Today's Fantasy Rx

Beginning with today's article on Arizona's prospects, I'll review the minor leaguers who could succeed in the majors in 2008 if given the necessary playing time, discussing one franchise each day for the next month. While I undoubtedly will miss a few players who will shoot to the majors, I expect to cover most batters and pitchers who will lose their rookie status this season.

Unlike practically every other prospect analyst, I only look at the potential of these players for 2008 Rotisserie, Scoresheet, and other fantasy baseball teams. I rarely examine defensive-oriented players with few obvious offensive skills, nor do I analyze most pitchers with obvious flaws that should keep them in the minors indefinitely.

I consider prospects below AA only if they appear able to excel in AAA by the second half of 2008 or should possess significant trade value in keeper leagues. Of players who spent all of this year in short-season ball, only a few merit serious attention even in the deepest leagues as everyone else needs at least a full season of development time.

To simplify this process, I'm beginning with Arizona today before alphabetically progressing through the rest of the NL, followed by the AL in the same order.

I make no distinction between recognized prospects and minor league free agents if the player demonstrates fantasy potential, retains MLB rookie status for 2008, and should play for an affiliated team this year. If you know any decent prospects who missed the entire regular season like Humberto Sanchez, Josh Kinney, and Sean West, please e-mail me with their names so I don't accidentally miss them.

To help us provide these articles in a timelier fashion this year, we opted to omit the normal stat lines for each player. For detailed statistics for each player, we recommend Rotohelp readers consult Baseball Reference, Baseball America, Minor League Baseball, and The Baseball Cube.

Arizona's Top 15 Fantasy Prospects for 2008
Roster Filler and Long-Term Prospects
Team Overview and Organization Rankings

Arizona's Top 15 Fantasy Prospects for 2008

1. Billy Buckner, 24, RH Starter
Profile: Obtained from the Royals for Alberto Callaspo, Buckner appears the favorite for the fifth starter's job if Randy Johnson isn't healthy when the season begins. Buckner looks like a much better fit in Arizona than someone like Yusmeiro Petit, especially after posting an 83:26 K:BB in 104.2 IP for AAA Omaha(PCL). Of course, Buckner also flourished as a reliever in 2007, which just makes him even likelier to stick in the majors in some capacity. Taking a late-round flyer here could net you a nice complementary piece and a potentially excellent keeper for 2009.
2. Emilio Bonifacio, 22, 2B-R
Profile: The speedy second baseman stole another forty bases while spending the year at AA Mobile(SL). He even snuck into the majors in September, however since Bonifacio's batting average crashed after leaving the California League, he appears unlikely to develop into a big league regular. Expect to see him spend most of 2008 at Triple-A while occasionally serving as an injury replacement in Arizona. He unfortunately just appears quite blocked on the Diamondbacks by Orlando Hudson, Mark Reynolds, and Chris Burke.
2008 Fantasy Value: Roster filler with a chance to steal several bases down the stretch.

3. Juan Gutierrez, 24, RH Reliever
Profile: Stolen from Houston with Chris Burke and Chad Qualls for Jose Valverde's last two years of arbitration, Gutierrez could emerge as more valuable than Valverde by season's end. Given his past elbow pitchers and his declining dominance in the upper minors, Gutierrez appears destined for the bullpen, where he should flourish. Expect to see Gutierrez enter the closer competition sometime this summer, eventually emerging as no less than a capable replacement for pending free agent Juan Cruz. I see a lot to like here and recommend you keep an eye on Gutierrez's progress.
2008 Fantasy Value: Late-round bullpen flyer with a chance for double-digit saves.

4. Max Scherzer, 23, RH Starter
Profile: The 2006 first rounder from Missouri finally signed right at the deadline for '06 picks, posted a 30:2 K:BB in 17 California Leauge innings, and then spend the second half in the Southern league. Scherzer compiled a 4-4 record and 3.91 ERA on a 76:40 K:BB in 73.2 IP for AA Mobile, and given his inconsistent control his college, he could head to the bullpen in the near future. While nothing here suggests he should emerge as more than a middle-of-the-rotation option, scouts generally believe he could excel in a more limited role, which makes him a surprising decent late-round gamble in leagues that draft a couple dozen prospects. Finally, no profile of Scherzer can conclude without noting his heterochromia, a condition which gives his eyes different colors and only will add to his intimidation factor as a future closer.
2008 Fantasy Value: Mid-round minor league pick with a chance to approach $10 out of Arizona's bullpen down the stretch.

5.Alex Romero, 24, OF-S
Profile: The Diamondbacks claimed Minnesota's former to prospect off waivers last spring, then watched Romero compile a respectable .310/.354/.421 performance in 535 AB for AAA Tucson(PCL). He remains on their 40-man roster and currently appears slotted behind only Jeff Salazar in the competition for work as an outfield reserve. However, Arizona likely only will allocate two spots between Romero, Salazar, Robby Hammock, Augie Ojeda, and any further off-season additions, effectively relegating Romero to another year at Tucson. The good news for Romero is that switch-hitting outfielders with a .90 contact rate, decent speed, and good defense invariably reach the majors, and if he unexpectedly breaks camp with Arizona, he could produce surprising fantasy value for gambling owners.
2008 Fantasy Value: A Dollar Days' target with a good shot to return $5 of value.

6. Javier Brito, 24, 1B-R
Profile: Brito moved from the Cal League to AA Mobile without skipping a beat and even surpassed 400 AB for the first time. His .327/.433/.477 in a fairly neutral environment significantly elevates his prospect status, especially when coupled with a 78:90 BB:K in 440 AB. Unfortunately, Brito's upside appears quite similar to incumbent starter Conor Jackson, albeit without the same long-term potential. Consider Brito merely someone to monitor unless the club tires of Jackson's slow development and then also opts against moving Chad Tracy to first base.
2008 Fantasy Value: September roster filler.

7. Esmerling Vasquez, 24, RH Starter
Profile: After spending 2005 in the Midwest League as a reliever and transitioning to the rotation in the Cal league in 2006, Vasquez blossomed as a starter this summer at AA Mobile(SL). He compiled a 10-6 record and 2.99 ERA on an excellent 151:60 K:BB in 165.1 IP with only 125 H and 11 HR allowed. Suddenly Vasquez ranks with Arizona's best upper-level pitchers, giving him a surprisingly strong shot to see a couple of spot starts this summer. While he needs to repeat this performance at AAA Tucson before cementing his prospect status, Vasquez's development to date suggests he could enjoy a lengthy big league career if he can win a job with the Diamondbacks by 2009.
2008 Fantasy Value: Mid-season roster filler.

8. Jamie D'Antona, 25, 3B-R
Profile: After stalling in Double-A over the previous two-and-a-half seasons, D'Antona progressed to AAA Tucson and posted his best numbers since college, including a .308/.362/.499 performance in 483 AB. While he hasn't translated in doubles' power into much over-the-fence production, D'Antona at least should inherit Brian Barden's role on the Tucson-Phoenix shuttle. Expect to see him produce a couple bucks of fantasy value in a limited role before finding a more consistent role on the Diamondbacks' bench once Mark Reynolds and/or Chris Burke gain regular at-bats in 2009.
2008 Fantasy Value: Mid-season roster filler.

9. Brooks Brown, 22, RH Starter
Profile: Successful stints in both the California and Southern Leagues leave the 2006 first rounder on the cusp of Triple-A as he enters only his second full season as a professional. Through his control diminished in the upper minors, Brown appears on the path to develop into no less than a quality middle reliever while retaining the potential to emerge as a #3 starter due to his overall effectiveness. I suspect Arizona will give him a full year in the upper minors, but don't be surprised to see him in a limited capacity by year's end.
2008 Fantasy Value: September roster filler.

2008 Fantasy Value: A Dollar Days target with a chance to approach double-digit value.

10. Gerardo Parra, 20, OF-L
Profile: Arizona's best remaining outfield prospect didn't even reach the California League until the second half. Right now Parra's game mainly features decent speed and a good contact rate, and given the Diamondbacks' loaded outfield, he doesn't look like a good investment at this time. Check back in a year to see how he handles tougher competition.
2008 Fantasy Value: Trade bait in very deep leagues.

11. Connor Robertson, 26, RH Reliever
Profile: The throw-in sent to Arizona in the 6-for-2 Dan Haren deal, Robertson served as a reliever throughout his four years in Oakland's system, only reaching the majors at the very end of 2007. However, his career stats to date indicate surprising upside, including a 12.0 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, .3 HR/9, and a 7.7 H/9 in 234.1 innings as a professional. He'll challenge for a job in spring training and could develop into a late-inning option over the next few years.
2008 Fantasy Value: Roster filler.

12. Leo Rosales, 26, RH Reliever
Profile: Acquired from San Diego for Scott Hairston at the deadline, Rosales didn't pitch after June due to a broken pitching hand. However with a 2.51 career ERA on a 289:85 K:BB in 258.1 minor league innings, he possesses the background necessary to claim a significant big league role in the near future. I expect the Diamondbacks to give him an extended look this summer at the back of their bullpen, possibly even in a set-up role depending on how the rest of the relief corps develops.
2008 Fantasy Value: Roster filler with $5 upside.

13. Bill Murphy, 26, LH Reliever
Profile: While Murphy succeeded in a variety of roles last summer, he appears destined for the Diamondbacks' bullpen. His combination of high strikeout and groundball rates make him a real asset for any team, however Murphy conversely doesn't offer much immediate upside to roto teams given his likely role. He similarly won't belong on any sim teams until his walk rate drops.
2008 Fantasy Value: Mid-season roster filler.

14. Jarrod Parker, 19, RH Starter
Profile: Selected 10th overall last June out of an Indiana high school, Parker signed right at the deadline and didn't begin pitching professionally in 2007. While scouts believe he'll develop into a front-of-the-rotation starter, he also shouldn't reach the majors much before the contracts of current Arizona aces Brandon Webb and Dan Haren expire after 2010. I see no reason to target Parker in any league this spring.
2008 Fantasy Value: Trade bait for long-term prospect hounds.

15. Reid Mahon, 24, RH Reliever
Profile: The Minnesota product shot through the lower reaches of Arizona's system in his first full pro season, compiling a 1.62 ERA and 21 Saves on a 41:11 K:BB in 66.1 IP. Though he likely will struggle in the upper minors this summer, Mahon could join the Diamondbacks' bullpen down the stretch. However, he seemingly lacks the upside necessary to emerge as more than a decent middle reliever.
2008 Fantasy Value: Late-season roster filler.

Roster Filler and Long-Term Prospects

Clint Goocher, 25, LH Reliever
Profile: Goocher spend a third straight year in the Southern League, though by completing a move to the bullpen he at least appears much closer to the majors. With a 66:23 K:BB in 76.1 IP, Goocher should contend for a bullpen job as the club's second lefty. However, don't be surprised if he instead remains at AAA Tucson for much of the year. He needs a good performance in the PCL to remain in Arizona's plans.
2008 Fantasy Value: September roster filler at best.

Adam Howard, 24, RH Swingman
Profile: Continued movement between the rotation and bullpen prevented Howard from reaching the upper minors before his last appearance of 2007 despite spending the past three years in full-season ball. Consistent command and a very low homer rate give him some long-term potential, but only a full-time conversion to relief will speed his progress toward the majors. He probably will spend most of 2008 stuck in the Southern League.
2008 Fantasy Value: September roster filler.

Jailen Peguero, 26, RH Reliever
Profile: Signed as a minor league free agent a year ago, Peguero dominated the PCL for AAA Tucson, posting a 1.79 ERA on a 68:26 K:BB in 66.2 IP. He also spent three different stints in Arizona, finishing with a troublesome9.20 ERA on a 9:13 K:BB in 14.2 IP. While he remains on the 40-man roster and will compete for a bullpen job in spring training, Pegueo appears unlikely to emerge as more than a decent middle reliever.
2008 Fantasy Value: Roster filler.

Mike Schultz, 28, RH Reliever
Profile: Schultz spend the past three years bouncing around Arizona's upper minors, only reaching the majors for a token April appearance in 2007. His unimpressive skills unsurprisingly prompted the Diamondbacks to let him depart as a minor league free agent. Schultz's subsequent signing with Hiroshima will keep him out of affiliated baseball this year.
2008 Fantasy Value: None.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Arizona's long-term closer likely appears on the above list, though Tony Pena could prevent Juan Gutierrez or Max Scherzer from claiming that role. For 2008, neither of the latter two appear likely to impact the majors before the second half, making Billy Buckner the only prospect here worth targeting in most spring drafts.

Team Overview and Organization Rankings

While the last year resulted in the devastation of Arizona's minor league system, the Diamondbacks now feature a big league club loaded with both pre-arbitration young studs and All-Stars locked into three-year deals. No club features two perennial Cy Young candidates like Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, both locked down through 2010 for a total of $37.7M. Sparkplug outfielder Eric Byrnes costs $30M himself over the next three years, but those three give Arizona a stable veteran core, nicely augmented by #3 starter Doug Davis($16.5M in 2008-09) and third baseman Chad Tracy($15.5M through 2010). Although Orlando Hudson, Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, and Randy Johnson likely will depart by year's end, the Diamondbacks also will retain the remainder of the lineup for the next few years, including outfielders Chris Young and Justin Upton, infielders Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds, Conor Jackson, and Chris Burke, and catchers Chris Snyder and Miguel. Pitchers Micah Owings, Billy Buckner, Yusmeiro Petit, Dustin Nippert, Chad Qualls, Brandon Medders, and budding closer Tony Pena similarly remain under the club's control through 2010.

GM Josh Byrnes also signed NL Manager of the Year Bob Melvin through 2010, leaving Arizona better positioned than any other National League team to contend for the next three years. The only downside here is that the Diamondbacks raided their upper minors between augmenting the major league team and dealing for Dan Haren, but the system retains sufficient talent to provide annual infusions of a couple of players. Fantasy owners just stand a much better chance of seeing significant profit by targeting the club's maturing young big leaguers rather than gambling on mostly second-tier prospects with little chance of emerging as significant contributors in their initial seasons.

Current ranking of potentially helpful fantasy depth for teams already discussed in 2008, based on both the quality and quantity of players ready to contribute in the majors, as well as consideration of the trade value of low-level minor leaguers from each system:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks(B.Buckner)