traded to the NL should be wary of the prospective free agents on the Rays, Jays, and Orioles. While Crawford, Pena, and Soriano in particular will return good value on your investment in the first half, any failure of the club to keep pace in the East should prompt you to shop that trio with all alacrity. Owners of Frasor, Millwood, and Tejada also should think about beginning to pursue deals, especially after Frasor's excellent Week 1 performance.