Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our final 2007 AL LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. Please refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We included the DOM/DUL/DIS percentages for each qualifying pitcher, tabulating all data through the end of the regular season. Pitchers with no percentages did not pitch in the majors in 2007.

1
23BCYZ - Roger Clemens(35/24/41)
23ABX - C.C. Sabathia(65/26/9)
2ACX - John Lackey(61/24/15)
3ACX - Josh Beckett(70/20/10)
AY - Dan Haren(56/24/21)
A - Justin Verlander(53/22/25)

Clemens eked out the top spot for one last year despite his significant loss of consistency. The other five starters all obviously rank as far better bets for the future after each received serious Cy Young consideration in 2007.

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(76/18/6)
2abcxy - J.J. Putz(74/21/6)
abcxyz - Bobby Jenks(68/26/6)
abcxyz - Joe Nathan(62/35/3)
abx - Rafael Perez(59/30/11)
ax - Joakim Soria(56/24/19)
ax - Hideki Okajima(58/30/12)
ax - Matt Guerrier(51/34/15)

Rivera continues to cruise, but Putz, Jenks, and Nathan remain similarly solid values. Soria looks like the real surprise here, although all four of the less experienced pitchers here appear superb targets in most auctions.

2
ABCXYZ - Johan Santana(61/24/15)
ABC - Jeremy Bonderman(54/18/29)
C - Jose Contreras(27/27/47)

abcxyz - Scot Shields(54/30/17)
abcxyz - Chad Bradford(53/33/14)
abcyz - Mike MacDougal(50/24/26)
BYby - Francisco Liriano
aby - Dennys Reyes(50/20/30)
bxy - Alan Embree(46/40/15)
by - Brandon League(43/29/29)
Mike Myers(41/33/26)

3
ABCXZ - Felix Hernandez(50/33/17)
CXYZ - Roy Halladay(48/35/16)
Bcz - Julian Tavarez(26/26/48)
CZ - Andy Pettitte(41/26/32)
Y - Kevin Millwood(32/26/42)
Z - Bartolo Colon(28/28/44)

If he remains healthy, King Felix appears a superb post-hype candidate to vault into the top echelon of starters.

abcxyz - Huston Street(65/27/8)
abcxz - Todd Jones(60/22/17)
Aaron Fultz(43/37/20)

A
BCXZ - A.J. Burnett(60/20/20)
BCYZ - Kelvim Escobar(60/13/27)
BXby - Fausto Carmona(56/38/6)
XY - James Shields(52/35/13)
X - Dustin McGowan(56/26/19)
Javier Vazquez(53/22/25)
Jeremy Guthrie(50/19/31)

An opt-out clause gives Burnett plenty of incentive to continue posting great numbers, though Carmona's DIS rating is the number that jumps out here. Given his groundball tendency and solid control, few pitchers possess less downside. Treat Carmona as no less than Chien-ming Wang 2.0.
B
Y - Curt Schilling(29/38/33)
Y - Mike Mussina(41/19/41)
Joe Saunders(33/44/22)
Cha Seung Baek(25/42/33)

C
abx - Scott Downs(57/27/16)
Victor Zambrano(22/44/33)

X
Billy Buckner(40/40/20)
Joe Blanton(41/41/18)

A move to the NL could push Blanton toward $20 given his improving consistency.

Y
Luke Hudson(0/0/100)

a
Shaun Marcum(40/16/44)

bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(61/22/17)
bcxyz - Dan Wheeler(53/31/16)
bxy - Jon Papelbon(66/29/5)
bxy - C.J. Wilson(52/29/20)
cxz - Rafael Betancourt(62/24/15)
cxz - Al Reyes(56/25/20)
cxz - Eric Gagne(56/33/11)
xyz - Justin Speier(53/37/10)
by - Javier Lopez(56/23/21)
cz - David Riske(51/28/22)
xy - Joaquin Benoit(54/30/16)
xz - Manny Delcarmen(57/27/16)
b - Shawn Camp(60/8/32)
x - Joba Chamberlain(74/26/0)
x - John Bale(50/31/19)
x - Jeremy Accardo(55/27/19)
x - Ehren Wassermann(58/36/6)
x - Jensen Lewis(54/27/19)
z - Jason Frasor(55/22/24)
Brandon Morrow(50/22/28)
Carmen Cali(50/21/29)

Strictly looking at his skills, Eric Gagne still seems a dominant reliever and a potentially significant asset for the Brewers. Justin Speier similarly should continue to justify his contract with the Angels. Excellent lower-profile targets include Joaquin Benoit, Manny Delcarmen, Ehren Wassermann, and Jensen Lewis.

b
cyz - Juan Rincon(44/33/22)
cyz - Kyle Farnsworth(41/34/25)
cyz - Matt J. Miller(0/50/50)
xyz - Fernando Rodney(44/38/19)
cz - Kiko Calero(30/39/30)
y - Wes Littleton(43/23/34)
y - Jon Huber(56/11/33)
y - Joe Kennedy(35/35/30)
y - Scott Feldman(34/31/34)
y - Pat Neshek(49/31/20)
y - Mark Lowe(25/25/50)
y - Joe Nelson
z - Mike Burns
Luis Vizcaino(43/32/25)
Fernando Cabrera(36/18/45)
Tom Mastny(37/35/27)
Craig Breslow

Don't consider this placement any real indictment of Neshek, who missed ranking right behind Joba Chamberlin by a single bad outing. Also remember Fernando Rodney's name when trolling for sleeper saves candidates.

c
xyz - Mike Timlin(42/46/12)
xz - George Sherrill(49/36/15)
yz - Macay McBride(39/26/34)
x - Bobby Seay(47/45/9)
z - Tim Byrdak(46/33/21)
z - Jay Witasick(33/33/33)
z - Chris Reitsma(35/38/27)
z - Ron Villone(35/35/30)

x
Lenny DiNardo(30/20/50)

y - Sean Green(48/33/19)
Casey Janssen(46/34/20)
Brian Wolfe(47/37/16)
Kyle Snyder(30/52/17)
Andrew Brown(48/33/18)

Of these relatively low-risk, low-upside hurlers, Andrew Brown remains the one reliever with the potential to emerge as a significant late-inning force.

y
Joe Borowski(49/28/23)
Zach Miner(36/39/24)
Brian Burres(30/25/45)
Rick White(24/34/41)
Craig Hansen

While his qualitatively stats certainly failed to impress, Joe Borowski's general consistency makes him an excellent fit at the end of a stunningly deep Indians' bullpen that features five reliever with higher LPR rankings to handle the high-leverage situations.

z
Jose Capellan(18/35/47)
Ron Flores(35/29/35)

1 - K/0 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9, of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/0 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9, of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/0 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9, of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings

Today's Fantasy Rx: At average auction values, Mariano Rivera unsurprisingly laps the field as the lowest risk AL pitcher for 2008, followed at a distance by Bobby Jenks, Joe Nathan, Johan Santana, Scot Shields, and Chad Bradford. Each pitcher in this quintet possesses both a consistently high level of skill and a track record of fairly good health. Huston Street qualifies as slightly riskier bet, who nevertheless belongs on everyone's short list, and both Francisco Rodriguez and Dan Wheeler look like excellent investments in most leagues.