Today's Fantasy Rx

Sometimes sabbaticals extend far longer than anticipated…

1. Washington: Jamie Hoffmann, OF, LAD; 25, B:R, TR:.
Traded to New York (A) as the PTBN for Brian Bruney.
73/257 for .284/.360/.455 with 8 HR, 48 RBI, 44 R, a 10/18 SB%,
and a 32:37 BB:K for AAA Albuquerque(PCL).
31/101 for .307/.457/.495 with 2 HR, 16 RBI, 25 R, a 5/8 SB%,
and a 22:18 BB:K for AA Chattanooga(SL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 45%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve outfielder.
Fantasy Potential: Little about this pick makes much sense, especially considering Brian Bruney's previous production for the Yankees, his new role as the Nationals' set-up man, and the non-tendering of Mike MacDougal that the Bruney acquisition occasioned. While Hoffmann appears fairly productive offensively and possesses roughly average tools across the board, he looks like a questionable fit for a team traditionally reluctant to employ youngsters in reserve roles. The ascendance of Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and Ramiro Pena over the last couple of years suggests a change in this philosophy, but Hoffmann still lacks that one defining skill to make me believe that he'll see more than sporadic playing time.

Although a Dollar Days bid might net a few bucks of profit if he breaks camp in the majors, I doubt the Yankees ever will provide Hoffmann the regular playing time necessary to approach double-digit value.

2. Pittsburgh: John Raynor, OF, FLO; 25, B:R, T:R.
115/447 for .257/.327/.360 with 6 HR, 36 RBI, 63 R, a 19/27 SB%,
and a 42:121 BB:K for AAA New Orleans(PCL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 20%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve outfielder.
Fantasy Potential: After posting a .402 OBP with 48 steals in the Southern League a year ago, Raynor failed to impress in the PCL. He still owns decent plate discipline and speed, but little here suggests potential beyond a decent bench asset. The crowded Pirate outfield creates a more pressing problem. Pittsburgh already appears committed to starting Andrew McCutchen, Lastings Milledge, and Garrett Jones, with the latter serving as either the first baseman or a corner outfielder. Between Jeff Clement, Brandon Moss, Steve Pearce, Delwyn Young, and any potential free agent signing, the competition for the remaining starting 1B/OF slot leaves little room for Raynor. He also does not appear a guaranteed bench candidate given the likelihood of Moss, Young, Ramon Vazquez, Jason Jaramillo, and probably Bobby Crosby claiming those roles.

Since serving as the club's 25th man seems his only path toward any playing time, his fantasy value appears rather minimal and quite tenuous at that. Don't roster him unless he begins stealing a few bases off the Pirates' bench. However, if Pittsburgh waives him and he lands on a team with limited outfield depth, such as the Jays, Cubs, or Brewers, the latent skills he demonstrated in the lower minors could surface, enabling him to emerge as a respectable fantasy asset

3. Baltimore: Ben Snyder, LHP, SF; 24, B:L, T:L.
Traded to Texas as the PTBN for Kevin Millwood.
4-4 and 1 Save on a 86:38 K:BB in 97 IP
with 82 H, 4 HR, a .68 G-F, and a 2.88 ERA for AA Connecticut(EL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 80%.
Probable Role if Kept: Left-handed specialist.
Fantasy Potential: While dealing Kevin Millwood and cash for Chris Ray and Snyder seems a loss for Texas, especially given Millwood's general success in Arlington, replacing Millwood's salary and roster slot with Ray, Snyder, and Rich Harden provides the Rangers a surprisingly solid return on the deal. Snyder struggled as a starter but blossomed in the bullpen, registering a 2.04 ERA in 70.2 IP over only 29 outings. More importantly for the Rangers, he compiled a 57:10 K:BB in 46.2 IP with 23 H and 1 HR against left-handers, suggesting he could thrive in the majors if kept to a specialist's role.

The downside to this situation is that Snyder, by virtue of pitching in Texas as a lefty specialist, likely will offer little value in any fantasy format (despite serving as a probable asset to the Rangers' attempt to dethrone the Angels in the AL West).

4. Kansas City: Edgar Osuna, LHP, ATL; 22, B:L, T:L.
4-4 on a 49:21 K:BB in 77.1 IP over 12 GS(13G)
with 74 H, 7 HR, a .59 G-F, and a 3.72 ERA for AA Mississippi(SL).
3-6 on a 56:14 K:BB in 72.2 IP over 14 GS
with 82 H, 4 HR, a .81 G-F, and a 4.33 ERA for A+ Myrtle Beach(Car).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty reliever.
Fantasy Potential: The Royals drained their roster dry of southpaws over the last couple of years, leaving only Dusty Hughes and Osuna on their 40-man roster at the moment. NRI Bruce Chen will compete with this duo for no less than two bullpen slots, but with a strong Mexican League performance supporting these numbers, Osuna merits a long look in camp. Given his age and apparent pitchability, he even could apprentice in the bullpen for a year before returning to the rotation down the line. Conversely, Kansas City just may have landed a nice Rule 5 complement to Joaquin Soria, and although Osuna likely never will dominate like Soria, he also possesses more long-term value than almost any other Rule 5 pick this year.

Wait until Osuna finds a stable role before even considering him, and unless he unexpectedly settles into a set-up role, don't expect to employ him on your fantasy rosters in 2010.

5. Cleveland: Hector Ambriz, RHP, ARI; 25, B:L, T:R.
9-9 on a 103:40 K:BB in 127.2 IP over 22 GS(23G)
with 164 H, 12 HR, a 1.14 G-F, and a 5.57 ERA for AAA Reno(PCL).
3-2 on a 32:6 K:BB in 29 IP over 5 GS
with 18 H, 1 HR, a 1.16 G-F, and a 2.17 ERA for AA Mobile(SL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Mop-up man.
Fantasy Potential: Apparently tired of a pitching staff populated with relatively soft-tossing southpaws like David Huff, Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and the injured Scott Lewis, Cleveland added a comparable right-hander in Ambriz. While he worked his way to the upper minors in perfectly respectable fashion, Ambriz has not posted particularly impressive numbers since his debut at Missoula in 2006, where he managed a 1.91 ERA on a 52:11 K:BB in 42.1 IP while starting only 4 out of his 15 appearances. Perhaps serving as the Indians' swingman will reinvigorate his pedestrian hit and strikeout rates, but unless the club's scouts believe his performance will spike in the bullpen, this pick does not seem to fit with Cleveland's quest for high-upside arms.

Barring both an unexpectedly important role on the Indians' pitching staff and a few solid performances, Ambriz should possess little fantasy value in 2010.

6. Arizona: Zach Kroenke, LHP, NYY; 25, B:R, T:L.
7-1 and 4 Saves on a 55:30 K:BB in 72.1 IP over 2 GS(36G)
with 54 H, 4 HR, a 1.17 G-F, and a 1.99 ERA for AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 90%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: Selected in last year's Rule 5 draft by the Marlins but eventually returned to the Yankees, Kroenke appears virtually certain to stick with the Diamondbacks given the club's rather fluid bullpen situation and this Triple-A performance. Although Kroenke continues to display somewhat questionable command, his continued success during his ascent up the minor league ladder makes him a good candidate for a relief job in the NL.

Unfortunately, Kroenke also appears largely useless in most fantasy formats since he likely will not leapfrog Chad Qualls, Juan Gutierrez, and Bobby Howry to see regular save opportunities, and his lack of dominance similarly leaves him too little upside to warrant usage as more than very short-term roster filler.

7. New York (N): Carlos Monasterios, RHP, PHI; 23, B:R, T:R.
Traded to Los Angeles (N) for ~$60K.
0-0 on a 4:2 K:BB in 7.1 IP over 1 GS(2G)
with 8 H, 0 HR, a 1.67 G-F, and a 3.68 ERA for AA Reading(EL).
5-6 and 2 Saves on a 71:27 K:BB in 82 IP over 7 GS(35G)
with 71 H, 4 HR, a 1.24 G-F, and a 3.73 ERA for A+ Clearwater(FSL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 33%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: One of two Rule 5 selections subsequently purchased by the Dodgers, Monasterios just might own the skills necessary to give Los Angeles another solid yet unheralded middle reliever in the mold of Cory Wade, Ramon Troncoso, and Ron Bellisario. A strong follow-up as a starter in the Venezuelan Winter League provides Monasterios additional credibility headed into spring training.

However, like Wade, Troncoso, and Bellisario, Monasterios won't merit a fantasy roster spot until he earns a regular role in the Dodgers' bullpen, a situation unsurprisingly complicated given the likelihood that all three aforementioned relievers will join Jonathan Broxton among the club's consistently respectable relief corps.

8. Houston: Jorge Jimenez, 3B, BOS; 25, B:L, T:R.
Traded to Florida as the PTBN for Matt Lindstrom.
144/498 for .289/.366/.422 with 13 HR, 87 RBI, 63 R, a 3/5 SB%,
and a 52:70 BB:K for AA Portland(EL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve infielder and possible starting third baseman.
Fantasy Potential: A mid-season All-Star the past two seasons and owner of a skill set largely missing from Florida's roster, Jimenez likely still needs a Dan Uggla trade to guarantee him a spot on the big league roster. His best-case scenario involves competing with Gaby Sanchez for regular at-bats, but with good plate discipline and consistently respectable averages, Jimenez at least looks like a decent replacement for the departed Ross Gload.

More than perhaps anyone else selected in this year's Rule 5 draft, Jimenez shouldn't hurt you if you risk a Dollar Days gamble. If everything breaks right, he also just might emerge as a 300 AB, .280/10/60 contributor worthy of your corner slot in deeper leagues.

9. Oakland: Robert Cassevah, RHP, LAA; 24, B:R, T:R.
3-7 and 4 Saves on a 45:37 K:BB in 73.1 IP over 57 G
with 64 H, 2 HR, a 4.03 G-F, and a 3.68 ERA for AA Arkansas(TL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 75%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Injuries and ineffectiveness led to additional bullpen churning for the Athletics, who released Santiago Casilla to clear room for Cassevah. With a 4.03 G-F that ranked among the best marks in organized baseball, Cassevah gives Oakland another sinkerballer capable of funneling groundballs to the club's increasingly strong infield. Although he lacks the command and dominance generally necessary to emerge into a key role, contributing as a poor man's Brad Ziegler, he should provide desired bullpen depth for the Athletics.

Cassevah offers too little upside to warrant regular work on any fantasy contender despite the likelihood that he shouldn't hurt you if you want to roster him sporadically.

10. Toronto: Zechry Zenicola, RHP, WAS; 24, B:R, T:R.
0-1 on 31:10 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 26 G
with 47 H, 2 HR, a 1.72 G-F, and a 7.56 ERA for AAA Syracuse(IL).
1-1 and 5 Saves on a 16:9 K:BB in 20.2 IP over 17 G
with 20 H, 0 HR, a 2.50 G-F, and a 1.74 ERA for AA Harrisburg(EL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: After shooting to Double-A almost immediately following his selection in the sixth round of the 2006 draft, Zenicola floundered in 2007, saw time at three levels in 2008, and then again failed to perform effectively at Triple-A this summer. While most of his skills continued developing, high hit rates kept his career Triple-A ERA above 7.50 in 78 IP, an inauspicious mark for someone moving into the AL East.

Perhaps erstwhile Washington Scouting Director and current Toronto Special Assistant to the GM, Dana Brown, still sees something special here, but despite Zenicola's potential long-term upside, nothing here suggests he should spend 2010 on the Jays' big league roster.

11. Milwaukee: Chuck Lofgren, LHP, CLE; 23, B:L, T:L.
6-10 on a 62:33 K:BB in 98.1 IP over 17 GS
with 94 H, 15 HR, a .59 G-F, and a 5.31 ERA for AAA Columbus(IL).
3-1 on a 31:15 K:BB in 42.2 IP over 8 GS
with 24 H, 1 HR, a .83 G-F, and a 1.48 ERA for AA Akron(EL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 40%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: Lofgren posted a sterling 2.32 ERA in 139.2 IP for A+ Kinston in 2006 and managed a comparatively impressive 4.37 ERA in 146.1 IP at Akron the following year. Arm problems then ruined his 2008, leaving him with a 5.99 ERA in 85.2 IP for Akron that summer. While he rebounded to some extent this year, he appears a vastly better fit alongside Mitch Stetter in the Brewers' bullpen than on an Indians club loaded with similar pitchers.

Lofgren certainly could reemerge as a decent starting option in a couple of years. However, his excellent 2.37 ERA against LH batters compared to an equally awful 6.01 mark against right-handers, likely means he will not see the extended opportunities necessary to amass positive fantasy value in 2010.

12. Chicago (N): Mike Parisi, RHP, STL; 26, B:R, T:R.
0-1 on a 4:3 K:BB in 7.2 IP over 2 GS
with 15 H, 0 HR, a 1.25 G-F, and an 8.22 ERA for A+ Palm Beach(FSL).
0-1 on a 9:4 K:BB in 7.2 IP over 3 GS
with 2 H, 0 HR, a 1.60 G-F, and a 1.17 ERA for R Cardinals(GCL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 20%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Parisi demonstrated decent command in the lower levels of the Cardinals' system before seemingly peaking at Triple-A, seeing 43 starts at Memphis before Tommy John surgery short-circuited his 2008 season. He returned to health this fall, impressed in the Arizona Fall League, and almost appeared set to compete for a job on the Cubs. Unfortunately, the acquisition of Carlos Silva leaves little room for a second long reliever, so unless Tom Gorzelanny unexpectedly loses the fifth starter's job, Parisi will struggle even to make the team.

In the unlikely event he breaks camp with the Cubs, Parisi just might merit an endgame play in deeper leagues, but most owners should avoid him given both his uncertain role and the tendency of pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery to need a complete year before regaining full effectiveness.

13. Tampa Bay: Armando Zerpa, LHP, BOS; 22, B:L, T:L.
Sold to Los Angeles (N) for ~$60K.
1-3 on a 27:21 K:BB in 29.2 IP over 16 G
with 26 H, 2 HR, a .93 G-F, and a 4.85 ERA for A+ Salem(CAR).
1-0 and 2 Saves on a 51:14 K:BB in 45 IP over 22 G
with 19 H, 0 HR, a 1.77 G-F, and a 1.20 ERA for A Greenville(SAL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 10%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: The Dodgers' bullpen already features two very accomplished lefties barring a trade of George Sherrill or Hong-chih Kuo. Scott Elbert, Brent Leach, and Eric Stults offer three more competent options, leaving little room for any other southpaw, particularly one as raw as Zerpa. While the Monasterios pick-up at least seemed mildly logical, Zerpa appears as risky as any Rule 5 pick this year. His excellent A-ball season notwithstanding, nothing here suggests he belongs above Double-A right now.

Zerpa simply is not worth your attention at this point given the strong likelihood that he will not manage positive fantasy value any time within the next few years.

14. Seattle: Kanekoa Texeira, RHP, NYY; 23, B:R, T:R.
9-6 and 2 Saves on an 88:43 K:BB in 101.1 IP over 6 GS (41G)
with 90 H, 7 HR, a 2.41 G-F, and a 2.84 ERA for AA Trenton(EL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 70%.
Probable Role if Kept: Swingman.
Fantasy Potential: Acquired from the White Sox a year ago as the throw-in with Nick Swisher, the Hawaiian sinkerballer thrived in a variety of roles. While he appeared unlikely to advance to the Yankees' bullpen, he could fit perfectly in the Mariners' relief corps alongside recent acquisition and fellow groundballer Brandon League. Texeira ranks as perhaps the lowest-risk pick of this draft, particularly given the superb defense and favorable home park that he will find in Seattle.

Like so many of Jack Zdurencik's acquisitions for the Mariners, Texeira could thrive in a low-pressure environment, making him a credible Dollar Days pick in deeper leagues, as well as a credible mid-season roster filler option.

15. San Francisco: Steve Johnson, RHP, BAL; 22, B:R, T:R.
3-2 on a 37:17 K:BB in 38 IP over 7 GS
with 24 H, 3 HR, a .38 G-F, and a 2.84 ERA for AA Bowie(EL).
1-1 on a 15:3 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 2 GS
with 8 H, 1 HR, a .55 G-F, and a 1.69 ERA for AA Chattanooga(SL).
8-4 on a 102:42 K:BB in 96.2 IP over 16 GS(18G)
with 94 H, 14 HR, a .62 G-F, and a 3.82 ERA for A+ Inland Empire(CAL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 55%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Any pitcher who can keep his ERA under 4.00 in the Cal League deserves a second look, which makes Johnson's availability in the draft so much more surprising after his acquisition by Baltimore with Josh Bell for George Sherrill at the July deadline. One of the Dodgers' better pitching prospects a year ago, Johnson nicely rebounded in his second tour at Inland Empire before his promotion and subsequent trade prompted even better results in the upper minors. Aside from an unfortunate flyball tendency, little here suggests that Johnson won't enjoy a respectable big league career.

Johnson probably possesses the best combination of short-term and long-term upside in this draft, though unless he claims either a significant bullpen role or sneaks into the back of the Giants' rotation, he probably will not possess more than minimal fantasy value in 2010.

16. St. Louis: Ben Jukich, LHP, CIN; 27, B:L, T:L.
9-6 on a 106:40 K:BB in 123 IP over 17 GS(29G)
with 125 H, 16 HR, a 1.36 G-F, and a 4.10 ERA for AAA Louisville(IL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 65%.
Probable Role if Kept: Swingman.
Fantasy Potential: The presence of Dennys Reyes and Trever Miller would leave little room for another southpaw in the bullpens of most teams, but Tony La Russa continues to prefer a trio of lefties. Jukich likely only will need to beat out top Cards prospect Jaime Garcia, who in any case appears destined for the rotation. Of course, Jukich also possesses the skills necessary to succeed as a starter, making him a good fit in St. Louis regardless of the composition of the rest of the pitching staff.

While you should wait until La Russa defines Jukich's role, he could emerge as an intriguing sleeper under almost any circumstances, albeit not one meriting much consideration on draft day.

17. Philadelphia: David Herndon, RHP, PHI; 24, B:R, T:R.
5-6 and 11 Saves on a 35:14 K:BB in 65.1 IP over 50 G
with 70 H, 9 HR, a 2.28 G-F, and a 3.03 ERA for AA Arkansas(TL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2010: 10%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Herndon's groundball rate and overall success make him worth this gamble by the Phillies, but little in his history suggests that he belongs in the majors at this time, particularly in the bullpen of the reigning two-time pennant winners. While Philadelphia's bullpen features a couple of openings right now, Herndon's lack of dominance makes him a particularly poor choice to fill one of those spots.

On a club fully prepared to contend for another World Series or two before Utley, Howard, Rollins, and Halladay all pass their respective primes, Herndon just doesn't appear a reasonable option for a team needing increased stability from its relief corps.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Unless John Raynor somehow finds semi-regular playing time, I expect the latter half of these players will outperform the top nine picks in both actual and fantasy value. Somehow some of the worst teams in the majors landed mere role players while a few erstwhile contenders, particularly the Mariners, Giants, and Cardinals, added pitchers with both decent skills and solid track records in the upper minors. Given the turnover of these clubs' bullpens, Kanekoa Texeira, Steve Johnson, and Ben Jukich also appear fairly likely to make the final roster cut. Of course, even these guys may not merit rostering in your spring drafts, an admitted departure from the Rule 5 classes that featured far more obvious picks like Josh Hamilton and Dan Uggla, who both were selected prior to the rule changes that delayed Rule 5 eligibility an extra season in almost all cases in accordance with the most recent CBA.